Tariffs have not yet bit consumers in a big way. But they will. 
Please consider the Atlanta Fed report Firms’ Cost and Price Expectations in the Wake of Tariff Hikes
A striking feature of this year’s tariffs has been their (apparently) subdued impact on US retail price growth to date. Indeed, core goods prices (which exclude food and energy) have risen at an annualized rate of roughly 2 percent since the tariff announcements in early April.
From our perspective, an important place to look for answers to that debate ultimately rests with businesses—the price-setters in the economy. To that end, in this blog post we investigate cost and price expectations from the Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations (BIE) survey and The CFO Survey (a quarterly survey of CFOs that the Atlanta Fed conducts in partnership with the Richmond Fed and Duke University).
Around two-thirds of respondents to these surveys imported at least some portion of their inputs/supplies from abroad, while the rest source all their inputs domestically. We compare these two groups to see if importing firms—which are more exposed to tariffs—expect meaningfully different outcomes for their business.
Unit Cost Expectations by Input/Supply Source
Like unit cost expectations, average price growth expectations across both surveys remain elevated relative to last year. Most worrisome is that expectations among nonimporting firms have risen sharply.
The fact that firms not exposed to tariffs expect to accelerate price increases suggests some risk that inflationary pressures are broadening beyond those firms and industries directly affected by tariffs (a finding consistent with other recent Atlanta Fed research).
The standard thinking regarding tariffs is that they represent a one-time shift in the overall price level, but as Chair Powell noted in a speech last month, “A ‘one-time’ increase does not mean ‘all at once.’ Tariff increases will likely take some time to work their way through supply chains.”
Indeed, the lack of immediate passthrough might be related to gaps between the announcement and imposition of new tariffs, uncertainty over the where tariff rates will ultimately land, or the choice by importing firms to respond to tariff-related cost increases by squeezing their own profit margins rather than increasing prices to customers.
Responses to our business surveys suggest a delayed—but nevertheless meaningful—impact from tariffs. Firms’ unit cost and price growth expectations have risen markedly since this time last year, with prices expected to remain elevated into 2026. At the same time, even nonimporting firms that are not directly exposed to increased tariff rates expect an acceleration in price growth, suggesting some broadening of price pressures.
Key Cost Notes vs Prior Survey
- 0% of Firm’s Inputs Imported: 3.8% up from 3.4%
- ≥ 10% of Firm’s Inputs Imported: 4.7% up from 4.6%
- ≥ 20% of Firm’s Inputs Imported: 4.9% down from 5.3%
- ≥ 30% of Firm’s Inputs Imported: 5.7% up from 4.0%
Key Price Notes vs Prior Survey
- 0% of Firm’s Inputs Imported: 4.2% up from 3.8%
- ≥ 10% of Firm’s Inputs Imported: 4.3% up from 4.0%
- ≥ 20% of Firm’s Inputs Imported: 4.7% up from 4.3%
- ≥ 30% of Firm’s Inputs Imported: 5.1% up from 4.1%
Passthrough Expectations Percent (Expected Price/Expected Cost)
- 0% of Firm’s Inputs Imported: 110.5% of expected costs
- ≥ 10% of Firm’s Inputs Imported: 91.5% passthrough
- ≥ 20% of Firm’s Inputs Imported: 95.9% passthrough
- ≥ 30% of Firm’s Inputs Imported: 89.5% passthrough
These are not benign inflation numbers. Of course, costs may rise more or less than expected. And weakening demand may interfere with corporate price hike plans.
But in the absence of weakening demand (or Trump reducing tariffs), expect more inflation.
Worse yet is the continued possibility of stagflation. The bond market remains uncommitted, but gold acts like stagflation is the expected result.
Related Posts
October 11, 2025: Consumer Sentiment Edges Lower in October, Inflation Expectations 4.6 Percent
Consumer Sentiment as measured by University of Michigan drops slightly.
October 13, 2025: Fed Debates Whether a $6 Trillion Balance Sheet Is Ample
At its latest FOMC meeting, the Fed discussed the ampleness of $6 trillion.
October 10, 2025: 59% of Republicans and 82% of Independents Favor Extending Obamacare Subsidies
Democrats will win the government shutdown fight. Subsidies will be extended.
=gold near future contract=
Day’s Range 4,157.30 – 4,235.80
$4235
====
i thought 4200 some kind of local top, then correction oopsie…!! i was wrong .
it is 4600*4800 by end of year!
========
and night is still young! tomahawks for Ukraine, and Venezuela war
SO sad trump DID NOT GET NOBLE FOR PEACE!! /s
alx
October 13, 2025: Fed Debates Whether a $6 Trillion Balance Sheet Is Ample
So the Fed (=the banks that own the Fed, the government and your collective derrières) cannot decide whether they should be just satisfied with the $6 trillion they already printed and gave themselves, or they should graft-gift themselves more.
Check.
P.S. You, you have to work your ass off to obtain some of that illegal and unconstitutional Fed scrip that your (((overlords))) just digitally print for themselves with a few strokes of the computer keyboard.
Like Pink Floyd/Roger Waters said, “Haha, charade you are…”
Corporate greed. It is part of the capitalist fraud.
move to n korea, or cuba
No need to move just hang in here for a couple more years.
i meant – to get real life training!
no food, no hot water, criminals everywhere , etc
====
i grew up in late USSR/ Russia in 90x! so i am bulletproof
alx
Corporations are inanimate entites. Therefore, they can’t be greedy.
The shareholders could be greedy, but I think they just want a shot at a decent return, to fund their retirement. This is of course dependent on corporations and their employees investing in a Pension Plan. And me successfully investing in my 401k, IRA and a ROTH. If humans didn’t want MORE they would already be extinct.
Just remember how much prices went up and the dollar devalued before tariffs. Dollar devaluation has nothing to do with tariffs. It is caused by a manipulated currency.
It reminds me how prices can be sky high as a result of years of currency devaluation, and then people who don’t work or produce anything complain about wages going up because they think it will cause prices to go up. Prices have already gone up… past tense. The inflation boat has already sailed.
present perfect tense (sorry couldn’t resist)
Imperfect past tense, more of the same present tense, hoping for a better future tense participle
– Tariffs have not yet bit consumers in a big way. But they will.
> So far this year’s tariffs have had very little impact on Core Goods. In Fact 3% or slightly over is considered “Stable” so better than good really, to date!
>> It would make a lot of sense, that firms not exposed to tariffs, would stay far more competitive and stable by avoiding price increases if at all possible, which at the moment it appears to be. If the Democrats shut down ends up causing us more inflation and therefore inflationary pressures, that will change things to the bad side of the ledger.
– Tariff increases will likely take some time to work their way through supply chains.
> So not just yet, the big bad wolf… maybe never? Who knows, at this moment in time? Responses to the business surveys suggest a delayed impact from tariffs. Makes sense from the Data so far.
– At the same time, even non importing firms that are not directly exposed to increased tariff rates expect an acceleration in price growth, suggesting some broadening of price pressures.
> Much conjecture here… Perhaps a wait and see if it even has a chance to occur at all, by the looks of it so far. It does appear non-tariff related inflation is imminent, but that’s to be expected I would say, based upon how little has been paid back on what was Printed. We may just have to see how the Tariffs work out before facts appear there however.
At the retail level, dynamic pricing will contribute the most to price hikes.
“The fact that firms not exposed to tariffs expect to accelerate price increases suggests some risk that inflationary pressures are broadening beyond those firms and industries directly affected by tariffs”
Translation: Corporations LOVE INFLATION!!! In fact, they love it so much that they will increase prices whether their core inputs justify it or not. The bottom line is that modern capitalism expects you to maximize profits. Well, when you’ve got an inflating M2 money supply C/O the Fed that’s trying to inflate its way out of the debt spiral we find ourselves in, then companies are going to jack up prices.
Literally, the ONLY solution to the current crisis we find ourselves in is a BIG RECESSION. Nothing else is going to put prices back to equilibrium or near their mean.
NOTHING!
Yes, Inflation Will Be Everywhere. Real Estate, Metals, Commodities, TBills Are The Rule.
And that’s not counting insurance (medical, home, car, etc) skyrocketing
Medicare and federal employee health insurance is going up 12% starting in 2026 on top of higher deductibles. This is also on top of health care access and quality in the U.S. going down every year. Pay more for less.
Many people are cheering the $1 trillion in Medicaid cuts, but those cuts will affect *everyone* except those wealthy enough to afford concierge health care.
The modern voting moron understands that rich people are the only ones that matter. There motto is “We are poor but we love you above all others: sit on us, that we may be hydrated by your posterior perspiration.”
Typical cult stuff.
Debt expands, for the most part, in a linear fashion. Equity, commodity, producer, and consumer valuation prices for the most part, do likewise. When lofty asset prices disassociate with the economy’s underlying composite of ongoing jobs, wages, and accumulated private debt; asset prices devolve in a nonlinear fashion. That’s where the global asset-debt macroeconomic system is at the present moment; at the threshold of a nonlinear asset valuation decline …
Also known as a “crash”.
What we need to understand is whether MAGA-tariffs are productive or destructive. Other countries will be easier to deal with if they don’t simply think the US is being wrong-minded.
In other words, is this a grand experiment?
Tariffs do NOT work in the 21st Century as administered by Trump and his so-called economic advisors. If Trump wanted a broad “tariff” that European and Asian nations have implemented too it is called VAT. But that would require playing on an even playing field, something the Grifter-In-Chief and his inside trading buddies can’t abide by. Besides, it would also require nuance, a real world understanding of geopolitics, trade, accounting and economics, something the Donald has a difficult time understanding, gets bored with after a day or two and he has moved onto some other topic to keep his name above the fold and appeal to his narcissism and megalomania tendencies
Alexander Hamilton advocated subsidies as the better method to grow manufacturing before tariffs. Tariffs as taxes were selected on imported manufactured items that he and the Federalists thought were advantageous to assist both as source of revenue to build out America’s infrastructure as well as protect domestic industries that would assist in improving the early nation’s manufacturing base.
Tariffs were also implemented to pay off the war debt from the French, the Dutch and the Spanish.
Once a nation becomes advanced they no longer require to import capital or protect domestic manufacturing per se. There are exceptions, for example, steel, aluminum, chips, medicine, certain foodstuffs, etc., for the purpose of national security.
Price hikes hit sentiment instantly. That would draw big political heat, as there is still exhaustion from the last run-up (which sealed the Dems’ political fate). That would be an interesting stress test to see if the current culture war has created more resilient GOP political capital. But 2026 elections are in November — there could be plenty of pain before then.
Of course they expect (create) price hikes.
They get many of their inputs from importers.
Imo they kept them down this long 1 because tariffs have not fully kicked in. 2 they are trying to please trump so not to get his wrath
Prices go up followed by wages followed by prices going up etc etc. ai might change things a bit along with immigration policy. .
“The government and the banks had two unacceptable alternatives. If they stopped inflation, there would be immediate bankruptcies, unemployment, strikes, hunger, violence, collapse of civil order, insurrection and possibly even revolution.[37] If they continued the inflation, they would default on their foreign debt. However, attempting to avoid both unemployment and insolvency ultimately failed when Germany had both.[37]”
The above quote taken from:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_the_Weimar_Republic
I do not think it is a stretch to think we in the US are at the doorstep of the situation described above. Congress will not balance the budget for many reasons, but one is fear that cutting benefits will cost them their cush legislative seats as well as create riots, strikes and possibly more serious rebellion for the loss of freebees. However, continuing to run massive deficits and being burdened by a massive debt has now pushed the executive branch to lobby for lower interest rates that will only erode dollar purchasing power. That dog won’t hunt long as bond vigilantes including foreign central banks will want interest to be in excess of lost purchasing power or they will do something else with their dollars forcing the fed to step in with QE. That will only exacerbate the dollar value problem.
Our country has spent itself into a massive quagmire that will only be resolved via austerity. We can continue on the spend and print path to make things seem ok in the short term, but in the end the system crashes and we citizens will have to deal with the circumstances as they arise, in other words we will have no control over where the cuts occur nor their amplitude. Mr. Market will dictate the terms of our austerity.
The other path is to take our medicine now, cutting spending of our choosing below revenue to eliminate the deficit and start paying down the debt. It takes courage to take benefits away; it is also the right and honorable path forward, one that will preserve the nation. We may lose our nation continuing to borrow and spend beyond our means.
To me the choice is clear.
Seems like they could increase taxation on the top 10 percent and get much, much closer to a balanced budget, though you didn’t mention that.
The benefits are the only thing holding this country together.
So, since the Ronnie Reagan voodoo economics or neoliberalism policies there has been a $50T transfer from the working and middle classes to the wealthy through Federal Reserve and fiscal tax and spend policies and now the bottom 90% are to experience austerity or reverse Robin Hood.
Inflation bs. 1M DX dropped from Jan 2001 to Apr 2008. It popped up to 0.887 of the 2001/2008 waterfall. Then it dropped to a support line: Apr 2011 to June 2021 lows. DX osc on this line for 7 months building a cause. If it drops below 2009 high inflation will rise. If DX tests the highs, or rise above ==> gold and SPX will deflate.
u guys don’t deserve this comment !
The US dollar is being killed as the whole world switches to the Yuan and Yuan debts.
Tariffs are stagflationary. Add that to an already established inflation. Is there some rationale? Or is this a misguided emotional reaction?
I expect to hit a major lottery prize in 2026 also.
Tariffs may not have bitten consumers yet but consumers have been constantly bit for 4 straight years and are not prepared for those increases once they come–they’ve been assaulted relentlessly. And by they I mean me as well. Insurance premium increases are insane along with the underlying inflation in health care. There’s be no let up in food prices. But as you saw when the Fed lowered rates by 25bps they have an asymmetrical and skewed response to inflation, undercounting it and refusing to actually fight it to win for fear housing and stock prices will fall and worrying over jobs, their secondary or even tertiary mandate.
When health premiums are released to the general public — I’ve seen my company’s rates skyrocket — there will be a rebellion and Senators will be on a prong.
There are couple senators who would love to be on a prong. Miss Lindsey…
Troops are in place, & counting on a rebellion, so we can eliminate the need to vote.
It’s going to be funny when they try to stitch together riot videos out of a bunch of people dancing around in inflatable costumes.
I was just in Portland all last week for work. First time back there in 20 years and I must say it’s blossomed into such a fantastic city. We walked the neighborhoods on the East side, Forest Park, and downtown and i thought, “How the hell are they trying to sell this as some Mad Max beyond the Thunderdome city on fire?”
Weird people scare them. It’s a symptom of small mindedness.
From Perplexity:
Summary of homicide numbers since 2023 in Portland, OR:
This data reflects an encouraging trend of reduced violent crime in Portland after several years of historically high homicidee rates.
17 still ain’t zero though.
The entire time, Portland has been an absolutely wonderful place.
Unless you happened to get murdered. Or injured/crippled in an attack that didn’t result in murder, so didn’t get counted as a serious crime.
Shoot, that’s not even one decent sized mass shooting. Portlanders are slackin’.
New mayor took over Jan 2025; we re lucky cuz the former idiot mayor decline to run for his final third term, the idiot probably would have won. Portland dodged a bullet and needs to term out mayor after 2 terms.
Thanks for pointing this out. Every city has bad areas, but by and large Portland is a clean, well-kept city. People who doubt it should see it with google street view to see how wrong they are.
Don’t you get street view turned off… you know they’ll do it if he asks them to.
It is called doublespeak.
The FED supposedly is seeing a slowdown in the economy. We can still have inflation with a slowing economy if your currency is dropping. i.e. If the USD drops another 10% we will see at least 10% inflation in imports….but we could see prices in housing drop because of a slowing economy.
It will be interesting. We could see good that are imported like TVs, computers, cars, tools, and clothing all go up in price 10% because of a devalued currency. But we could also see interest rates drop to 3%, unemployment rates go up, and housing prices drip 10%.
BTW. They will just say health care costs a cause of tariffs. LOL
With the FED’s dual mandate, they have two different metrics they can use to justify raising or lowering rates.
Powell wants to keep Trump out of his hair, so he will lean to lowering rates to keep him pacified.
Powell is gone in May 2026. I think he fully intends to be in Trump’s craw until the very last day.
Not with all the republican gerrymandering. The more it shifts to one side or the other the more disgruntled voters will be needed to give them the boot. Their policies are unpopular but the. Wealthy donors love it. That is the reason trump has to uses exc orders on most policies.
Exec orders have grown for years on both sides — partly because of a deadlocked Congress. That goes back to a selfish voting public. For instance, we as a nation should have made some decisions on immigration reform decades ago via Congress. We should have done our rethinking of Middle East war authorizations via Congress. But it all lagged. There was still some observance of norms (as with the prez declaring emergencies under Congressional delegations of power), but this admin. finally threw everything out the window and just reinterpreted all powers to the max imaginable, IMO torturing the language and intent far beyond its origins. (There are precursors: Lincoln and FDR.) I see it more recently as a gradual increase in the practice, with a hockey-stick acceleration in 2025. (See project 2025 and its proponents, now in important seats).
Testing the system and resistance, as in the Lenin quote: “You probe with bayonets.”