by Mish

Factory orders surged 3.0 percent in June but were skewed higher by a more than doubling in monthly aircraft orders. Excluding transportation equipment, a reading that excludes aircraft, orders actually fell 0.2 percent in the month following a 0.1 decline in May and no change in April. June orders for capital goods (nondefense ex-aircraft) were also weak, unchanged in the month.

Shipments fell 0.2 percent while inventories rose 0.2 percent, lifting the inventory-to-shipment ratio to a less lean 1.38. A major positive in today’s report is a 1.3 percent surge in unfilled orders which had been flat but are now getting a lift from transportation equipment as well as capital goods industries including machinery and fabrications.

Turning to nondurable goods, orders slipped 0.3 percent on declines for petroleum and coal. Aircraft are an important part of the factory sector and have been a big plus so far this year, yet outside aircraft, the sector is still struggling to get in the air this year.


The consumer is weak for the second month. This report is for June. Thus, it will feed into GDP revisions for the second quarter.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Factory Orders, Except Aircraft, Fizzle Once Again

Factory orders for March came in at 0.2%, below the Econoday consensus estimate of 0.4%. Taking into account a 0.2 percentage point upgrade in February, the consensus estimate is on the money.

Factory Orders Rise In Line With Consensus

Factory orders are up 1.0% matching the Econoday consensus estimate.

Factory Order Details Disappoint Again

Factory orders beat the Econoday Consensus estimate of 1.1% by 0.1 percentage points but the good news stops there.

Factory Orders Up 1.2%, Led by Transportation, Well Under Consensus

Factory orders rose 1.2% in February vs a consensus estimate of 1.7%. Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.1%.

Factory Orders Rise 0.7% but Less Than Consensus, Transportation Leads

Factory orders rose 0.7% in June. Nondefense Aircraft rose 3.2%, Defense aircraft 20.2%, and motor vehicles 0.9%.

Durable Goods Orders Disappoint, Up on Aircraft Orders

Durable goods orders rose 1.3% in November. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders fell 0.1%.

Aircraft Orders: The Only Durable Goods Item Humming

Durable goods orders for March rose 0.7% vs an Econoday consensus of 1.1%. Revisions lifted February gains from1.7% to 2.3%. Once again the good news stops there.

Durable Goods Orders Decline 6.8% Led by Aircraft

Huge surges and declines in aircraft orders have made for extremely volatile durable goods orders lately.

Durable Goods Order Jump 4.5%, Almost Entirely on Aircraft

Durable goods orders jumped 4.5% in August. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders increased 0.1%.