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The Census Bureau Advance Monthly Report on Durable Goods shows new orders rose 3.1% from a revised 3.5% decline in January.

Was January an outlier? Was February?

Perhaps the answer is neither if one averages the two months together. We saw the same thing happen in June and July. Strong months are followed by weak months and vice-versa, but muddle through has been the norm.

If this is the start of a renewed period of strength, the bond market displays no hint of it. 2-year and 5-year yields are a tad lower as I type. 30-year and 10-year yields are up two and one basis points respectively.

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Of course, the bond market could be reacting to trade wars or nothing at all, but there is no indication anywhere that factory strength is about to lift off.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock