Mortgage News Daily reports Existing Sales Beat Forecast Despite Taking a Hit From Hurricanes.

It was only a small gain, albeit larger than analysts expected, but after three straight months of sliding sales, the existing home sales report for September is still good news. NAR noted that "Ongoing supply shortages and recent hurricanes muted overall activity." This meant that even as sales were higher compared to August, they were down 1.5 percent year-over-year and were the second slowest of the year, trailing only those in August.Analysts polled by Econoday were looking for sales in the range of 5.1 to 5.4 million. The consensus was for 5.3 million units.Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, noted that September was the first time that sales had declined on an annual basis since July 2016. "Home sales in recent months remain at their lowest level of the year and are unable to break through, despite considerable buyer interest in most parts of the country," he said. "Realtors this fall continue to say the primary impediments stifling sales growth are the same as they have been all year: not enough listings - especially at the lower end of the market - and fast-rising prices that are straining the budgets of prospective buyers."There were an estimated 1.90 million existing homes for sale at the end of September, a 1.6 percent increase from August, but 6.4 percent fewer than the 2.03 million available for sale a year ago. The inventory has now fallen year-over-year for 28 consecutive months. Unsold inventory is estimated at a 4.2-month supply at the current sales pace, which is down from 4.5 months a year ago.Added Yun, "Sales activity likely would have been somewhat stronger if not for the fact that parts of Texas and South Florida - hit by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma - saw temporary, but notable declines." The median existing-home price for all housing types in September was $245,100, up 4.2 percent from the September 2016 median of $235,200. September's price increase marks the 67th straight month of year-over-year gains. The median existing single-family home price was $246,800, a 4.2 percent annual increase while condo prices were up 4.1 percent to a median of $231,300.The share of first-time buyers slipped again, from 31 percent in August to 29 percent, matching the lowest share since September 2015. Last September 34 percent of sales were to first-timers.

NAR Begs for Subsidies

NAR President William E. Brown, says Congress should keep in mind the barriers affecting prospective first-time buyers as they move forward with tax reform in the coming months. "There's no way around the fact that any proposal that marginalizes the mortgage interest deduction and eliminates state and local tax deductions essentially disincentives homeownership and is a potential tax hike on millions of middle-class homeowners," he said. "Reforming the tax code is a worthy goal, but it should not lead to the middle class, who primarily build wealth through owning a home, footing the bill. Instead, Congress should be looking at ways to ensure more creditworthy prospective buyers are able to achieve homeownership and enjoy its personal and wealth-building benefits."

Case Against Subsidies


  • Hundreds of affordable home programs made housing more expensive.
  • Government promotion of the "Ownership Society" fueled the housing bubble and led to the collapse of Fannie Mae.
  • Student loan programs made college education more expensive.
  • Obamacare made medical care more expensive.

The share of first-time buyers dipped again because few can afford them. When prices were low, everyone, including the NAR begged government and the Fed to do something. Both did, and bankers made out like bandits as millions of homes entered a foreclosure process.

Now that home prices are back at bubble levels, the NAR wants more government interference.

Government has no business promoting home ownership over renting. Government interference distorts the free market, and that's always a bad thing.

MIke "Mish: Shedlock

Existing Home Sales Best Since February 2007: Good as it Gets?

Existing home sales beat expectations with a climb to 5.71 million units, seasonally adjusted annualized (SAAR).

Existing Home Sales Rise First Time in Seven Months

Existing home sales rose 1.7%, the first increase since March. Year-over-year sales are down 5.1%.

Existing Home Sales Top Consensus

Existing home sales came in at 5.34M, seasonally adjusted annualize, topping the consensus estimate of 5.28M.

Existing Home Sales in June Dive 1.8 Percent: Same Old Problem? Second and Third Quarter Impact?

The wind down to the end of the second quarter is not going very well. Existing home sales in June fell 1.8% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 5.52 million. The Econoday consensus estimate was 5.58 million.

One Hell of a Seasonal Adjustment: NAR's Existing Home Sales Math

The NAR says existing home sales are down 2.2% from a year ago. The breakouts by price range do not seem to add up.

Existing Home Sales Dip From 18-Month High

Existing home sales fell 2.2% in Sep to 5.38 million units SAAR. Sales are barely in the Econoday consensus range.

Existing Home Sales Rise on Easy Comparisons

NAR spokesman Lawrence Yun was singing the praises of of a rebound in housing today. But comparisons are easy.

Existing Home Sales Unexpectedly Decline

Existing homes sales fell 0.4% in April. The Consensus expected a rise.

Existing Home Sales Decline Fourth Month

Economists missed the boat again this month expecting a small rebound in existing home sales. Instead, sales fell 0.7%.