The Census Bureau report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, & Orders shows new orders declined 0.8% vs an Econoday consensus of 0.4%.

March was revised slightly higher, from +1.6% to +1.7%.

Summary

  • New orders for manufactured goods in April, down following two consecutive monthly increases, decreased$4.0 billion or 0.8 percent to $494.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 1.7 percent March increase.
  • Shipments, up eleven of the last twelve months, increased $0.1 billion or virtually unchanged to $492.8 billion. This followed a 0.7 percent March increase.
  • Unfilled orders, up five of the last six months, increased $5.4 billion or 0.5 percent to $1,153.1 billion. This followed a 0.8 percent March increase. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.73, up from 6.66 in March.
  • Inventories, up eighteen consecutive months, increased $2.2 billion or 0.3 percent to $666.9 billion. This followed a 0.2 percent March increase. The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.35, unchanged from March.

Spotlight on Inventories

  • Inventories of manufactured durable goods in April, up seventeen of the last eighteen months, increased $1.3 billion or 0.3 percent to $401.9 billion, unchanged from the previously published increase. This followed a 0.2 percent March increase.
  • Fabricated metal products, up fifteen of the last sixteen months, led the increase, $0.4 billion or 0.8 percent to $52.0 billion.
  • Inventories of manufactured nondurable goods, up ten consecutive months, increased $0.8 billion or 0.3 percent to $265.0 billion. This followed a 0.1 percent March increase.
  • Chemical products, up six of the last seven months, led the increase, $0.4 billion or 0.5percent to $87.8 billion.
  • By stage of fabrication, April materials and supplies increased 0.5 percent in durable goods and increased 0.3 percent nondurable goods. Work in process increased 0.5 percent in both durable goods and nondurable goods. Finished goods decreased 0.1 percent in durable goods and increased 0.2 percent in nondurable goods.

Manufacturers are clearly stockpiling inventories.

The inventory build does not appear to be tariff-related accumulation since it has been going on for 18 months overall and 17 of eighteen months for durable goods.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Durable Goods Orders Drop 0.8 Percent, March Revised Substantially Lower

The factory sector weakened in April following a strong but negatively revised March. Core capital goods orders fell 1%.

Durable Goods Orders Disappoint, Up on Aircraft Orders

Durable goods orders rose 1.3% in November. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders fell 0.1%.

Durable Goods Orders Decline 6.8% Led by Aircraft

Huge surges and declines in aircraft orders have made for extremely volatile durable goods orders lately.

Durable Goods Order Jump 4.5%, Almost Entirely on Aircraft

Durable goods orders jumped 4.5% in August. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders increased 0.1%.

Durable Goods Orders Rise 2.6%, Details Weak: Excluding Transportation 0%

The headline durable goods order is exceptional but nearly the entire rise is new aircraft orders.

Durable Goods Orders Plunge 1.2% Largely on Aircraft Orders

Durable Goods orders fell 1.2% led by aircraft down 18.6%. Autos orders rose 1.7% in a lingering hurricane effect.

Durable Goods Orders Dive 3.7%

The consensus got the direction right but not the magnitude. Economists expected durable goods orders to drop 2.0%.

About those Durable Goods Aircraft Orders: Undercurrents of Worry

Aircraft orders have helped pad durable goods new orders for some time. Will those orders translate into actual delivery? When?

Of Durable Goods Orders (and How to Buy an Election)

Durable goods orders in December jumped 2.4% led by defense department spending. Otherwise, it was a pathetic report.