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Eat, Drink, and Be Merry

The message from today's retail sales report is Eat, Drink, and Be Merry shopping at Amazon.

The Commerce Department reports Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services jumped an unexpected 0.7% in July, fueled by a surge in non-store retailers and purchases at food and drinking places.

Amazon Impact

Amazon's impact on retail sales is easy to spot by comparing three-month totals of 2019 to last year.

May Through July 2019 vs 2018

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  • Nonstore Retailers: +14.2%
  • Department Stores: -5.5%
  • Sporting Goods Stores: -3.0%
  • Clothing Stores: -2.2%
  • Electronic Stores: -4.4%

No Hint of Recession Here

This report was much stronger than expected. The consensus estimate was a gain of 0.3%.

Yet, bond yields are down again.

The 30-year long bond yield is 1.982%, down 4.5 basis points from yesterday, and holding the lower yields I posted earlier this morning. See 30-Year Long Bond Yield Crashes Through 2% Mark to Record Low 1.98%.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock