Temporary Happiness
Theresa May’s deal will get overwhelmingly clobbered in UK tomorrow. The usual circus will then ensue. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn will threaten a motion of no confidence.
The remainers will give passionate pleas. So will those who favor a hard Brexit as will those who want a super-Canada deal or a super-Norway deal.
Everyone, but those backing Theresa May will temporarily happy. But the temporary happiness will last for about 15 minutes.
Plan B
May will have 3 days to present Plan B.
She will do so but it will be the same as plan A. May will go to Jean-Claude Juncker who will be happy to write a set of non-binding lies on a napkin for May to present to parliament.
Will that be enough? Probably not. But it is unlikely to be meaningful then. If there is another rejection in Parliament, the EU might offer some equally meaningless non-binding gibberish about the backstop.
Nothing Has Changed
Eurointelligence has been amusing recently. Last week it thought a no-deal Brexit was the base scenario. Before that, for months it presented the case that May’s deal would get approved at the last minute.
Today, Eurointelligence writes “We argue that the most likely option is agreement on a amended version – possibly Norway – either after tomorrow’s vote or after a new election”.
For months, Eurointelligence stated “nothing has changed.” It also presented the view that new elections were an extremely low probability. “
Given last week’s opinion vs today’s opinion, something had to change somewhere.
Super-Norway?
The problem with an EEA “Norway” option is that the UK would be stuck in a customs union, unable to negotiate its own trade deals.
A Norway deal would also hold the UK to Schengen Agreement and open travel, thus the term super-Norway to carve out exclusions.
The UK would be stuck with the asinine agricultural rules of the EU.
Note that he EU is not even in a position to offer EEA membership, as this would also require the explicit consent of the existing EEA members as well as all the nations in the EU.
And finally, the UK would have to contribute to the EU forever.
Public Vote
Another UK vote is highly unlikely. No one wants it. Nor does the public.
But that does not prevent May from threatening such a vote to get her way.
Base Scenario
The base scenario, remains what it has been all along: a no deal Brexit.
In the absence of a no agreement on anything else, a no-deal Brexit wins.
Only One Vote Matters
The other fact of the matter is only the last vote counts. May will keep returning with the same idiotic deal over and over again unless Parliament approves some other option.
Meanwhile, despite what the EU says, they will keep extending the clock until they get a deal they like or a request from the UK for a Norway deal.
Stupidity May Rule
Despite the asininity of a Norway option, it is possible enough remainers, Labour and DUP MPs get together to request that option.
Should the UK opt for a Norway deal, they would have been better off not leaving.
Nonsense From Eurointelligence
Today Eurointelligence commented “We don’t think that this would be superior to the deal May negotiated, but it is surely superior to extreme options of a no-deal Brexit or a second referendum.”
Fearmongering is widespread. Planes wont fly, pets will be stuck in Europe, etc.
It is all complete nonsense. The way to get a good deal quickly is to leave cold turkey.
Super-Fast Deal
The EU is headed. German, French and Italian Industrial Production Crashed.
German exports to the the UK will plunge. The UK can stop the EU from fishing in its waters. The UK will stop paying into EU coffers.
Via Eurointelligence, “The best way forward, FAZ writes, would be for the UK to join the EU’s Common Transit Procedure as a third country. This treaty is used to facilitate trade with Norway and Switzerland, which are also not in the EU’s customs union. This would allow customs procedures to be shifted away from the physical border. There is, in other words, a notion of a managed no-deal.”
Bingo.
Stupidity vs Super-Stupidity
It is only if and when Theresa May gets a backbone, that the EU will listen.
And it would be super-fast, in EU terms, say within a year.
Unfortunately, it appears the primary options are stupidity vs super-stupidity.
Duty to Leave
Theresa May wasted two full years negotiating the worst trade deal in history.
All the while she lied “No deal is better than a bad deal.” Today she talks of a duty to leave. What a sorry joke.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
I haven’t followed it closely but watching how the world works Post-Lehman, the most likely outcome in my mind is that May or Corbyn gets a delay to run another referendum through Britain which will magically pass and this all goes away…all but the 48.5% that wanted Brexit will be happy.
“We all have a duty to implement the result of the referendum.”
Wrecks-It is not an implementation of the result of the referendum.
Finally, the EU killed the Empire, just as planned. 300 years is what Nostradamus predicted.
The Empire was built on “trust”, that the ,£ sterling was good as gold & silver.
1 £ sterling would be ” honoured” with 1 pound / 14 oz of Silver, which is why great britain started the opium wars with china to get the silver back from china by selling opium.
Revenge time coming back from China.
ONLY an idiot would prefer a piece of paper = 1 £ than 14 oz of silver.
At least the EEA doesn’t commit the UK indefinitely. In fact the UK can withdraw at any stage. This opens the door to a piece by piece exit from the EU. Given the impasse the UK currently finds itself in, this might be a sensible approach.
So many typos and missing words! “The EU is headed. ” What does that even mean? “Everyone, but those backing Theresa May will temporarily happy. ” Doesn’t mean what you want it to. Bad commas like confetti of unclear phrasing. Here is the blurb on the front page of the blog from an earlier story: “Chinese exports and imports even though China’s trade balance with the US rose. ” What?
The German stock market is looking like a textbook waterfall, which means a no-deal Brexit is expected.
Another point:
EFTA membership does NOT require adherence to the overly bureaucratic EU agriculture rules!
EFTA/EEA members have to use EU directives on free movement of products, services and workers and trade BUT they can individually decide their own agricultural policy.
Here it is from EFTA itself:
My predictions:
May’s incompetent deal that would create years of additional negotiations with EU and make UK a hostage of EU through the backstop (EU could decide when they allow UK to leave the backstop and demand all kinds of concessions during the years of new negotiations with EU that May’s deal would start) will LOSE and badly.
Corbyn will start the UK parliament NO confidence vote and May’s government will lose it.
Conservatives aka Tories will select a new leader within the 14 days they have after the NO confidence vote to elect a new Conservative leader who will be a Brexiteer pledging to exit EU in March with NO deal Brexit aka WTO trade Brexit but said Brexiteer will promise Conservative Remainers all kinds of goodies (government positions in the new government) and then they will pass the next confidence vote with DUP and Conservatives voting for Confidence since they are all terrified of the Venezuela loving Socialist Corbyn getting into power otherwise. There will be lots of posing from Conservtive Remainers how they are voting confidence to stop Corbyn.
UK will exit EU with NO-deal Brexit aka WTO-trade Brexit in March 2019 as scheduled and there will be NO hard border betwen Northern Ireland and Ireland since both UK and Ireland have promised they will NOT create a hard border.
EU will NOT get the 40 billion UK promised under May before Brexit negotiations even started and both French and German voters will get mad at Macron and Merkel for this.
German industry and French farmers and Dutch industry and Belgian industry will yell at their own politicians that trade with UK must be smooth and products will move smoothly and since UK exports less to EU than EU exports to UK that means UK will lower the taxes for export companies to make them lose in essence nothing in the tariffs and the new Uk government will make a big show how all excess tariff money will be spent on NHS.
There will be smuggling without paying tariffs on the Ireland and Northern Ireland border and UK will lose about 1 billion a year so the 40 billion UK saved by not paying 40 billion to EU will take care of this small tariff avoidance for the next 40 years.
After watching Uk thrive outside of EU next EU countries will be leaving EU in 2021-2023.
EFTA would NOT force UK to join Schengen!
Norway has decided to JOIN Schengen since Denmark, Sweden and Finland are part of Schengen and before EU membership Scandinavian/Nordic countries already had their own Nordic Council which had FREE movement between Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Iceland.
UK could join EFTA and:
Have their own bilateral trade deals in addition to getting access to the 38 trade deals EFTA has and the EEA/EU trade area.
Stay OUT of Schengen.
Only drawback for EFTA would be that it would require free movement of workers but this is SEPARATE from Schengen.
If you are getting this info you report from EuroIntelligence then I have to say they have some really CLUELESS writers when it comes to EFTA and Schengen…
From EFTA itself that:
“Can the EFTA Member States also sign bilateral free trade agreements?
Yes, the EFTA States are not obliged by the EFTA Convention to conclude preferential trade agreements as a group. They maintain the full right to enter into bilateral third-country arrangements.”
AND
“Schengen is not a part of the EEA Agreement. However, all of the four EFTA States participate in Schengen and Dublin through bilateral agreements and they all apply the provisions of the relevant Acquis.”
Mish, countries in EFTA really CAN negotiate their own trade deals with outside countries!
EFTA itself has trade deals with 38 countries but EFTA menbers can also individually negotiate bilateral trade deals with other countries.
I now get the same sick feeling everytime I see a pic of May like I get when I see a pic of Pelosi. Or worse yet, Feinstein. Are these people going to live forever? Only the best medical care for the country’s traitors.
ALL the chaos will contribute positively for the needed great RESET in the global markets! I welcome the SANITY forced back!