Whatever inroads Labour was going to make are now very likely fully realized.
My table is from Opinion Polling for the 2019 United Kingdom General Election.
The table is missing a line. I added the latest Savanta ComRes Poll based on this Tweet.
Savanta ComRes
New @SavantaComRes poll for @Telegraph just out, with new prompting to replicate actual constituency ballot papers:
Con 42 (-1)
Lab 32 (-1)
LD 12 (-1)
BXP 3 (-1)
SNP 4 (+1)
Grn 2 (-1)
Other 6 (+5)— Andrew Hawkins (@PigsAndPolling) December 4, 2019
Polls vs Prior Polls by Same Pollster
Poll vs Prior Poll Synopsis
- Support for Tories has not budged one iota.
- Labour picked up a point at the expense of the Liberal Democrats
UK Poll Lead Changes by Pollster
Let’s assume you believe Opinium has the direction correct and Labour gained a whopping 4 percentage points.
OK, but please note Opinium’s starting point. Opinium has the Tory lead at 15 percentage points down from 19 percentage points.
Woah Nelly!
If you are a Labour backe you might object that a 15 point Tory lead cannot possibly be correct.
While “possible”, I am inclined to agree that the overall idea is highly unlikely. In fact, I think it is so unlikely that it is wise to exclude Opinium from the analysis. So, let’s do that.
UK Election Poll vs Prior Poll by Same Pollster Excluding Opinium
Poll vs Prior Poll Excluding Opinium Synopsis
- Support for Tories rose slightly vs no change
- Support for Labour rose 0.6 PP vs 1.0 PP prior
- The average Tory lead fell from 9.83 to 8.80 but the change in Tory lead also rose by 0.60 PP from -1.0 to -0.40.
Poll to Poll Stability
Tossing away Opinium as a flawed poll, the leads look like this: 10, 9, 7, 9, 9.
And by throwing away Opinium, the poll-to-poll change in leads looks like this: 0, 0, 0, 0, -2. The -2 swing in favor of Labour is to a plus 9 PP advantage for the Tories.
Which one of those results do you care to believe?
Labour’s Only Hope
The only hope for Labour is that every poll is seriously wrong and all of them in the same direction.
Seat by Seat
I will crunch the latest Savanta ComRes numbers on a seat-by-seat basis tomorrow. Given the overall lead has not changed, I expect the overall projections to be similar but with some number of seat-by seat changes.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
How economically damaging will Brexit be? link to cer.eu
Not even a hard Brexit could match the economic devastation brought about by a Corbyn government.
I believe Carl has the synopsis correct.
BTW there were no further gains for Labour in the raw polls in 2017 a week away. It was all model changes changes by the pollsters.
I expected little change and it “appears” to have happened. There is still a week though but very happy with these results now.
If these hold we are looking at a 25 to 60 seat majority. I have 48. Waiting for a YouGov update.
IMO A 6% lead should be safe enough for a conservative majority.
It is possible 4% would do.
Suppose Con-Lab lead stays at 10% +/-, would that suffice to pass Brexit or is Parliament going to stalemate Brexit again?
A 10% lead for Tories should give them a healthy majority. A lead below 7% is heading towards a hung Parliament and Brexit stalemate. Regional and tactical voting could still affect everything.
Yes. In reality any majority gets it done as Johnson will have a lot of obedient (at least initially) newbies as a lot of the rebels have gone and those that have stayed have agreed to to toe the line
I understand all candidates has to sign some kind of pledge about their full commitment to the Brexit deal
Realistically, a lead of 20 seats would be best
Survation, Opinium, and Deltapoll were the three that showed sizable gains by Labor. All three were comparisons to rather stale polls, before Nov. 23. To me it appears that all polls agree that Labor made gains prior to Nov. 23, and that they have gained nothing since.