Whatever inroads Labour was going to make are now very likely fully realized.

My table is from Opinion Polling for the 2019 United Kingdom General Election.

The table is missing a line. I added the latest Savanta ComRes Poll based on this Tweet.

Savanta ComRes

Polls vs Prior Polls by Same Pollster

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Poll vs Prior Poll Synopsis

  • Support for Tories has not budged one iota.
  • Labour picked up a point at the expense of the Liberal Democrats

UK Poll Lead Changes by Pollster

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Let's assume you believe Opinium has the direction correct and Labour gained a whopping 4 percentage points.

OK, but please note Opinium's starting point. Opinium has the Tory lead at 15 percentage points down from 19 percentage points.

Woah Nelly!

If you are a Labour backe you might object that a 15 point Tory lead cannot possibly be correct.


While "possible", I am inclined to agree that the overall idea is highly unlikely. In fact, I think it is so unlikely that it is wise to exclude Opinium from the analysis. So, let's do that.

UK Election Poll vs Prior Poll by Same Pollster Excluding Opinium

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Poll vs Prior Poll Excluding Opinium Synopsis

  • Support for Tories rose slightly vs no change
  • Support for Labour rose 0.6 PP vs 1.0 PP prior
  • The average Tory lead fell from 9.83 to 8.80 but the change in Tory lead also rose by 0.60 PP from -1.0 to -0.40.

Poll to Poll Stability

Tossing away Opinium as a flawed poll, the leads look like this: 10, 9, 7, 9, 9.

And by throwing away Opinium, the poll-to-poll change in leads looks like this: 0, 0, 0, 0, -2. The -2 swing in favor of Labour is to a plus 9 PP advantage for the Tories.

Which one of those results do you care to believe?

Labour's Only Hope

The only hope for Labour is that every poll is seriously wrong and all of them in the same direction.

Seat by Seat

I will crunch the latest Savanta ComRes numbers on a seat-by-seat basis tomorrow. Given the overall lead has not changed, I expect the overall projections to be similar but with some number of seat-by seat changes.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Labour Gaining at Expense of Liberal Democrats

UK Polls are tightening. Labour picked up support at expense of Liberal Democrats and undecided voters.

Conservatives Make Huge Gains at Labour's Expense in London

Recent polls show a big uptrend in Tory support in greater London, a traditional Labour stronghold.

Labour Losing Ground In Last Two Weeks

Polls have mostly stabilized since the end of October. On average, Labour has lost a percentage point.

Looking Like a Tory Blowout and Complete Collapse of Labour

I crunched the latest poll numbers region by region. It points to a blowout.

Tory Majority of 48 Based On Latest ComRes Data

The latest ComRes polling data suggests a Tory majority of 48 in the UK election a week from now.

UK Election Final Polls All Over the Place: Who's Right?

Still more polls are in. The Tory lead ranges from 5% to 11%.

Tories Take Crushing Lead in Latest Polls

The latest polls show increasing leads for the Tories. The trends by pollster are increasingly favorable as well.

UK Election Math: What are the Odds of a Hung Parliament?

With the UK general election less than five weeks away, let's analyze election chances.

How Much Recession Warning Did You Expect?

How often have you heard the stock market looks a year ahead of a recession?