The BEA reports GDP tomorrow. Here’s the final Atlanta Fed forecast. 
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Nowcast essentially became an unofficial forecast today.
The final GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.8 percent on October 29, down from 3.3 percent on October 25. After this morning’s Advance Economic Indicators release from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth fell from 0.04 percentage points to -0.38 percentage points.
Pat Higgins at the Atlanta Fed has had a hot hand for many quarters. His track record has been better than the Blue Chip forecasts for this time.
The model suggests 2.8 percent GDP with 2.9 percent real final sales. The latter is the more important number. The difference is inventory adjustment that nets to zero over time.
I have not seen such a tight range for an entire quarter like we have seen now.
The maximum top-to-bottom GDP range was 2.0 to 3.5 percent. The maximum top-to-bottom GDP range was 2.1 to 3.3 percent. That’s tight.
The half-point drop today was on trade data.
Three New Trade Deficit Charts Will Have Trump Howling
This morning, I commented Three New Trade Deficit Charts Will Have Trump Howling
The advance trade data on goods imports and exports took a huge turn for the worse in September.
Tracking the Economic Impact of the Trump-Biden Tariffs
The Tax Foundation Tariff Tracker investigates the Economic Impact of Trump-Biden Tariffs.
Please read the sobering report.
Trump Will Raise Taxes and Increase the Price of Goods
Yesterday, I commented Trump Will Raise Taxes and Increase the Price of Goods
Since tariffs are a tax on consumers, Trump is threatening the largest tax hike in US history.
Please check it out.
Does 2.8% “real” GDP have any real meaning when a large portion of it comprises government spending fueled by deficits that are roughly 7% of GDP ? That would suggest real or unlevered GDP is actually negative.
Darn it still waiting on that recession!
Nowhere near recessionary, nor is the trend.
Business bankruptcy up
Business closures up
Office vacancies up
Unemployment up
Vehicle repos up
M2 up
Underreport inflation and like magic
GDP up…another BS data dump
Amazing isn’t it? Borrow and spend like you’re fighting the Germans + Japanese again and your GDP will always be positive.
I really want to know how Trump will do anything approaching fiscal responsibility/austerity without tanking the economy. He’s being handed a colossal turd (partially of his own doing) if we’re honest.
In a few days time, you’ll be here telling us about how the election was stolen from him. It’ll be all you think about, for months. Your obsession will drive away whatever family you had left.
Turn back!
“I really want to know how Trump will do anything approaching fiscal responsibility..”
Don’t bother wondering. He won’t.
“…do anything approaching fiscal responsibility/austerity without tanking the economy.”
What tanks an economy, is specifically the _absence_ of fiscal responsibility.
Being responsible, instead of irresponsible, CAN NEVER tank an economy. You can rest assured that any purported “measure” which suggests responsible is somehow worse than irresponsible, only does so because that “measure” is 100% pure bunk and nonsense. It will ALWAYS be the measure which is nonsensical. Never responsibility.
Allowing for inflation, I doubt it is positive.
I looked up Q1 2024 data. GDP was up a whopping 4.3% but I wanted the actual dollar amount, and it was about $300 billion in growth.
Then I looked at the amount of federal debt added that quarter, and it was $531 billion, so this whole thing about GDP growth is fake, and that is just government debt. The government is like racking up huge debt, spending like drunken sailors, and then saying how great everything is.
Maybe we can convince all the senior citizens to quit cashing their Social Security checks or ask military personnel to man a wall or ship rail for free for awhile?
I’ll vote that way if you will.
GDP of the US is around $30 trillion, so 4.3% of that would be around $1.3 trillion, not $300 billion. Check your math.
I did not do any calculations. I looked things up. That said, I think you are looking at things from an annual versus quarterly POV.
From ‘The Economic Fractalist’ : “Since 1982 the US GDP has expanded from 3.3 trillion to 29 trillion, a 9 fold increase, while US debt has expanded from 1.1 trillion to 35 trillion, a 32 fold increase. Excess dollars created by governmental fiscal policy and facilitated by central bank monetary policy have flowed preferentially into equities aided with 20 years of corporate-lobbied legislative buy-back laws while US middle class manufacturing jobs have been expatriated in support of corporate financial goals over national security goals.
US % GDP-deficit spending in 2020 was 14.66, the highest since WW2 with persistent 11.7, 5.3, 6.1, and 6.7 % deficit spending in subsequent years yielding a 4 year average of 2-3% annual GDP growth, touted to be the envy of G7 countries.”
Mish, just wondering. Why does GDPNow run a month into the next quarter?
I realize there’s overlap considerations, but a whole month?
The reporting coming out in October is for the prior months, which were in Q3 even though October itself is not.
If you think a month of lag is bad, consider that the employment and GDP data for Q3 will be revised for a whole year yet to come, as more data get tallied up.
And then sometimes revised further even after a year, as methodologies and seasonal factors and other adjustments get made!
The Federal budget deficit is greater than 2.8% of GDP, so without that deficit spending GDP “growth” would likely be negative.
I get your point, but believe that you might change your mind on further consideration. Yes, if the deficit spending were not in the economic numbers, and everything else stayed the same, then of course the GDP numbers “would be lower”.
BUT… without that deficit spending, everything else would also be different. GDP growth could actually be higher, like it was in prior periods with low deficits. This is because the economy is already at full employment, and yet most government spending is on relatively unproductive activity. At full employment, deficit spending diverts and squanders resources that would otherwise be used more productively, driving inflation rather than growth. At full employment, even without the government spending those resources would still be used, and used more productively. At full employment, reducing government spending should actually generate more prosperity, since productive spending has a higher “multiplier effect” than government spending. So without deficits wasting resources, growth could actually be higher.
The time when deficit spending might be helpful is when the economy is far from full employment, such that giving the unemployed “something useful to do” is better than nothing. But right now, at full employment, whatever the government is getting people to do is probably worse for future economic growth than what they’d be doing without the government intervention!
Since Aug higher highs/higher lows.
Hey Mish, you are all into election coverage and covering Trump’s every changing economic plans….trying to find some coherent plan. But why not report an important news on job openings dipping… Just in case you want to cover something that matters. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/job-openings-fall-to-lowest-level-since-january-2021-141507569.html
Quits at 8 year lows I believe. Not good.
Tariffs and inflation are transitory. Feds own words.
https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1851354451820552218
I AGREE TRUMP WILL RAISE TAXES, BUT KAMALA WILL RAISE THEM A LOT MORE, AND IN WORSE WAYS! MORE PEOPLE STARVING!
I WON DER HOW MUCH GDP WILL BE REVISED DOWNWARDS, HALF?
Short term tax for long term gain. If any of the pundits could see past two months we would all be in a better position.
GDPNow and Goldman are now synched up. Goldman’s economist has had a decent handle on it so far. You’d recognize him. He’s the one with the rose colored glasses.
Goldman should have been flushed down the toilet with AIG around this time 16 years ago. Hank “tanks in the streets” Paulson was the one threatening an insurrection by his Wall Street crook pals.