by Mish

The only surprising thing in their boilerplate statementwas a lack of the word “transitory”.

Derivations of “moderate” constitute the new buzz-word.

Spotlight on Moderate and Balanced

  • Economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year.
  • Job gains have moderated but have been solid, on average.
  • Economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further.
  • Near term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.

The Fed failed to mention weakness is transitory. There was no mention of retail sales, construction, housing or any of the other string of 18 poor hard data economic points in the second quarter.


Has the economy already transitioned from a first-quarter transitory weakness setup to a moderate, risk-balanced second-quarter setup?

Dot Plot

The Dot Plot is from Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the June 13-14 FOMC meeting.

The dot plot is the interest rate expectation of Fed participants. Only one sees weakness as not being transitory.

For an 18-point synopsis of second-quarter weak data points, please see Yellen Still Clueless?

Mike “Mish” Shedlock.

Fed Hikes 1/4 Point as Expected: Dot Plot Indicates One More 2018 Hike Coming

In its FOMC statement, the Fed says the economy continues to strengthen, unemployment is low, and spending is strong.

Fed Hikes as Expected, Dot Plot of Expected Hikes Changes Significantly

The Fed did little this month but babble the same story about strong jobs and its dual mandate. Expectations did change.

Fed Hikes With One Dissent: Fed Behind the Curve?

As expected, the Fed hiked interest rates 25 basis points to a range of 3/4 to 1 percent.

Dot Plot Shows 3 Hikes in 2018: Fade the Consensus

The Fed hiked 1/4 point with no unexpected discussion. A Dot plot shows Fed participants believe 3 more hikes are coming

Fed Pledges "Patience", Dot Plot Suggests No Hikes in 2019

Today the Fed pledged patience and a majority of officials signaled they might not raise the rate at all this year.

Mortgage Rates Move Higher on Fed Dot Plot Projections

How many hikes can the Fed get in this year? The Fed estimate is two more. Mortgage rates rose on the news.

Dot Plot Fantasyland Projections

The Economic projections made at today's FOMC meeting are straight from Fantasyland

Market Gives Finger Formation to Fed's Dot Plot Take

The Median Fed projection at the Dec FOMC meeting was 2 more hikes in 2019. In September it was 3. Hikes now priced out.

FOMC Holds Rates, Mush “Transitory” Statement Follows: Interesting Bond Reaction

As universally expected, the Fed did not hike rates at the May meeting. Instead, the FOMC committee issued a boilerplate Press Release that the first quarter slowdown is transitory and that inflation expectations are balanced.