Bloomberg Econoday discusses the Factory Orders report.

New factory orders for November fell 0.6 percent which is just below Econoday's consensus range and reflects the month's abrupt $20 drop in oil from $70 to $50. Largely reflecting related price effects, orders for non-durables, the new set of data in today's report, fell 1.9 percent to more than offset a solid aircraft boosted rise of 0.7 percent in durable goods orders (revised from 0.8 percent in advance data for this report released in late December before the government shutdown and closing of the Census Bureau).

New orders for core capital goods (nondefense ex-aircraft) fell an unrevised 0.6 percent after a 0.5 percent rise in October with November shipments revised 1 tenth lower to a 0.2 percent decline following, however, a 0.8 percent October increase. These are mixed indications for business investment in the fourth-quarter.

Total shipments, like orders, fell 0.6 percent in November and were down 0.1 percent in October with November unfilled orders edging 0.1 percent lower following a 0.2 percent dip. A specific negative for fourth-quarter GDP will be a 0.1 percent decline in inventories which, given the even sharper drop in new orders, lifted the inventory-to-shipments rate 1 tenth to a less lean 1.35.


Today's report closes the book on what was a November with perhaps more weaknesses than strengths, and though previously released manufacturing data from the Federal Reserve are pointing to a big rebound for December, the verdict won't be final until this report for December is released. Date for the December release, which like today's report for November was delayed by the government shutdown, has yet to be released.

Perhaps more weakness? How about definitely?

That aside, Fed reports do indicate a solid December, even if the report seemed questionable.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Factory Orders Rise In Line With Consensus

Factory orders are up 1.0% matching the Econoday consensus estimate.

Factory Orders Rise 0.7% but Less Than Consensus, Transportation Leads

Factory orders rose 0.7% in June. Nondefense Aircraft rose 3.2%, Defense aircraft 20.2%, and motor vehicles 0.9%.

Factory Orders Up 1.2%, Led by Transportation, Well Under Consensus

Factory orders rose 1.2% in February vs a consensus estimate of 1.7%. Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.1%.

Factory Order Details Disappoint Again

Factory orders beat the Econoday Consensus estimate of 1.1% by 0.1 percentage points but the good news stops there.

Manufacturers' New Orders Significantly Miss Estimates Second Month

Factory orders rose 0.1% in December following two months of decline. Economists expected a 0.6% rise.

Factory Orders Inch Higher Only Because of Aircraft, Shipments Down 4th Month

Factory orders rose 0.1% but shipments which feed GDP reports were down for the fourth consecutive month.

GDPNow Estimate Unchanged Following Trade and Factory Orders Reports

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model remains unchanged, at 1.2%, following today’s international trade and factory orders reports.

Factory Orders, Except Aircraft, Fizzle Once Again

Factory orders for March came in at 0.2%, below the Econoday consensus estimate of 0.4%. Taking into account a 0.2 percentage point upgrade in February, the consensus estimate is on the money.

September Retail Sales Fizzle: 0.1% Gain vs. 0.6% Expected

Economists missed the mark badly on retail sales. They expected a 0.6% rise, not the feeble 0.1% reported.