Sales are down 0.2 percent on the month and nowhere for years.
The NAR reports Existing-Home Sales Decline 0.2 Percent in August.
Six Key Highlights
- Existing-home sales fall 0.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million.
- Sales are up 1.8% year-over-year.
- Median existing-home price for all housing types is $422,600 the 26th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases.
- Total housing inventory is down 1.3% from July and increased 11.7% from August 2024.
- Supply is 4.6 months at the current monthly sales pace.
- Sales are down 36.9 percent from the cycle high of 6.34 million in January of 2022.
Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist Comments
“Home sales have been sluggish over the past few years due to elevated mortgage rates and limited inventory,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “However, mortgage rates are declining and more inventory is coming to the market, which should boost sales in the coming months.”
“Record-high housing wealth and a record-high stock market will help current homeowners trade up and benefit the upper end of the market. However, sales of affordable homes are constrained by the lack of inventory,” Yun added. “The Midwest was the best-performing region last month, primarily due to relatively affordable market conditions. The median home price in the Midwest is 22 percent below the national median price.”
Hoot of the Day
Yun is now betting on a rising stock market to boost sales. But homes are still ridiculously priced and most won’t sell stocks to buy a home.
Existing-Home Sales Percent Change from Year Ago
With sales flatlining, year-over-year numbers will bounce around zero.
Existing-home sales Median Sales Price
It males little sense to not seasonally adjust prices but that is what’s available.
Prices peak in June every year so we can expect strong declines over the next six months.
I believe the post-Covid top is in for quite some time.
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August 23, 2025: It’s Now Twice as Expensive to Buy an Entry-Level Home than Rent
Thinking of buying a starter home? Be careful!
Powell Admits Prior Monetary Framework Was Hugely Flawed
At the annual Jackson Hole meeting this year Powell Admits Prior Monetary Framework Was Hugely Flawed
The Fed just announced a new monetary framework. Is it any better?
The short answer is the new framework is nearly as flawed as before, and the Fed still holds many disproved economic theories. See above for details.
The interest rate at 6.5% is not enough to crash this housing market and quite frankly there is a substantially higher percentage of homes that have no mortgage than in 2008. Additionally of the mortgages out there a large percentage are at 3-4% and those homeowners have been reluctant to sell their homes and loose that incredibly low rate.
Turnover is low for those reasons and while the FOMO crowd that went in at 7% chasing overpriced homes is large, it is not that large.
IMO it will take some kind of exogenous event to really crack this RE market. What might that look like:
Currency crisis in Italy, France or ???
War?
Massive earthquake in California?
Massive hurricane ravaging the entire east coast or gulf coast?
AI suddenly eating jobs and destabilizing society?
No solution to the funding of the US government?
Inflation spiraling out of control and a spike in interest rates?
And other ideas?
>>>
AI bubble bursts?
Another possibility is that AI does not prove to improve the bottom line and deployments fail. Redundant capacity clips the wings of Nvidia and Plantar leading to the bursting of the AI bubble?
All of this power plant development becomes unnecessary?
95% of deployments thus far have not been revenue positive…
The AI bubble bursting actually seems the most plausible?
>>>
Home sales will stay slow for decades. Inventory will also stay low. The reason is many people are locked in because they have more than $500,000 in gains. They will not move because the capital gains tax kicks at $500,000 for married couples. This is why boomers refuse to sell their home and downsize. Their home will be left in their estate so the kids can sell it tax free.
This is not 2008. Wolf has this all wrong.
Wolf is a gypsy: TX, Oklahoma, world tour, Japan, DC, NYC, SF. Wolf is always wrong. Boomers homes will be sold by their kids estate tax free. That’s why the Fed constrict supply !
You think your rationale for a few boomers wanting to avoid some home appreciation taxes (above a $500K freebie) will slow home sales “for decades”? Exactly how many boomers have this situation? Enough to slow home sales across the entire US ‘for decades’? I don’t think so. I think you live in a fantasy land in CA that doesn’t know how many boomers and other current and would-be homeowners live hand-to-mouth and would love to have your so-called problem.
And most of the boomers you’re referencing must not be very financially savvy to stay in a too-big-for-them-now home racking up massive home-maintenance expenses ‘for decades’. I’ve already had the talk with my parents about living the life they actually want and deserve and not to worry about trying to save me a few bucks on an inheritance I might receive from them a long time from now
As always, I say you should take your first chart back to 2019 or even 2017 to show what the amounts were pre-pandemic. It’s obvious that home prices went up during the pandemic because the buyer could afford more house at historically low mortgage rates. Those rates are gone for good and the market will start to turn over slowly but surely and prices will edge lower. The reason that so few homes are selling right now (and for the last 3 years) is that the price that a seller expects to receive for his home is based on 3 percent (+/-) rates, which don’t (and won’t) exist again any time soon. Sellers that price their homes 5 percent below market (+/-) right now are selling them immediately.
Tariffs are rising to cover the shutdown. When hundred of thousands will lose their jobs inflation will be down despite tariffs.
Mish, to be the only one on topic here. Do you see the 2008 writing on the wall here? I ask because at the very beginning of this blog 20 years ago you pretty much nailed predicting that crash as far back as 2005 and I’m wondering if you see it again here.
Bernanke told GW Bush: Mr president Billie f**k u up. Don’t stop a bubble bc people are in heaven. They love u. The bubble might explode after the 2008 election, during a dems presidency, If not, we can fix it. The Fed will raid people’s bank accounts to save the banks, bc FDIC isn’t good enough.
LENNAR RESULTS, copied below from Gemini:
=======================================
“Impact on profitability
The strategy to prioritize sales volume over profit took a significant toll on Lennar’s financial performance.
Lennar reported massive drops in the asking prices of their new homes.
The housing sector is gonna crash again.
I keep reading about Boomers which points to the idea that we are all IN THE SAME BOX: homeowners, greedy in keeping that “hanging on ” syndrome and reluctant to sell.
My wife and are I relatively well off and HOME LESS (We use “FREE”). Many of our friends were CHILD FREE and retained massive amounts of unspent (on kids) cash as well as NOT being affected by the Kids and and Grandkids begging for handouts. My older brother has two NEEDY daughters (both divorced, single Moms) and they are sucking them (my BRO and his 2nd wife) dry and ruining what could have been a great retirement.
Thus they are stuck in their home. Acreage, mowing, painting, gutters, etc.
My wife and I are homeless on purpose. It saves us THOUSANDS of dollars in Property Taxes and Insurance and more money on labor (most of it our own) and materials to keep our homes in good shape.
We escaped it and we rent short term and travel FULL time. We never looked back. We have no rug rats sucking us dry. THAT is the only plan that works out well with freedoms.
So you have done nothing of consequence in your life and you’re proud of it. You just “traveled” = moving around without doing anything worth mentioning. Noted.
David was a young ceo in silicon valley 40 years ago. After spending $300K on chronic disease, he is escaping death. His father is yelling at him behind his back.
Crazy stuff
“Median existing-home price for all housing types is $422,600 the 26th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases.”
This doesn’t square with the chart of “Existing-home sales Median Sales Price” which shows a $200 price increase over the last year. Is it possible that prices increased $16/month every month over the last year? Yes. Is it likely? No. Looking at the chart two years back makes the “26 months of consecutive increases” even more absurd.
I think we are stuck in this cycle as long s boomers do not move. Boomers fight pretty hard to stay in their homes. We are living longer and are healthier. Three friends had all planned to sell their homes this year, downsize and changed their minds. Wasn’t interest rates as they would have paid cash. Decided they were still healthy enough to stay put. But once that changes it will really impact the housing market and you might be looking at inventory surpluses.
Actually life expectancy is way down…
but i agree boomers almost always fight to stay in their homes.
And why not? My house has no steps, is paid for, and I don’t have to worry about the neighbors.
Apartment living does not appeal to me anymore, not that it ever did.
Actually, it’s back up: 78.4 years. My doctors ask me how I stay in such great shape. From the street to the 2nd story of my house is 59 steps. My yard is steep as heck. I mow it with a push mower. Only man, elderly, in my neighborhood who mows their own yard. Then the Doc’s accidentally found out I have a large mediastinal cyst that has collapsed ~2/3rds of one lung. Asymptomatic. I breathe just fine on 1.33. My mother did these steps for the last 9 years of her 97.999 years. They can have my guns, but they’ll have to pry this house out of my cold dead fingers. Unless I decide to build a new house on my 144 acres of spectacular natural beauty. Enticing.
No incentive to sell. That will change, when the next recession arrives. Until then, it’s almost irrelevant to report on existing home sales. New home sales is the correct barometer in determining the trajectory of the economy.
2025 so far was a good year. The Dow made a new all time high. Construction of new factories and data centers are rising. Consumption is high. The Iranian Empire was defeated. China was humiliated. The Europeans have their own Nablus and Jenin. We can’t solve the French, the UK and Germany problems. Pete Hegseth consolidates bc we have enough crazy Putas in the US.
Pete Hegseth consolidates bc we have enough crazy people in the US.
Amen, brother. Can’t wait hear what comes of his big powwow with all the generals.
I wonder if Russia & China will do anything provocative during that 24-hour period?
Free Palestine will be around.
ahahahah!!!!!!!!
USA gov runs 2 trln deficit. gov debt is $40 trln next year!
25*30% of federal revenues goes to ONLY SERVICING DEBT!
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country is divided between white/black,latinos, repubs/dems… they really really hate each other
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2 weeks ago young conservative fellow WAS SHOT LIVE!!! at campus…
and some folks again think IT WAS CIA, MOSSAD, ETC
WHAT IS SO GOOD? what planet are you from?
alx
The Iranian Empire was defeated.
====
ahahahh!!
Iran , ancient Persia, etc IS CRADLE OF HUMAN civilisation!!
that region (=Mesopotamia) was civilized thousands years before Christ!
google Code of Hammurabi
IRAN IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE!! EVER!!!!!
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at that time your ancestors still practiced hannibalism and married own daughters ,
all the time!
alx
The Iranian empire was defeated, bastard.
The Dow made a new all time high. Existing home prices are intact. People’s and banks assets are rising. New supply of privately owned 5+ units COMPLETED is down from 700K to 500K. Constricting supply preserve value. Inventory change GDPnow Q3 2025 is +0.63%. Consumers, loaded with assets, can’t stop spending. Q3 2025 is over next Tues. Before 2000 the 1997 correction was first before the1998 correction which tested 1997.
Thanks. It seemed as if nobody lost their heads 1997 – 1998, IIRC.
In 2010 SPX was stopped by1998 high. IN Oct 2011 it dropped below it. After 14 years, in 2012, SPX closed above 1998 high.
Yet Farmers need a bailout.
Federal Reserve Notes are NOT lawful American dollars according to the US Constitution and your “assets” are worthless because they are NOT based on lawful American dollars — instead, your DOW/SP500/NASDAQ stocks (and Bonds and Treasuries) are DERIVATIVES only of illegal antisemite jew bucks known as Federal Reserve Notes FALSELY aka (counterfeit fake) dollars.
Dual currencies – gold and silver – failed after Bismarck got reparation from France in gold. The greenback beat gold. UUP will beat bitcoin and gold. The Aramaic Talmud told your priest: raped 3 year girls, but your priest loves boys.
Noted. You prefer little girls.
The Talmud is a law book in Aramaic. I am not smart enough, like your priest, to study Jewish laws.
Considering how poor the quality of all drugs are coming out of China and India, why isn’t the standing ovation still in progress?
Yep. Standing ovation. Let’s cheer for higher pharma prices and possible shortages. Good thing Trump already lowered pharma prices by 1500%.
Welcome to the Golden Age!
Ivermectin is primarily made in China and India.
you do know we’re not talking about fentanyl
Angry Bear Blog… https://angrybearblog.com/2025/09/the-last-shoes-to-drop-have-dropped …“The last shoes to drop, have dropped” Recession
Trump announces 100 % tariff on any “branded or patented” pharmaceutical not actually produced in plants located within the US
Starts October 1.
Tariff ends when the manufacturer breaks ground for the plant
2022 report by PharmacyChecker found that 71% of top brand-name prescription drugs were made outside the U.S.
Thank Gawd.
It’s like an especially rancid TACO
8/11/25 “You know, we’ve cut drug prices by 1,200, 1,300 and 1,400, 1,500%,” Trump told reporters on Sunday, noting the reductions will start over the next two to three months. “I don’t mean 50%. I mean 14- 1,500%.”
That’s a lot of percent.
Everyone is saying so!