The Tories will get hammered in the EU elections. That much is well understood. But recriminations against Labour are far more bitter according to the Guardian Live Blog.

ITV’s political editor Robert Peston, Labour MEP, John Howarth, said: “Had Labour’s ‘high command’ set out to lose an election they could not have gone about it in a more convincing way”.

Result Announcement Shortly

  • National estimates are expected to start coming from 5 pm.
  • European Parliament-wide results projection will be released at 10.15 pm this evening after the last polling station on the continent has closed.
  • Provisional results for Britain will be released around 11 pm. This and the final Europe-wide results will be updated through the night.

What to Watch

The New York Times comments What to Watch For in the European Parliament Election Results.

With more than 400 million Europeans across the 28 countries of the European Union entitled to vote in the European Parliament elections that end on Sunday, the poll is, next to India, the largest democratic exercise in the world.

But since these elections began 40 years ago, when the bloc was only 15 countries, turnout to vote for the Parliament — the bloc’s only directly elected branch — has decreased every five years.

Populists

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There are varying strains of populists in Europe, and they do not all agree with one another.

But they are united for the most part in opposing immigration, strengthening Europe’s borders, hammering “the elites” and increasing the power of national governments against “Brussels,” a generic word for the European Union’s technocratic bureaucracy.

Key Items

  • Brexit Party Results: Nigel Farage's Brexit Party is expected to win the most UK seats
  • Turnout: Will it decline below the 42.6 percent of 2014, or will Europeans respond to calls from both populists and mainstream politicians who suggest that this election is important for the future of Europe?
  • Populists in France: Marine Le Pen's results may top that of French president Emmanuel Macron
  • Populists in Italy: How well will eurosceptic Italian leader Matteo Salvini do?

What to Expect

Anything.

European polls are notoriously inaccurate. Anything from 28% to 42% for the Brexit party would hardly be surprising. I will take a shot at 38%.

The battle between Macron and Le Pen is amusing but it's somewhat of a side show. Both are expected to get about 23%.

Does it really matter if it 23% vs 22% as opposed to 22% to 23% the other way? I fail to see how, but that is how the French newspapers portray it.

I will go out on a limb and suggest 24% for Le Pen and 22% for Macron. But I would not be surprised at all with a range of 20% to 26% for Le Pen.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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