Compared to early projections, more believable GDP forecasts are now in the works, at least for GDPNow. I suspect GDPNow is still a bit high, and Nowcast more than a bit low.

I will take a stab at 3.2%. But that's not the number that really matters.

Real final sales is the true measure of GDP. Inventory builds net to zero contribution over time. That's what to watch tomorrow.

GDPNow has real final sales at 1.5%. That's less than half of its early peak. Nowcast does not separate out real final sales.

Throughout the quarter, the most static thing has been GDPNow's inventory build estimate. It's now 2.1 percentage points.

If we do have 2 points of inventory growth, there will be payback in the 4th quarter of 2018 or the 1st quarter of next year.

Why the Inventory Build?

  1. We had a huge inventory build in anticipation of retail sales that may not happen.
  2. Companies likely stockpiled as much stuff as they could ahead of Trump tariffs.

Both reasons are in play.

On Friday, we find out just how big this inventory build has been.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Final Model Forecasts for First Quarter GDP: GDPNow 2.0%, Nowcast 2.9%

The advance (first) estimate of first-quarter GDP is published tomorrow. The GDPNow final estimate is 2.0%, Nowcast 2.9%

GDP Estimates: Mish, ZeroHedge, GDPNow, Econoday, Nowcast, Markit

Inventory numbers today suggest a far bigger inventory contribution to GDP than I expected even last week. However, given poor retail sales, the inventory build will most likely result in a third quarter payback.

GDPnow, Nowcast Boost Fourth-Quarter GDP Estimates

GDPNow upped its 4th-quarter GDP estimate to 3.3% from 2.9% a week ago. Nowcast upped its forecast to 4.0% from 3.9%.

Dueling GDP Estimates: GDPNow vs. FRBNY Nowcast

Both the Atlanta Fed GDPNow and the New York Fed Nowcast updated their models today. Let’s take a look at where they stand for second-quarter GDP.

Fourth-Quarter GDP Final Estimate Hits 2.9%,Tops Consensus

The third estimate of fourth-quarter GDP is 2.9%, up 0.4 percentage points from the second estimate.

GDPNow Initial Estimate of 1st-Quarter GDP: 0.3 Percent

The GDPNow initial forecast for 1st-quarter 2019 GDP is a minuscule 0.3%.

Investigating Curious Anomalies in GDPNow and Nowcast GDP Estimates

As of last Friday, the Atlanta Fed GDFPNow model for the second-quarter GDP stood at 3.4%. In contrast, the FRBNY Nowcast report was 2.2%.

Six GDP Estimates: ZeroHedge, Mish, GDPNow, Nowcast, ISM, Markit

On Wednesday, I asked a handful of bloggers and economic writers their estimate for first quarter GDP.

Nowcast 3rd Quarter GDP Estimate 2%, GDPNow 3.7%

We have two revisions coming for second-quarter GDP estimates even as time rolls on. The third-quarter is already a month over. GDPNow has its first estimate, a whopping 3.7%. The GDPNow estimate is 1.7 percentage points higher than Nowcast.