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Economists missed the mark badly this month expecting a 0.4% rise in durable goods orders.

Instead, orders plunged 1.2% fueled by a 18.6% decline in aircraft orders, the most volatile component in the Census Bureau advance report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders for October.

Key Report Items

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In yet another hurricane artifact, automobile new orders rose 1.7%. In October, automobile new orders were 23.5% of all new orders.

The automotive segment will not keep humming for more than another month or two.

Shipments, which are a direct feed into GDP rose only 0.1% for the month.

It's easy enough to portray this report as being weak or strong, whatever your liking.

It's even easier to call it grossly distorted by volatile aircraft changes on top of an obvious hurricane impact in autos.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Durable Goods Orders Disappoint, Up on Aircraft Orders

Durable goods orders rose 1.3% in November. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders fell 0.1%.

Durable Goods Orders Decline 6.8% Led by Aircraft

Huge surges and declines in aircraft orders have made for extremely volatile durable goods orders lately.

Durable Goods Order Jump 4.5%, Almost Entirely on Aircraft

Durable goods orders jumped 4.5% in August. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders increased 0.1%.

131% Surge in Civilian Aircraft Orders Propels Durable Goods Report: Diving Into the Details

Durable goods orders rose a whopping 6.5% in June led by civilian aircraft orders.

About those Durable Goods Aircraft Orders: Undercurrents of Worry

Aircraft orders have helped pad durable goods new orders for some time. Will those orders translate into actual delivery? When?

Of Durable Goods Orders (and How to Buy an Election)

Durable goods orders in December jumped 2.4% led by defense department spending. Otherwise, it was a pathetic report.

Durable Goods Orders Dive 3.7%

The consensus got the direction right but not the magnitude. Economists expected durable goods orders to drop 2.0%.

Durable Goods Orders Rise 2.6%, Details Weak: Excluding Transportation 0%

The headline durable goods order is exceptional but nearly the entire rise is new aircraft orders.

Aircraft Orders: The Only Durable Goods Item Humming

Durable goods orders for March rose 0.7% vs an Econoday consensus of 1.1%. Revisions lifted February gains from1.7% to 2.3%. Once again the good news stops there.