Job revisions are the tip of the iceberg.
Payroll Disaster, Jobs Rise 73,000 but Massive Negative Revisions
On August 1, I commented Payroll Disaster, Jobs Rise 73,000 but Massive Negative Revisions
Monthly Revisions
- The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 125,000, from +144,000 to +19,000
- The change for June was revised down by 133,000, from +147,000 to +14,000.
- With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 258,000 lower than previously reported.
Negative Revision Fallout
The negative revision fallout has not yet started.
The nonfarm payroll reports feed Gross Domestic Income, consumer spending, and Industrial production estimates.
How Do Nonfarm Payrolls Impact GDI Estimates?
The nonfarm payroll data directly feeds into the calculation of wages and salaries, which constitutes the largest portion of GDI.
The number of employees, hours worked, and hourly earnings are used to estimate the overall wage and salary income generated in the economy, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
Wages and salaries are a significant component of GDI, historically accounting for approximately 50% of national income.
This makes nonfarm payroll data a vital input for understanding the income side of the economy and how it contributes to overall economic activity, says the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
The above from AI.
Do Nonfarm Payroll Estimates Influence Industrial Production Estimates?
Yes, Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) estimates can influence Industrial Production (IP) estimates, primarily through their influence on overall economic activity and, more specifically, through their impact on labor availability and costs
Nonfarm payroll is a key indicator of the labor market and overall economic health. When nonfarm payroll increases, it suggests businesses are hiring, potentially indicating economic growth and increased production needs.
Industrial production relies on labor as a crucial input. As the workforce expands (indicated by rising nonfarm payroll), industries have more available labor to ramp up production and meet increasing demand.A strong labor market can lead to increased consumer spending, further stimulating demand for goods and services. This increased demand can then translate into higher industrial production to meet those needs.
The Federal Reserve considers NFP data when making monetary policy decisions, such as adjusting interest rates. Higher-than-expected NFP growth may lead the Fed to raise interest rates to curb inflation, potentially impacting investment in industrial production facilities and technologies
Industrial production, particularly in manufacturing and other goods-producing sectors, heavily relies on labor.
The above from AI.
GDI and GDP
Since GDI and GDP are equivalents, if GDI is overstated, then so is GDP. And retail sales estimates are suspect if income is insufficient.
A plethora of negative revisions will cascade from the huge nonfarm payroll revisions.
Delinquency Transition by Age
There are other signs of economic stress.
For example, please note Troubling Trends in Student Loans, Auto Loans, and Credit Card Late Payments
90-day late payment delinquencies are elevated and rising.
Millennials and zoomers are the hardest hit by credit stress.
The chart itself is very reminiscent of the credit stress that preceded the Great Recession.
Birth-Death Model Analysis Suggests 979,000 Overstatement of Jobs
On August 1, I noted Birth-Death Model Analysis Suggests 979,000 Overstatement of Jobs
The BLS released Business Employment Dynamics for 2024 yesterday. Let’s discuss.
Continued Unemployment Claims Jump by 38,000
On August 7, I noted Continued Unemployment Claims Jump by 38,000 to New High Since Nov 6, 2021
Continued claims hit a new high for the move of 1.974 million. That’s not the full story.
Warning Signs Flashing Red Before the Revisions
On June 16, I commented QCEW Report Shows Overstatement of Jobs by the BLS is Increasing
The discrepancy between QCEW and the BLS jobs report is rising.
It is inexcusable for the BLS to not incorporate QCEW data as soon as possible.
The warning signs were there in Business Employment Dynamics, QCEW, Continued Claims, and late payments.
Expect more negative revisions, because they are coming.
I am headed to the hospital for tests. It is possible they keep me.
If so, I will not be here today or tomorrow to approve comments. If your IP address changes or your comment violates any rules, some of which I do not know, your comment will sit. I have scheduled posts for today and tomorrow so a post from me does not indicate I am back from the hospital, only a note from me. Someone repeat this comment on my next posts if you don’t hear from me.
Thanks
Godspeed, Mike. I hope they find out there is not a serious/progressing issue.
Get well soon.
Thanks for keeping us posted, I’ll make the rounds with the usual deities for your well being.
We Mish-heads need you healthy, Mish! Good luck.
Good luck. Cancer is scary I had my five year distant or local tumor warning in 2003, so 2008. But Cancer is always with you.
Stage 3 Melanoma since 2001.
I spoke with a stage 4 Liver guy and he said it bothered him that people would say he looked fine so why couldn’t he work. Just because something is unseen does not mean there is a problem and various terrors associated with that problem.Colon cancer moved into his liver.
Good guy, I hope he is still there.
Again good luck.
Thank up voters.
I sincerely hope no family has/is suffering.
Cancer is a disease that never leaves. People forget that.
Fear sits in your brain with every bump and pain for the rest of your life.
Best wishes.
Hope all goes well. Take your time.
Hopefully everything is good and you’re back soon!
We will keep you in our thoughts and hope all goes well.
Will do on the repeat.
Thank you for all you do!
>>>
Hoping that all the tests are good & you are still fit & in fighting mode! 🙂
wishes for the best
Take care Mike.
Best wishes for a rapid recovery.
Praying for you
Hope everything turns out ok.
Two scans today.
My heart is fine, operating normally. No issues with stents.
But I have some fluid buildup in lungs – cause unknown
Confirmed pericarditis – cause unknown – high rate of infection
We are going to try a couple of things and have some more tests scheduled
No exercise
Just saw this. Hoping everything works out for you Mish. Your work is much appreciated!
Get well, Mish. Longer term, resistance excercise, cardio, and low simple carbs is the way. Also, choosing your parents carefully.
Hope you get well soon. Wish you a speedy and full recovery.
get well. no exercise. lungs are #2 cleansing organs after the liver.
Get well soon!
Take Care Mish!
Regarding the ‘Milenials and zoomers’. Well spending $8.00 on a Starbucks latte and buying the latest iPhone every Year on credit May have not been the smartest financial move. The boomers that they hate are the ones (their parents) whi likely still pay for at least some of their bills and rent so they can buy the latest iPhone or folding phone and pay $4000 a month in Rent
Delinquencies 90 days plus, by age: sixteen years ago gen X and boomers were in
much more troubles than today zoomers and millennials. In 2009 9.5% of 18 to 20
were 90days+ delinquent. Today only 4.5% are seriously delinquent. Why: c/c and student loans
And this
CNN Admits “There’s No One Even Close” To Vance For 2028 Nomination
MTG or TULSI?
But will he win? Democrats think they will see a blue wave in 2026 to give them control of Congress (house and Senate) then win the presidency in 2028
And?
What do they have on Vance to investigate? Unless they have some massive policy give away like UBI there is no platform.
Vance sits right in the middle with little baggage like previous R candidate. Tulsi is ex Dem. MTG appeals to the Palestinian lib crowd.
Vance needs a woman VP.
If he can slide through the collapse and rebuild then his VP gets at least four more years.
It is the “NUDGING” that needs to be followed.
Like when Z starred in the Netflix series about a comedian becoming president of Ukraine. Or the way they slid Obama out with those smooth little nudges that toppled Hillary much to the old dem chagrin.
Rumor has it Trump ran for fun and still beat Hillary. Same rumor says Melania cried when he won and those were not victory tears.
Even with both sides rigging, anyone recall Bev Harris and Black Box voting from the BUSHCO days, Vance and a female VP keep the edge.
I mentioned natural disasters previously and how they will impact future prognostications.
Now this
Cal Fire reports that the Canyon Fire, which erupted yesterday afternoon near Piru, Ventura County, has exploded in size from 30 acres to 4,856 acres by early Friday morning, with 0% contained.
Take your time to get things right Mish.
Today’s super fast, AI powered, all encompassing, high tech world has made it so nothing is dependable and all information suspect.
We’ve transcended the Information Age, and have begun the Bullshit Age.
The problem as such lies with the market’s desire for immediate information. Surveys are imprecise and it takes a great deal longer to accumulate enough real data to post a more accurate reflection of the statistic in hand.
Other than extending the time before release, there do not appear any solutions to the revision problems.
Citing Benefits of 232 Tariffs, Century Aluminum Announces Restart to Bring Mt. Holly SC Plant to Full Production, Increasing U.S. Aluminum Production by 10%
08/07/25
CHICAGO, Aug. 07, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Century Aluminum Company (NASDAQ:CENX) has announced plans to restart over 50,000MT of idled production at its Mt. Holly, SC smelter. Century will invest approximately $50 million in the effort, create over 100 new jobs and boost U.S. domestic aluminum production by almost 10 percent. The restart will enable the plant, currently operating at 75 percent capacity, to achieve full production by June 30, 2026, a level not seen since 2015.
The restart comes as a direct result of President Trump’s application of Section 232 tariffs for primary aluminum, most recently increasing the tariffs to 50% on aluminum imports without exceptions or exemptions.
“Today’s announcement was made possible by President Trump’s commitment to onshoring manufacturing of critical metals, protecting America’s national security, and to protecting American workers in our industry whose expertise is needed to ensure future generations do not have to rely on foreign supplies to build our communities and grow our economy,” said CEO Jesse Gary. “Our team stands ready to continue leading the resurgence of domestic primary aluminum, starting with bringing our Mt. Holly smelter back to full production.”
At full capacity Mt. Holly smelter has an economic impact of over $890 million annually in the state of South Carolina, driven in part by the average wage of $100,000 for jobs directly supported by Century Aluminum, according to University of South Carolina study released in 2024.
The restart was made possible with the help of South Carolina Public Service Authority (Santee Cooper), Mt. Holly’s power supplier. The parties worked cooperatively to reach an agreement in principle to extend the current contract through 2031 to purchase the additional power necessary for the restart. The final details of the restart will be subject to a definitive agreement with Santee Cooper, along with confirmation of economic incentives provided by Berkeley County and the state of South Carolina.
Yep. US Aluminum smelters, like Mt Holly are uncompetitive internationally. Which is why Mt Holly was operating at less than capacity and struggling to stay afloat. It’s also why we import 50% of our aluminum at lower prices than what we can produce it for domestically.
But with 50% tariffs on aluminum imports, it throws Mt Holly a lifeline. They can raise prices by up to 50% and become profitable again. So they can increase production from 75% of capacity to 100%.
Which can reduce aluminum imports from 50% to 48% of US needs. And it will support a few of those $100,000 jobs.
But it will hurt all US companies that need aluminum in their production processes. A 50% increase will make our manufacturing industries that use aluminum a lot less competitive in the global marketplace.
And it means we have to import even more bauxite or alumina from Iceland, Jamaica, or Canada, in oder to produce that aluminum.. Because we can only supply 1% of the bauxite we need ourselves.
All the best to you Mish, get well soon!
No one bothered to answer why the Waymo people are called Luddites instead of technophobes?
Downward revision activity is to be expected when we have such tariff caused uncertainty in the markets and a Fed that continues to drain liquidity (albeit slowly).
Trumps declaration of economic war against our allies and competitors weakens the world economy and puts US manufacturers at a distinct dis-advantage. Therefore shedding costs and reducing CapEx becomes important in the preservation of capital.
The wealth effect from the amped up stock market is supporting consumption and summer travel for Americans as we skate onto thinner and thinner ice.
This too shall pass as winners are taken off the table (harvested) in the fall and the reality of job losses and falling home prices sets in against shortages of consumer goods and the inherent inflation those shortages create.
The consumers are about to get squeezed and I am looking for a 20% drop in the stock market as we roll into September-October-November time frame.
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China Just Launched Payment System in Africa to Replace US Dollar!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jep3NQ65vd0
Big Tech’s Investment Numbers Don’t Add Up
https://wallstreetsuntzu.com/market-marco/big-techs-investment-numbers-dont-add-up/
Tested: Microsoft Recall can still capture credit cards and passwords, a treasure trove for crooks
Our tests have shown there are ways to get around the promised security improvements
https://www.theregister.com/2025/08/01/microsoft_recall_captures_credit_card_info/?ref=news.itsfoss.com
OpenAI strikes $1 deal to deploy ChatGPT across entire U.S. federal government. One dollar buys the whole bureaucracy. What could go wrong?
https://citizenwatchreport.com/lets-put-it-in-charge-openais-tools-to-be-deployed-across-u-s-federal-government/
Trump says after 1-1.5 years, Tariffs on Foreign Pharmaceutical’s are going to Skyrocket to 250%
https://citizenwatchreport.com/trump-says-after-1-1-5-years-tariffs-on-foreign-pharmaceuticals-are-going-to-skyrocket-to-250/
To complicate matters even more.
Information overload can be a tool in psychological warfare, creating confusion, mistrust, and ultimately manipulating individuals and populations. By strategically deploying excessive and often contradictory information, adversaries can exploit cognitive biases, leading to disengagement, mental fatigue, and even psychological distress. This tactic can undermine stability, influence decision-making, and achieve strategic objectives without direct physical conflict.
Here’s a more detailed explanation:
Information Overload as a Weapon:
Psychological Warfare Applications:
Exploiting Cognitive Biases:
Information overload can make it harder for people to think critically, leading them to rely on heuristics and gut feelings, which can be easily manipulated.
Mental Health Consequences:
The constant bombardment of information can lead to stress, anxiety, and mental fatigue, impacting an individual’s ability to process information effectively and make sound judgments.
Disengagement and Paralysis:
In extreme cases, information overload can lead to a sense of helplessness and disengagement, making individuals less likely to participate in public discourse or challenge narratives.
Military Strategy:
On the battlefield, psychological operations (psy-ops) leverage information to demoralize enemy troops, create fear, and undermine their will to fight.
Social Engineering:
Information warfare tactics can be used to manipulate individuals and groups, leading them to act in ways that benefit the aggresso
That’s too much information to process.
Government and business love you.
Apple will be in contact soon.
Another one
https://citizenwatchreport.com/continuing-jobless-claims-have-just-been-a-straight-line-up-since-liberation-day-recession-already-awake-the-fed-sees-it-wall-streets-pretending-not-to/
Continuing Jobless Claims have just been a straight line up since Liberation Day. Recession already awake. The Fed sees it. Wall Street’s pretending not to.
Alot of people who were hired between 2021-2023 were incompetent and but for the serious labor shortage never should have been. Many got hired because they checked the right box for DEI
Don’t limit it to DEI. I thought most hires were BIGOV. After that tech H1B and a ton of part timers.
Stats were rigged every way possible.
DEI is minimal to part timers being counted as full.
All those lucky folks, liberated from their jobs… with the prospect of being liberated from their burdensom housing and possessions.
’tis truly a golden age of prosperity.
Jobs. To work you need a SS#. Unless its cash under table. So why can’t they get job numbers correct?
Fake SS. What happened is illegals paid into SS but will never receive the benefits.
Good while it is happening.
Within the next couple of years the complaints regarding lowering benefits due to lack of funding will never be tied to the illegal workers running SS single numbers or many duplicates.
But the reason they never get the numbers right is to keep everyone confused.
I posted an information overload AI condensed piece above.
I am utterly baffled why people who know that BIGOV and BIGBUS continually lie to us ever assume there is a magical hidden reality one may step into with real stats and facts.
SS# total on payroll – duplicate SS#, the latter meaning either the person working multiple jobs concurrently or identity theft use of SS#. A 50 year old computer program could figure this out.
Adding to the chaos
https://citizenwatchreport.com/canadas-job-market-collapses-as-40800-positions-vanish-in-july-youth-unemployment-soars-to-14-6-signs-of-recession-everywhere/
Canada’s job market collapses as 40,800 positions vanish in July, youth unemployment soars to 14.6%—signs of recession everywhere
https://citizenwatchreport.com/goldmans-housing-forecast-hides-94-cities-bleeding-under-the-5-threshold-while-spotlighting-a-sanitized-15-the-real-damage-is-buried-in-the-model/
Goldman’s housing forecast hides 94 cities bleeding under the 5% threshold while spotlighting a sanitized 15%, the real damage is buried in the model…
They say 55 cities will drop. That’s the public stat. But they model 149 metros for decline. That’s the internal sheet. The 55 are breach cases, 5%+ drops. The other 94 are sub-5% bleeds. Quiet. Undetectable. They spotlight the softest damage. They bury the rest under rebound projections. San Jose, Austin, Phoenix, San Diego flagged for 25%+ collapse. But they call it “overheated.” No stress curve. No timeline. No velocity. East Coast labeled “resilient.” But no modeling of rate stickiness or inventory distortion. They publish optimism. They model erosion. The 15% stat is real but it’s a decoy. The 39% model is buried. The omission is engineered.
Looks like Dear Leader is going to have to keep firing people until the only ones left print the numbers he wants in our reporting.
Yup, if numbers coming out before were questionable, they are all useless garbage moving forward. It really is turning into North Korea around here.
Got exit strategy?
Burrito, taco taco, burrito, taco taco taco
Don’t think just because I got a lot of money
I’ll give you taco-flavored kisses honey
Fulfill all your wishes
With my taco-flavored kisses
Taco taco, burrito burrito, taco taco
Fulfill all your wishes
With my taco-flavored kisses
Taco taco
At what point does the current Stagflation turn into deflation?
About the time the Russigate trials start.
To steal from another Aussie show distraction, ‘ BEARS!”.
Deflation can be pretty ugly and it can happen!
We are in uncharted waters with the economic war that Trump has declared on the our allies and competitors.
Got VIX?
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“Deflation can be pretty ugly and it can happen!”
Beer goggle night?