by Mish

Aircraft orders which have a very long lead time skewed the results higher.

Strength in aircraft orders is masking what is not a favorable factory orders report where the January headline rose a nearly as-expected 1.2 percent. When excluding transportation equipment, orders rose only 0.3 percent. And when looking at core capital goods (nondefense ex-aircraft) the results turn decidedly weak, at a 0.1 percent decline for orders which points to softness ahead for related shipments. And shipments were already in contraction in January, falling 0.4 percent.
There is no revision to December’s headline though there is one for unfilled orders which are pushed down another tenth to a very steep minus 0.8 percent. In January, unfilled orders fell 0.4 percent for the 7th decline in 8 months in the worst streak of the economic cycle. This is not a good sign for factory employment.
Turning back to new orders, nondurable goods helped January reflecting gains for petroleum and coal where prices were on the rise during the month. Inventories and shipments held in line during January, both up 0.2 percent and keeping inventories to shipments unchanged at a 1.31 ratio.
Held down by continued weakness in foreign demand, capital goods orders so far are not matching the burst of optimism underway in regional reports. Next data will be factory payrolls in Friday’s employment report followed the next week by the manufacturing component of the industrial production, both of which, like factory orders, have been soft.

The regional manufacturing and ISM diffusion indexes have shown increasing strength, but factory orders and factory output haven’t. The diffusion indexes seem suspect.


Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Factory Orders, Except Aircraft, Fizzle Once Again

Factory orders for March came in at 0.2%, below the Econoday consensus estimate of 0.4%. Taking into account a 0.2 percentage point upgrade in February, the consensus estimate is on the money.

Factory Orders Rise In Line With Consensus

Factory orders are up 1.0% matching the Econoday consensus estimate.

Factory Orders Rise As Expected, Fueled By Aircraft Orders

Factory orders rose 3.0% in June a bit more than the Econoday consensus estimate of 2.7%. Excluding transportation, orders fell.

Factory Orders Up 1.2%, Led by Transportation, Well Under Consensus

Factory orders rose 1.2% in February vs a consensus estimate of 1.7%. Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.1%.

Aircraft Orders: The Only Durable Goods Item Humming

Durable goods orders for March rose 0.7% vs an Econoday consensus of 1.1%. Revisions lifted February gains from1.7% to 2.3%. Once again the good news stops there.

Factory Orders a 2nd Quarter Disappointment: “High-Flying” Regional Nonsense

Hard data for the second quarter continues to suffer despite diffusion indexes that have generally performed better. Put more credence on the hard data.

Durable Goods Orders Disappoint, Up on Aircraft Orders

Durable goods orders rose 1.3% in November. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders fell 0.1%.

Durable Goods Orders Surge on Aircraft: Core Capital Goods and Autos Decline: Overall Weak Report

The headline durable goods orders for February beat the Econoday consensus and January was revised higher as well.

Factory Orders Inch Higher Only Because of Aircraft, Shipments Down 4th Month

Factory orders rose 0.1% but shipments which feed GDP reports were down for the fourth consecutive month.