In a Bloomberg video interview, ECRI co-founder Lakshman Achuthan says "Very Serious" Global Synchronized Growth Downturn Seen.

Achuthan also says the economy is "not vulnerable to a recessionary shock at the moment. That can change, but right now, no recession risk."

Achuthan added the global industrial cycle is slowing down.

Flash of Red

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"We don't necessarily have to go into recession as a result of that flash of red."

He concluded "Not at that window of vulnerability, yet", strongly emphasizing "yet", while adding "I am not playing this down at all. I think we have a very serious global synchronized downturn."

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How "very serious"? Not "very serious" enough to cause a recession "yet".

So, no matter what happens, Achuthan is well position to brag about the outcome.

In a few months we will see one of these:

  • See, I said it was very serious. We went into recession. You heard it here first.
  • See, I said no recession despite the trade wars.

That was a perfect noncommittal interview. I have never seen better. He will have future sound bites to support any possibility.

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