After two record declines, the Advance Durable Goods report shows a 15.8% jump in May.
New Orders
- New orders for manufactured durable goods in May increased $26.6 billion or 15.8% to $194.4 billion.
- Excluding transportation, new orders increased 4.0%.
- Excluding defense, new orders increased 15.5%.
- Transportation equipment led the increase, $20.9 billion or 80.7 percent to $46.9 billion.
Shipments
- Shipments of manufactured durable goods in May, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased $8.4 billion or 4.4 percent to $198.5 billion.
- This followed an 18.6 percent April decrease. Transportation equipment, also up following two consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, $5.0 billion or 12.1 percent to $46.5 billion.
Inventories
- Inventories of manufactured durable goods in May, up three consecutive months, increased $0.3 billion or
0.1% to $425.1 billion. - This followed a virtually unchanged April increase. Transportation equipment, up twenty-two of the last twenty-three months, drove the increase, $1.3 billion or 0.9% to $144.1 billion.
Year-to-Date New Orders vs 2019
- Total: -13.6%
- Excluding Transportation: -4.0%
- Excluding Defense: -14.8%
- Manufacturing With Unfilled Orders: -11.1%
- Motor Vehicles and Parts: -28.6%
- Core Capital Goods: -17.4%
Year-to-Date Shipments vs 2019
- Total Shipments: -11.3%
- Excluding Transportation: -3.7%
- Excluding Defense: -12.0%
- Manufacturing With Unfilled Orders: -8.1%
- Motor Vehicles and Parts: -28.6%
- Core Capital Goods: -8.4%
Nondefense capital goods, known as core capital goods, are indicators of manufacturing capacity expansion.
The rebound is nice but the year-to-date numbers are a disaster.
Mish
Well if you look at it as a v is one half of a w guess everyones right.
Durable goods orders are still down 20% from the start of the April/May drops. Given the number of people continuing to collect unemployment, furlough, missed debt/rent payments, and salary cuts; I would say the economy’s potential is no more than 90% of that before COVID hit. That means the recovery will be a very short-lived, V-shape.
“Motor Vehicles and Parts: -28.6%”
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The manufacturers are getting desperate. Yesterday saw cable ad for Mazda – 72 months @ 0.0% + no payments for first 3 months.
“After two record declines, the Advance Durable Goods report shows a 15.8% jump in May.”
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First thing first. April and March revised lower.
The 15.8% jump in context:
seasonally adjusted total durable orders
May 2018 …. $246.483 billion
May 2019 …. $236.720 billion
May 2020 …. $194.419 billion