After two record declines, the Advance Durable Goods report shows a 15.8% jump in May.

New Orders 

  • New orders for manufactured durable goods in May increased $26.6 billion or 15.8% to $194.4 billion.
  • Excluding transportation, new orders increased 4.0%. 
  • Excluding defense, new orders increased 15.5%. 
  • Transportation equipment led the increase, $20.9 billion or 80.7 percent to $46.9 billion.

Shipments 

  • Shipments of manufactured durable goods in May, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased $8.4 billion or 4.4 percent to $198.5 billion. 
  • This followed an 18.6 percent April decrease. Transportation equipment, also up following two consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, $5.0 billion or 12.1 percent to $46.5 billion.  

Inventories

  • Inventories of manufactured durable goods in May, up three consecutive months, increased $0.3 billion or  0.1% to $425.1 billion. 
  • This followed a virtually unchanged April increase. Transportation equipment, up twenty-two of the last twenty-three months, drove the increase, $1.3 billion or 0.9% to $144.1 billion. 

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Year-to-Date New Orders vs 2019

  • Total: -13.6%
  • Excluding Transportation: -4.0%
  • Excluding Defense: -14.8%
  • Manufacturing With Unfilled Orders: -11.1%
  • Motor Vehicles and Parts: -28.6%
  • Core Capital Goods: -17.4%

Year-to-Date Shipments vs 2019

  • Total Shipments: -11.3%
  • Excluding Transportation: -3.7%
  • Excluding Defense: -12.0%
  • Manufacturing With Unfilled Orders: -8.1%
  • Motor Vehicles and Parts: -28.6%
  • Core Capital Goods: -8.4%

Nondefense capital goods, known as core capital goods, are indicators of manufacturing capacity expansion.

The rebound is nice but the year-to-date numbers are a disaster.

Mish

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