Heading into the July 31 FOMC meeting, there was a substantial 22% chance of a 50 basis point cut. Odds of a 50 basis point cut hit 50% at one point.

That speculation ended, for now, when Fed Chair Jerome Powell labeled the rate cut a "Mid-Cycle" Adjustment

In response, the yield curve inverted more, then more still on poor economic data.

Despite a Global Manufacturing Recession made worse by Trump's China tariffs and despite a Bond Market Screaming for More Rate Cuts, traders believe the Fed will take baby steps.

Rate Hike Odds For December


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Curiously, traders believe odds of a double cut and no cut are about equally likely.

One side is very wrong most likely, it's those who believe no more cuts.

Eventually the Fed will panic, and I suspect by the end of the year.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Another Fed Baby Step Cut Coming September 18

Unless something dramatically changes in the next 12 days, there will be another 25 basis point cut on September 18.

Fed Baby Steps Coming: What's Powell Up To?

The odds of a double rate cut in September plunged from 40% recently to 31% last week then to 0% today.

Recession Watch: Panic Fed Rate Cuts Coming Up

Fed fund futures say a rate cut cycle has started. The Fed disagrees but will soon come to its senses.

Market Expects Emergency Rate Cut by the Fed on Monday Morning

Jim Bianco at Bianco Research makes a case for an emergency rate cut and a recession.

Yield Curve and Spreads Ahead of the Fed Rate Cut Decision

Here is the final snapshot of the yield curve and spreads ahead of the first interest rate cut since 2008.

2019 Rate "Cuts" in Play

The market still expects the Fed to hike on Wednesday, but even the 3-Month yield is lower. Let's look ahead to 2019.

Shock and Awe Needed to Un-Invert the Yield Curve: Half-Point Cut Not Enough

What would it take to un-invert the yield curve? The answer is not as simple as the math suggests.

The Fed Will Cut Rates on March 18

It's now baked in the cake. The Fed will cut rates on March 18 and most likely at least twice more.

Near panic at the Fed

There is near panic at the Fed. You can see it in their statements even if you can’t hear in their voices.