Brexit Party Ponders Contesting Few Seats
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1189607870729478145
The Financial Times reports Brexit Party Considers Pulling Out of Hundreds of Seats to Boost Tories
Gee, Who Coulda Thunk?
Uh, Me.
Parade of Cynics
One reader commented today “It is easy to be enthusiastic if one allows the goalposts to move. Self-deception. October 31 will be gone without Brexit and this is the 3rd Tory PM who promises to ‘Get Brexit Done’ in four years.”
Good grief.
It was a tremendous victory for Johnson to be able to campaign on a platform of “Get Brexit Done” rather than having delivered the Withdrawal Agreement on October 31.
Moreover, as I stated many times ” One must factor in political reality: No Deal was not a straight-up option for Johnson.”
Question of Trust
Let’s review pertinent comments from my October 26 post Brexit Question of Trust: Who Can Trust Johnson, Macron?
Appearances vs Reality
Do not rule out the possibility that Farage gets this too, and has really worked out a deal with Johnson once an election is triggered.
For political purposes, and to make an election more likely, Farage and Johnson must appear as if they are on different sides.
Moreover, even if they are not working together now, if election odds change, Johnson will change too.
Hmm. Fancy that. Appearances were different that reality. Gee, who coulda thunk?
Uh, Me.
No Deal Still in Play
The Financial Times did not go far enough in its analysis. Yes, this aids Johnson, but it also aids the Brexit Party.
As I have commented numerous times, an election with the theme of “Get Brexit Done” increases the chances of No Deal compared to passage of the Withdrawal Agreement (WA).
January Brexit Extension Increases Chance of No Deal
On October 23, in January Brexit Extension Increases Chance of No Deal my headline image reads “Stop No Deal Advocates Seriously Playing With Fire“
Huge Labour Miscalculation
It would have been to the advantage of Labour to have the WA pass so Labour could campaign against it.
Instead, Labour made a huge miscalculation, one that I have commented on several times.
Euirointelligence came to the same conclusion much later.
Eurointelligence Take
Johnson pulled his withdrawal bill as he had threatened before. This means that the next election, whenever it happens, will be about Brexit. December is a terrible election time for Labour in any case. But a Brexit election is not good for Labour either because of the party’s uncertain position. We think Labour committed a serious strategic error by supporting the Boles amendment to postpone the passage of the withdrawal bill. What they didn’t see coming was the LibDem’s U-turn on elections.
U-Turn Easy to Spot
The Lib-Dem U-turn was easy to predict. Or at least it should have been.
I commented numerous times:
- The Lib-Dem “Remain” platform blows sky high the moment the WA passed.
- The Lib-Dems second agenda is to take seats from Labour
- Jo Swinson, the Lib-Dem leader cannot stand Corbyn.
U-Turn Trigger
What triggered the U-Turn?
This one is easy to see unless you have on blinders.
French President Emmanuel Macron stood up to the EU by demanding a way forward (elections or WA), instead of a flat out extension.
The last thing Swinson wanted was the WA to pass. She was forced to accept election and she was even willing to have the election at a time disadvantageous to Labour.
Amazingly, mainstream media, and even some of my readers look at Macron’s extension as a Johnson defeat.
Rather, it was Johnson who phoned Macron to OK the extension once Swinson did the election U-Turn.
Second Miscalculation
Labour’s second miscalculation was assuming Farage would contest every seat. I assumed all along the Brexit Party would cooperate.
Farage gains nothing by delivering a Corbyn win.
However, if the Brexit Party picks up a handful of seats, and if Johnson needs those votes and the votes of DUP then No Deal could be the result.
My base case is still a deal.
However, the deal is likely to be better with Farage on board than with Farage on the sidelines.
Tactical Voting
Curiously, the Guardian commented today Tactical Voting Could Deliver Remain Victory in Election
Ironically, with elections in December with students on break, the tactical voting is more likely to swing to Brexit-Party tactics than Liberal Democrat-Labour tactics.
Credibility
Eurointelligence made this pertinent comment: “Johnson is the only politician who can credibly claim to get Brexit done. Remainers do not have that same clarity with Corbyn.”
Flashback Headlines
August 3, The Telegraph: Why a Tory-Brexit Party Alliance is Never Going to Happen.
September 11, BBC: Nigel Farage Election Pact Proposal Rejected by No 10
I love that first one: “Never Going to Happen”.
Not Done Yet
Farage has not officially announced his strategy yet.
But to increase the odds of No Deal and to have a say in the trade negotiations if not, it makes sense for the Brexit Party to cooperate.
I expect Johnson to win anyway, but Labour could go down in a crushing defeat if Farage cooperates, as I suggested he would, long ago.
Finally, and again as I have commented, the whole political feud between Johnson and Farage may have been orchestrated from the beginning.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
No DP, Johnson’s deal won’t be the end of Farage, far from it. It’s not a deal, it’s just an agreement to cough up money now and talk again about how far we have to bend over the table for a trade deal.
A no deal is still possible down the line.
Remember that the recently nominated EU trade commissioner (who will no doubt lead or oversee negotiations) is Irish. What a coincidence eh? It’s in Johnson’s interest to have a useful number of Brexit MPs on the other benches to wave at the Eurocrats. Exactly the opposite of the Benn/Burt brigade who were a negotiating constraint, a couple of dozen slavering Faragistes will loosen the bowels a bit, especially so for the Irish.
If they steal Labour seats they won’t be collaborating to stop the clock running down at the end of December if the Johnson deal hasn’t gone through. The LibDems might even have to vote for it to stop no deal. Oh, the irony of that.
.
Yes, it was an overstatement. Still, he would lose much of his support in an instant. The trade agreement is a much weaker topic than membership. Not to mention that the fate of the union will be more interesting than anything else. Last time when he was weakened, he retired.
Thanks for the quote! 🙂
In my view, in order to deliver Brexit, the Tories have to get a majority alone. In that case, Johnson’s deal might be ratified. If anyone else is needed to do it, then Brexit will likely collapse into another extension request. The Tory centre right won’t allow “no deal” as a policy.
This means exactly one thing: there is no motivation for the Tories to cooperate with Farage at all. And this is the reason why he is so open to election pacts. He will be the one who is rejected again and again. He can even make large one-sided concessions because a few dozen candidates can be enough to destroy the Tory majority if the Brexit Party polls move up a few percents.
“Farage gains nothing by delivering a Corbyn win.”
It depends on who is blamed for it. If he can escape the blame (as he will try), then he gains several more years for his political career with ever larger influence. The implementation of Johnson’s deal would likely eliminate him completely. What would you choose? Appearances are really different from reality.
Oh the irony, every Brit owes a debt of gratitude to two of the men who were instrumental in getting their country out of the EU; French president Emmanuel Macron and Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar.
Nigel Farage coming up on Fox Business next hour.
Farage has worked 3 decades for a clean cut Brexit or an ‘EU deal’ that is equivalent to a clean cut Brexit. Nothing else matters to Farage. His party even advertises it clearly on the tin – Brexit Party.
BJ wants to be a duly elected PM at all cost. Nothing else matters to BJ. He’d sell his own brother (oops already did) and his father if it meant he was PM.
Where they currently differ on Brexit is BJ is fine calling his BRINO treaty ‘Brexit’. BJ would call the same treaty ‘Remain’ if it would get him elected. Farage simply won’t agree to the BRINO treaty BJ negotiated with the EU.
FT probably jumped the gun. Of course there will be negotiations and talks of negotiations between the Tories and the Brexit Party. It makes sense for both to do so, because they would easily sweep any impossible alliance of all the other parties combined.
If there is a real announcement the Tories made a deal with the Brexit Party, we all know BJ crossed the line and agreed to a clean cut Brexit or the negotiated equivalent of a clean cut Brexit. It will not mean Farage crossed the aisle and agreed to BJ’s current BRINO treaty. NO WAY. One of the two is unwaivering on Brexit.
Nigel just broadcast exclusive 30 min interview with PDJT who urges them to get together and assure Brexit can happen, also that BJ’s current ‘deal’ means no trade deal with US practically speaking.
Farage has also said many times that this deal is not something that delivers any sort of real Brexit, from his pov, but if Boris would just back a straight No Deal exit, then he would get 100% behind him.
But Boris isn’t going to do that, it looks like and prefers risking another hung parliament in order to dangle his ‘New Great Deal’ as a persuasion item than offering the seeming uncertainty afterwards of a clean break Brexit on Dec 31st.
The fact is, that either way, they won’t be able to do trade deals with the US immediately because there is an agreement to keep everything the same for a while after exiting until new protocols are in place, so it’s all a bit of a red herring.
But with politics, of course, most of it boils down to whose red herring slap leaves a distinctive mark on the opponents image. If in doubt, just slap another one at ’em!
Perhaps this is the final test of the credibility of democracy in the U.K. God knows, there’s hardly any of it left. December 12th. is only 6 weeks from now, best of luck!
I have two questions. Question 1 – Do I trust Boris on Brexit?
Answer – No I dont. I dont like his deal and I dont like the way he spurned the chance to get the UK out of the EU. He said lets get it done, and so far all he has done was for himself and not for the British people. This isnt leadership.
Question 2 – Do we have a choice but to trust Boris?
The sad reality is perhaps not. Unless we vote for him we will probably never get any form of Brexit.
I remember when UKIP surged in the polls. People used to say that voting for UKIP was a wasted vote. Only it wasnt, as more and more people voted UKIP despite the fact that they werent going to win, it attracted more people until they got to the point where it forced the referendum. I think that we are going to have to do the same again with the Brexit party. We might not have many votes this time around, but you can be pretty sure that the Tories will stitch us up again. They have done it 3 times now, and I have no doubt that they will go back to the well again after December 12th.
Hmmm…you are correct, Johnson could have got his truly awful WA through, so why didn’t he?
Maybe the plan is a Clean Brexit after all.
Johnson will win the GE easily, and depending on how well the TBP does will have enough Clean Brexiteers to go back to the EU and tell them to Foxtrot Oscar unless we get a better deal, or leave on WTO.
Just sayin’, No Deal is still on the table…
“Johnson could have got his truly awful WA through, so why didn’t he?”
That is a good question and I dont like the answers. You are saying that the reason why he didnt was to get a Hard Brexit through instead. But as I have pointed out, he could have gotten a Hard Brexit done as well, but he didnt.
I guess we can all use Occam’s razor and put our own subjectivity onto the answer as to which is the simplest reason. My answer is that Boris is trying to confound Brexit. At the very worst, the EU gets the Bad Boris deal out of this. Hard Brexit appears to me, off of the table. I just dont see how if Boris gets a thumping majority how he would suddenly let his Bad Boris deal die in a ditch and go for the proper Brexit which is Hard Brexit.
Then if a Bad Boris deal is the worst that can happen to the EU, then what is the best? A collapse in the Labour vote to let the Lib Dems in, that cannot be ruled out. Some Tory scandal that causes Boris’s vote to collapse, more than possible. Events happen and change politics.
Or Labour could surge like they did last time and get into power themselves, dont rule it out.
The only thing that appears to me off the table now is Hard Brexit. And we have Boris to thank for that.
Every single politician has blood on their hands, every single one of them has participated in this charade of 3,5 years. Perhaps you should look at who was the least guilty of deliberate attempts to kill Brexit and I think Johnson really deserves the benefit of the doubt. It’s just 6 weeks, perhaps he comes up with a decent campaign and a solid alliance with TBP. Because, what’s the alternative….Labour?
Agree, better to vote for the Brexit party than Tories
Yes, Boris will not allow Hard Brexit to happen, it is clear now.
Johson has been a disappointment to reveal himself in the same category as non-leader May. Basically, he has no idealogical foundation for his actions similar to May. He is neither remainer not brexiter but rather someone influenced by external interests. It is not really surprising provided that he voted for May’s deal third time.
UK is really suffering without proper leadership who would stand for its sovereignty.
It’s very simple. Boris is a politician first and a Brexiteer whenever he thinks it’s worth it. Right now delivering Brexit in any form will be viewed somewhat romantically.
He’s never been an extremist and he’s always been a Tory. He’s a global pluralist at heart.
There will be no pact officially – the electorate would smell a rat and it would damage Johnson’s credibility. But don’t be surprised if the Tory candidate in Brexit voting seats with a sitting Labour remainer or agnostic MP doesn’t set foot out of the door to campaign.
Reports (Wednesday evening) are that there are disputes within TBP (whether to adopt a targeted 20-40 seat approach or go full bore).
Seems to me that they need to work out some sort of baseline mutual respect after which both sides can present a clear approach. In other words, apart from tactical voting logistics, also Farage has to be acknowledged by the Tories with more than dismissive insults. This is not to massage F’s ego, but to give a clear and uplifted message and ‘buy-in’ for Leave voters, most of whom favor a clean exit, but few of whom understand all the procedural and political steps involved either way (Deal / No Deal).
If Farage has still to earn Tory respect, then he should offer up as many candidates as he can, wait until there is more data (like end of November maybe) and be in a far stronger position, which will also make it easier for Boris to deal with him given no doubt so many Tories will be loath to touch Nigel in any way, shape or form.
Hey, it’s politics….
(and it ain’t past Thursday 11pm either!)
Wow! I agree with Mish the risk of a hard Brexit is going up. If Farage cooperates with Boris and drops seats to some hard Brexit Tories the Tories could crash the UK out and get rid of Boris if the voter’s anger about crashing out was high. I see it as very highly likely Farage will cooperate, I’m sure the delay is he’s getting his ducks(MP’s) in a row first/negotiating. Fascinating watching “democracy” in action!
Risk or chance?
I listened to Farage’s show this evening,No mention of a deal. He said he was keeping quiet for the moment.
I hope this article is correct. My info is that Brexit Party have decided not to make a final decision until Farage returns from Washington later this week.
To anyone who sees Greyed-Out comments or believe that have had one deleted.
1: Please capture a screen shot of the Greyed-Out comment.
2: What OS and browser are you using?
Any defeat for conservatives would be crushing.
Polls suggest without any alliances at all Tories win easily.
Any defeat for conservatives would be crushing – exactly. But the polls worry me; people generally don’t think about things as deeply or as strategically as the collective thought on this site. And many are VERY angry. A lot will be waiting to see what Farage says. He is the only one who SEEMS to have held true to his course and the only one speaking for the more hawkish.
You’re right to put “SEEMS” in caps because he didn’t “hold true” at all: on Oct-17 he was advocating for an extension, claiming that an extension was better than Boris’s deal.
Labour could go down in a crushing defeat if Farage cooperates … AND … Conservatives could go down in a crushing defeat if Farage doesn’t cooperate.