Existing-home sales show no signs of life despite falling mortgage rates.
The National Association of Realtors reports Existing-Home Sales Rise 0.5 Percent in November.
Month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast and South, showed no change in the West, and fell in the Midwest. Year-over-year sales showed no change in the Northeast and South, and decreased in the Midwest and West.
Key Numbers
- Month-Over-Month: +0.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.13 million.
- Year-Over-Year: -1.0 Percent
- Inventory: 1.43 million units, down 5.9% from October and up 7.5% from November 2024 (1.33 million)
- Supply: 4.2-month supply of unsold inventory, down from 4.4 months in October and up from 3.8 months in November 2024.
- Median Sales Price: $409,200, up 1.2% from one year ago ($404,400) – the 29th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases.
“Existing-home sales increased for the third straight month due to lower mortgage rates this autumn,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “However, inventory growth is beginning to stall. With distressed property sales at historic lows and housing wealth at an all-time high, homeowners are in no rush to list their properties during the winter months.”
Well, that didn’t happen. NAR seasonal adjustments are garbage. For four consecutive years the NAR shows seasonal increases between October and February. So, expect another couple of months of increases then declines.
Existing-Home Sales Supply
Despite all the moaning, supply of homes on a year-over-year basis is steadily rising, in both percentage terms and real terms give the flatline in sales.
Existing-home sales Median Sales Price
The trend in the median price of existing-homes is interesting in 2025.
In prior years, prices of all transactions peaked in June then slide towards December.
This year, there is a huge divergence between single-family and the overall median. The median price of single-family units has flatlined for 5 months.
Despite mortgage rates declining a full percentage point from 7.26 percent in mid-January to 6.29 percent in mid-December, existing home sales have gone virtually nowhere.
Home are still not affordable. Neither rising inventory nor falling mortgage rates have helped.
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In the allegedly best economy in history, people struggle with food, shelter, property taxes, and homeowner’s insurance.
Home sales are stagnant because no one can afford them. Youth and black unemployment has surged.
Health care costs are guaranteed to surge next year.
Yet, Trump goes on TV and tells everyone how great he is doing. Expect a further decline in his polling numbers.
Nike down 10% today. The consumer is falling apart. Trump/GOP own it 100%
319 days till mid-terms for the bleeding to potentially slow down otherwise, this economy is gonna bleed out.
In fairness Nike has been a dumpster fire. Other retail exposed names have put out good numbers and the overall picture seems mixed.
I stocked up on enough Saucony Liberty model (now discontinued) during Covid Theater sales to last me the rest of my life.
Real estate is local. The Northeast and Midwest are a seller’s market right now and have been for a few years ever since the supposed ‘crash’ in 2022.
Boise Idaho prices crashed in 2022 but since then they have steadily regained all those losses and are back at peak levels, ready to set new highs.
Louisiana had a dead housing market with weak price growth the last few years but this past year saw 5% YoY gains. All those other ‘cheap’ places like Kentucky and West Virginia have joined the bubble since the supposed ‘crash’ in 2022.
Despite the doom and gloom on the Florida and Texas housing markets, year over year prices there statewide are down less than 1% per Redfin, despite the fact some metros in those states saw significant drops.
Redfin is living in fantasy land.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0q6N-1k-uio
Trillions of inflation invested in these homes. Until it is evaporated no recovery is possible.
Correct. It’s all the Covid money sloshing through the system. It should finish settling around 2030.