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Existing Home Sales 7.0% Rebound in September

The median home price rose 13.3%, up for the 115th consecutive month.
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Existing Home Sales 2021-09

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports existing home sales rose 7.0% percent in September. 

Key Details

  • Existing-home sales on a seasonally adjusted annual rate rose 7% in September from August, with all regions showing an increase.
  • Total housing inventory at the end of September amounted to 1.27 million units, down 0.8% from August and down 13.0% from one year ago (1.46 million). 
  • From one year ago, the inventory of unsold homes decreased 13% to 1.27 million – equivalent to 2.4 months of the monthly sales pace. 
  • First-time buyers accounted for 28% of sales in September, down from 29% in August and 31% in September 2020. 
  • Individual investors or second-home buyers, who account for many cash sales, purchased 13% of homes in September, down from 15% in August but up from 12% in September 2020. All-cash sales accounted for 23% of transactions in September, up from both 22% in August and from 18% in September 2020.

Median Price 

  • The median existing-home price for all housing types in September was $352,800, up 13.3% from September 2020 ($311,500). 
  • This marks 115 straight months of year-over-year increases.

Houses are too expensive for most. Home price inflation does not show up in the CPI. Nor do stock market or junk bond bubbles constitute inflation.

Once again, people have become convinced that prices only go up and no price is too high to pay.

Case-Shiller Home Price Index

CS National, Top 10, CPI, PCE 2021-07

Median home price is not a good measure because it does not factor in location or the size of the home. 

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The Case Shiller Home Price index is a better measure of price because it only counts resales of the same home.

A Better Measure of Inflation

Inflation factoring in housing and medical expenses is much greater than the reported CPI. 

I publish an alternate measure of inflation that factors in housing every month on release of Case-Shiller home price data.

The Case-Shiller national home price index rose 19.7% from a year ago setting a new record for the series, easily beating the housing bubble max increase of 14.5%.

The BLS says the CPI for was up 5.37% from a year ago and rent was only up 1.91% from a year ago. 

For details, discussion, and more charts, please see Real Interest Rates Hit New Record Low as Home Prices Hit New Record High

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