Fed vs Market Synopsis

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Key Differences

  • 1 Hike: Fed 29.40% vs Market 0.00%
  • 2 Cuts: Fed 0.00% vs Market 11.9%
  • Neutral+Hike: Fed 58.8% vs Market 40.5%

Question of the Day

I believe the market is far closer.

For a discussion of today's FOMC meeting, please see Fed Cuts Rates 1/4 Percent, Three Dissents: Dot Plot Suggests No More 2019 Cuts

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

2019 Rate "Cuts" in Play

The market still expects the Fed to hike on Wednesday, but even the 3-Month yield is lower. Let's look ahead to 2019.

Fed Cuts Interest Rate 3rd Time in 2019 With Hints of a Pause

The FOMC committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent.

Huge Interest Rate Dislocations: Did the Fed Cut Too Much?

A series of charts shows new fed-sponsored interest rate dislocations. Let's dive into the charts.

Fed Cuts Rates 1/4 Percent, Three Dissents: Dot Plot Suggests No More 2019 Cuts

The Fed cut interest rates 25 basis point to a target of 1.75% to 2.00%. There were three dissents.

Real Interest Rates "Historically" High or Low? Bond Market Legs?

Jim Rickards says real interest rates are high on a historic basis. That statement caught my attention.

Rate Cuts More Likely Than Hikes in 2019

The market has now totally priced out rate hikes for the December 11, 2019 FOMC meeting.

How Does Gold React to Interest Rate Policy?

From 1970 to present let's investigate how gold reacted to various interest rate environments.

Fed Minutes Suggest Gradual Rate Hikes Coming: Little Market Reaction

As expected, the Fed signaled gradual rate hikes are coming.

Market Expects Emergency Rate Cut by the Fed on Monday Morning

Jim Bianco at Bianco Research makes a case for an emergency rate cut and a recession.