by Mish

West Texas Intermediate Crude Price

Crude is in a bear market, down about 22% since the December high. Price is lower in four consecutive months and five out of the last six.

On June 15, I reported Import Prices Dip, Export Prices Plunge.

Let’s explore the import/export price relationship to crude.

Import and Export Price Indexes vs. Crude

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Don’t be confused by the Fred titles that say “all commodities”.

The BLS says Import/Export Price Indexes contain “data on changes in the prices of nonmilitary goods and services traded between the U.S. and the rest of the world.”

Popular Reasons Not to Worry

  1. It’s transitory
  2. Kudlow says “Lower oil prices are unambiguously good for US economy”
  3. What people don’t spend on gasoline, they will spend elsewhere
  4. We have plenty of inflation elsewhere
  5. More QE baby! Bring it on!
  6. All of the above

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Import Prices Flat, Export Prices Decline 0.5%

The strong dollar dampers the tariff impact on import prices except energy. Export prices decline led by agriculture.

Import Prices Decline Year-Over-Year, Export Prices Slightly Positive

In the wake of the declining price of oil, import and export prices are on a downward slope.

Import and Export Prices Plunge

Economists underestimated the magnitude of a decline in import prices and missed the boat entirely on export prices.

Import Prices Dip as Expected, Export Prices Unexpectedly Dip: GDP and Forex Analysis

The BLS’ Import and Export Price Report for June shows Import and Exports prices both declined 0.2% from May. Econoday economists called import prices correctly but expected export prices would be flat.

Import Prices Decline, Export Prices Rise: Impact on 1st Quarter GDP Estimates?

The BLS report on Import and Export Prices shows prices of imports declined 0.2% in March following increases in each of the 3 previous months.

Import Prices Surge vs Export Prices: Bad News for GDP Forecasts

Both import and export prices rose in April but the primary surge is in import prices.

Export Prices +0.6%, Import Prices +0.3%

Export prices advancing faster than import prices. YoY import prices are up 3.3% but China, Japan, Mexico barely moved.

Import and Export Prices Surge on Rising Energy Prices

As with yesterday's Producer Price Report, a surge in import and export prices is energy related.

Export Prices Have Largest Monthly Decline Since 2015

Export prices declined a steep 1.1% in February the most since 2015. Import prices fell 0.5%.