Talks Going Well

The New York Times reports China Offers Trump a Trade Peace Deal. It May Not Be Enough.

Beijing’s effort so far adds up “to a modest adjustment of Chinese foreign economic policy,” said Scott Kennedy, a scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, “but nowhere close to the great leap in liberalization that the U.S. and others are seeking.”

Still, China has begun to budge. Last month, it dropped retaliatory measures on American-made cars and resumed purchases of American soybeans. It has also reduced tariffs on more than 700 categories of goods from around the world.

On cars and soybeans, American negotiators can claim some measure of victory. Soybean purchases have yet to reach earlier volumes, however, while Chinese imports of American-made cars are quite small since many are already made in China.

Chinese lawmakers last month released a draft of a proposed law that would stop local officials from forcing foreign companies to transfer their technology as a cost of doing business. The Trump Administration says that Chinese industries like cars and aviation have benefited from American technology.

The law may not change things meaningfully, said Donald Clarke, a specialist in Chinese law at George Washington University. The draft is vaguely worded, he said, and doesn’t acknowledge that the pressure American companies face to share their know-how often comes from behind-the-scenes maneuvering rather than strict government requirements.

The biggest sticking point in China’s package of concessions to the White House may be Made in China 2025, a government plan for developing high-tech industries. The Trump administration has repeatedly criticized the plan, saying that it is evidence that China unfairly supports its own companies over foreign competitors in the Chinese market.


Expect a "Great Announcement"

Both Trump and China need a deal. If there isn't a deal, China will again stop buying US agricultural products.

And Japan will be buying less US agricultural products thanks to a new Pacific trade agreement that Trump backed away from. See Remaking the TPP Without the US: US Ag Exports to Japan Will Plunge.

The tariff wars hurt both the US and China. Both nations want to save face.

Recall that Trump replaced NAFTA with great fanfare. The new agreement, USMCA, was nearly identical to the old agreement, but worse in one key aspect: legal protection of US companies against corrupt Mexican courts.

So expect another "great announcement" with minor tinkering around the edges.

Made in America

I have a basic question. If Trump can set a goal of made in America, and the French made in France, why can't China have a goal of made in China?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Hooray! "Substantial" Progress With China (Just Don't Ask Where)

Trump announced substantial progress but trade experts wonder where.

Corn Exports Plunge but Trump "Not Ready to Make a Deal With China"

Trade tensions will not go away as Trump keeps fanning the flames while putting on an air of nonchalance.

China Trade Deal "Success": Details None

The US and China both claim trade talk success. There are literally no details.

Trump Hails "Big Progress" on Trade Deal With China

Supposedly there is "big progress" on a comprehensive trade deal with China. Color me skeptical.

Trump Unwisely Escalates Trade War: Expect a "Rare Earth" Response From China

Trump's imposed more tariffs on China. If China retaliates, Trump will respond with tariffs on all imports from China

Trump Hints at Trade Deal With China After he Wins Reelection

The top Trade team from the US will meet with China but expectations are not high.

Trade Talks With China End in Impasse and Threats from China

If you thought Trump would bully China into an agreement you thought wrong.

No Foolin' This Time We're Close, Really Close to Trade Deal With China

Trump says we're really close to a deal with China but “major, major issues left,” says trade rep Robert Lighthizer.

Expect Yelling From China, Mexico, Europe, Importers

An Import Levy is on its way according to US tax policy chief Kevin Brady.