by Mish

The Econoday Keynesian parrot was not happy. The parrot always wants your dollar to buy less and thus roots for higher import prices.

A boost in petroleum gave a lift to import prices while a boost from agricultural gave a boost to export prices. Import prices in July posted an as-expected 0.1 percent increase as petroleum was up 0.7 percent in the month. Outside of petroleum, however, July import prices limped in at no change. Prices of finished exports remain dead flat, at or near zero whether month-on-month or year-on-year. The yearly rate for overall imports is steady at a modest 1.5 percent.
Export prices rose a stronger-than-expected 0.4 percent with agricultural products up 2.1 percent to more than shave in half sharp declines in the two prior months. Prices for finished exports, like finished imports, are flat with consumer goods, at minus 1.7 percent year-on-year, especially weak. Total export prices are up only 0.8 percent year-on-year which is not good news for the nation’s exporters.
But what is good news for exporters is the tangible decline underway in the dollar. This points to increasing pressure for import prices which, though making them less affordable to U.S. buyers, will help the Federal Reserve in its efforts to stimulate inflation.

Export Prices


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This report may give a tiny boost to third quarter GDP estimates. It takes a substantial move in import or export prices to move GDP more than a tick or two.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Import Prices Flat, Export Prices Decline 0.5%

The strong dollar dampers the tariff impact on import prices except energy. Export prices decline led by agriculture.

Import Prices Jump 0.5% Led by Fuel, Export Prices Flat but Ag Prices Down 1.4%

Import prices jumped 0.5% while export prices were flat. The inflation hawks will yap. So will Trump about soybeans.

Import and Export Prices Surge on Rising Energy Prices

As with yesterday's Producer Price Report, a surge in import and export prices is energy related.

Import and Export Prices Unexpectedly Dive

Headline price inflation numbers on imports and exports both came in well below consensus estimates.

Import Prices Decline, Export Prices Rise: Impact on 1st Quarter GDP Estimates?

The BLS report on Import and Export Prices shows prices of imports declined 0.2% in March following increases in each of the 3 previous months.

Import and Export Prices Plunge

Economists underestimated the magnitude of a decline in import prices and missed the boat entirely on export prices.

Little Signs of Life in Import and Export Prices

Import prices rose only 0.1% in December despite a 1.8% jump in energy. Export prices fell 0.1%.

Import Prices Dip as Expected, Export Prices Unexpectedly Dip: GDP and Forex Analysis

The BLS’ Import and Export Price Report for June shows Import and Exports prices both declined 0.2% from May. Econoday economists called import prices correctly but expected export prices would be flat.

Import Prices Surge vs Export Prices: Bad News for GDP Forecasts

Both import and export prices rose in April but the primary surge is in import prices.