In one of the biggest economic misses that I can recall, the Econoday durable goods consensus was overly optimistic by a whopping 3.9 percentage points after factoring in negative revisions.

Econoday Durable Goods Forecast

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​Advance Report Details

Let's dive into the Census Advance Durable Goods Report for more details.

New Orders

  • New orders for manufactured durable goods in November decreased $5.0 billion or 2.0 percent to $242.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down two of the last three months, followed a 0.2 percent October increase.
  • Excluding transportation, new orders were virtually unchanged.
  • Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.8 percent. Transportation equipment, also down two of the last three months, led the decrease, $4.9 billion or 5.9 percent to $79.2 billion.

Shipments

  • Shipments of manufactured durable goods in November, up following four consecutive monthly decreases, increased $0.2 billion or 0.1 percent to $251.6 billion.
  • This followed a 0.1 percent October decrease. Fabricated metal products, up three of the last four months, drove the increase, $0.3 billion or 1.0 percent to $34.1 billion.

Unfilled Orders

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  • Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in November, down two of the last three months, decreased $4.7 billion or 0.4 percent to $1,159.0 billion. This followed a virtually unchanged October increase.
  • Transportation equipment, down following four consecutive monthly increases, led the decrease, $4.6 billion or 0.6 percent to $790.3 billion.

Inventories

  • Inventories of manufactured durable goods in November, up sixteen of the last seventeen months, increased $1.8 billion or 0.4 percent to $434.0 billion. This followed a 0.4 percent October increase.
  • Transportation equipment, also up sixteen of the last seventeen months, drove the increase, $1.8 billion or 1.2 percent to $149.3 billion.

Capital Goods

  • Nondefense new orders for capital goods in November decreased $1.3 billion or 1.8 percent to $71.3 billion.
  • Shipments decreased $0.7 billion or 0.9 percent to $74.4 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $3.1 billion or 0.5 percent to $684.3 billion. Inventories increased $1.1 billion or 0.6 percent to $196.8 billion.
  • Defense new orders for capital goods in November decreased $5.5 billion or 35.6 percent to $10.0 billion.
  • Shipments decreased $0.1 billion or 0.5 percent to $12.8 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $2.7 billion or 1.7 percent to $158.2 billion. Inventories increased less than $0.1 billion or 0.2 percent to $24.3 billion.

Shockingly Bad Report

This was a shockingly bad report in the face of the GM strike that ended on October 25.

Economists expected a huge jump in orders that instead went hugely in reverse.

Yet, inventories are up 16 out of the last 17 months.

This forecast miss is on top of a large miss in new home sales estimates. For details, please see New Home Sales Badly Miss Expectations.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Durable Goods Orders Dive 3.7%

The consensus got the direction right but not the magnitude. Economists expected durable goods orders to drop 2.0%.

Durable Goods Orders Decline By 1.6%, January Revised Lower

Durable goods orders declined 1.6% in February. January was revised from +0.4% to +0.1%.

May-June Revision Ping-Pong Match Continues with Durable Goods

Durable goods orders rose 2.0% in June from a revised 2.3% decline in May.

Durable Goods Orders Drop 4.4% in October, Huge Negative Adjustment in September

Durable goods new orders fell 4.4% in October. The Census Department revised September from +0.8% to -0.1%.

Durable Goods Orders Drop 0.8 Percent, March Revised Substantially Lower

The factory sector weakened in April following a strong but negatively revised March. Core capital goods orders fell 1%.

Durable Goods Orders Disappoint, Up on Aircraft Orders

Durable goods orders rose 1.3% in November. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders fell 0.1%.

Durable Goods Orders Jump on Defense Spending

Durable goods orders jumped 0.6% in October thanks to a surge in defense spending.

Of Durable Goods Orders (and How to Buy an Election)

Durable goods orders in December jumped 2.4% led by defense department spending. Otherwise, it was a pathetic report.

Durable Goods Orders Increase 1% But Badly Miss Expectations

Economists expected durable goods orders to rise 3.2% in June vs. a reported 0.6% decline in May. They were not close.