Inquiring minds may wish to read the December 19 FOMC Statement.

It contains nothing but the usual drivel about jobs and maintaining its "dual mandate".

Fed Statement Tracker

The Wall Street Journal Fed Statement Tracker shows the Fed did add some language about vigilance as I expected.

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There you have it. The Fed "will continue to monitor global economic and financial developments and assess their implications for the economic outlook."

How comforting!


Dot Plot September 27, 2018

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​In December, 6 participants thought that hikes topped at 3.0-3.25%.

In September, 4 participants thought the Fed would stop at 3.25-3.50% and another thought the Fed would get to 3.50-3.75%.

Expectations have come down. They are still preposterously high.

Recession Baked in the Cake

It's Too Late to Matter Now what the Fed says it will do, or even what the Fed actually does do.

A recession is now baked in the cake.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Fed Hikes 1/4 Point as Expected: Dot Plot Indicates One More 2018 Hike Coming

In its FOMC statement, the Fed says the economy continues to strengthen, unemployment is low, and spending is strong.

Fed Pledges "Patience", Dot Plot Suggests No Hikes in 2019

Today the Fed pledged patience and a majority of officials signaled they might not raise the rate at all this year.

Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged as Expected, Dot Plot of Future Policy Splits

The dot plot of future expectations has split into two camps: Those who expect the status quo and those who see cuts.

Market Gives Finger Formation to Fed's Dot Plot Take

The Median Fed projection at the Dec FOMC meeting was 2 more hikes in 2019. In September it was 3. Hikes now priced out.

Dot Plot Fantasyland Flashback vs Current Rate Cut Expectations

In December, Powell said the Fed was on "autopilot". Let's compare those dot plots with current Fed Fund Futures.

Dot Plot Shows 3 Hikes in 2018: Fade the Consensus

The Fed hiked 1/4 point with no unexpected discussion. A Dot plot shows Fed participants believe 3 more hikes are coming

Mortgage Rates Move Higher on Fed Dot Plot Projections

How many hikes can the Fed get in this year? The Fed estimate is two more. Mortgage rates rose on the news.

Dot Plot Fantasyland Projections

The Economic projections made at today's FOMC meeting are straight from Fantasyland

Fed Cuts Rates 1/4 Percent, Three Dissents: Dot Plot Suggests No More 2019 Cuts

The Fed cut interest rates 25 basis point to a target of 1.75% to 2.00%. There were three dissents.