The Census Bureau Advance Monthly Report on Durable Goods shows new orders rose 3.1% from a revised 3.5% decline in January.

Was January an outlier? Was February?

Perhaps the answer is neither if one averages the two months together. We saw the same thing happen in June and July. Strong months are followed by weak months and vice-versa, but muddle through has been the norm.

If this is the start of a renewed period of strength, the bond market displays no hint of it. 2-year and 5-year yields are a tad lower as I type. 30-year and 10-year yields are up two and one basis points respectively.


Of course, the bond market could be reacting to trade wars or nothing at all, but there is no indication anywhere that factory strength is about to lift off.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Durable Goods Orders Dive 3.7%

The consensus got the direction right but not the magnitude. Economists expected durable goods orders to drop 2.0%.

Durable Goods Orders Soar 2.7% With Aircraft and Cars Leading: Bond Market Yawns

Once again we have another seemingly hot economic report with the bond market giving a big yawn.

Durable Goods Orders Rise 2.6%, Details Weak: Excluding Transportation 0%

The headline durable goods order is exceptional but nearly the entire rise is new aircraft orders.

Durable Goods Order Jump 4.5%, Almost Entirely on Aircraft

Durable goods orders jumped 4.5% in August. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders increased 0.1%.

Durable Goods Orders Disappoint, Up on Aircraft Orders

Durable goods orders rose 1.3% in November. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders fell 0.1%.

Durable Goods Orders Decline By 1.6%, January Revised Lower

Durable goods orders declined 1.6% in February. January was revised from +0.4% to +0.1%.

Durable Goods Orders Jump on Defense Spending

Durable goods orders jumped 0.6% in October thanks to a surge in defense spending.

Of Durable Goods Orders (and How to Buy an Election)

Durable goods orders in December jumped 2.4% led by defense department spending. Otherwise, it was a pathetic report.

Durable Goods Orders Plunge 1.2% Largely on Aircraft Orders

Durable Goods orders fell 1.2% led by aircraft down 18.6%. Autos orders rose 1.7% in a lingering hurricane effect.