Mish, here’s a simple / hard question: What should the US do, if anything, if Russia uses chemical or tactical nukes in Ukraine?
worleyeoe
1 year ago
Nice job, Biden! Don’t let anyone tell you that tariffs are bad, including Mish.
Too bad Trump didn’t implement a 25% tariff on EVERYTHING imported from China. Now that would have gotten their attention.
And, I’ll admit this 15% min corp tax is growing on me. Just make sure there are no loopholes.
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
One of the advantages of changing rules like this is it reinforces a Global understanding of the reliability of America’s trade agreements.
On a positive note, the Americans are doing all they can to help China and Russia internally develop needed technologies and tools, and become Globally independent trading partners with everyone.
Casual_Observer2020
1 year ago
We can blame Biden for whatever but the following happen under the Trump admin and is not easy to fix:
– Trade war with China
– undoing of regulations in commodity futures
– mishandling of covid
– bailouts and checks for any “business”
The truth is we need to basically undo the last 23 years deregulation in futures markets and derivatives and go back to the 1990s level regulatory framework. There is a reason we keep going from boom to bust to boom with minimal investment in actual productivity growth businesses. It has everything to do with the deregulation framework that was put in place in 2000 for futures markets and derivatives of all kinds. Regulation here has been blocked by both parties for various reasons including “efficient capital formation” which is code word for speculation in instruments without taking delivery of them. Eventually we will get a real depression in order to realize that fundamentally things need change as they did after the 1920s boom and bust.
RonJ
1 year ago
“There is no reason to believe relations between the US and China will do anything but get worse because of Taiwan.”
Taiwan is a symptom. China is the rising empire and the U.S. is the declining empire. If not Taiwan, it would be something else that would be exploited to cause relations to get worse.
Six000mileyear
1 year ago
There was never any economic cooperation to be had. China used cheap labor and lax environmental laws as a trojan horse to obtain technology without developing it and then take over the US and west through monopolistic practices.
And US corporations bought into it hook line and sinker while the US Government band played on.
prumbly
1 year ago
Yet another counterproductive policy. All it will do is continue to force China to develop its own advanced chip-making ability. This is already happening, and SMIC is using a 7nm process today which is beyond US chip-making abilities. I doubt it will be long until China has developed faster chips than we have.
There is just a small difference between chip making equipment and foundry. SMIC, TSMC are foundries, Advanced Materials, ADSL, LAM are chip equipment makers.
China should be developing their own if they want to compete. 7nm is over a decade behind the most advanced process. IBM is producing chips with 2nm process.
Whatever the most advanced technology, it wouldn’t be applied to most demanding applications. Cars, aircraft require high reliability foremost. Don’t leave your cellphone out of your pocket in freezing weather.
JRM
1 year ago
Yep they will be issued a “LICENSE” within days requesting one!!!
But, but, but… Robert Habeck said he signed a natural gas deal with Qatar! Only problem is that Qatar says there was no such deal and the dog must have eaten Habeck’s copy.
When you say “rule based international order”, who is writing these rules that everyone must follow? Is it the entire world? Or just a few relatively small countries/regions, such as the US and their lapdogs in the EU?
Yep. Countries are not playing “nice” with each other. How about that. What a surprise.
Now that you have identified the problem, what is your solution?
Probably the same as mine. There is nothing I can do about it.
Well; I could whine and complain endlessly about my own government, like so many of the morons here. Like that’s going to change anything.
However, I can try to find the investment opportunities that these problems provide.
Lets see: neon gas, platinum, palladium, aluminum, steel, oil, gas, wheat, titanium, nickel, lithium, cobalt, manganese, electric grid, charging stations are all possible problems tonsolve.
Sounds like some of those things are related to the energy transition that is happening.
So oil, gas, hydrogen, renewables etc.
Maybe we can find some good investment opportunities in some of these areas?
I have mentioned many oil and gas stocks before. Now I will mention a few renewable and hydrogen plays that I have started acquiring: plug, bldp, evgn, lcfs.
Trade war is the opposite, and is a form of (economic) sabotage, and often the first step to more war.
“
+1.
Trade is also what results from people being free to make their own choices.
While trade war, is what results when a bunch of totalitarian negative-value-adders insert themselves into the private decisions of their in-all-ways-but-access-to-arms superiors.
Left alone, some Americans would trade with some Chinese. Others not so. Of course, left alone, noone would pay a lick of heed to what senile monkeys in Washington, nor illiterate theft recipients in New York, happened to think, wish, want nor dream of. So: The worthless monkeys resort to forcing them, ultimately at gunpoint, instead.
Or simply not try to be an a$$hole world policeman.
Esclaro
1 year ago
The USD is at a 20 year high. I am surprised that the US is able to export anything to anyone anywhere. Eventually the USD strength will cause a worldwide economic disaster. I don’t see anyone talking about this but later they will say it was a black swan.
Yup. I believe there will be a run to cash which further strengthens the dollar. It is underway now. Asset prices got too high and need to crash. There will be bagholders everywhere including in commodities. 2023 is going to feel more like 2008 or 2009 imo.
8dots
1 year ago
China Telcom 200 meter tower is burning. Flood in Italy killed at least 10 people.
I saw Chinese building construction firsthand when my old employer built a tower in China in 2006. When I visited, the tolerances were so far off that columns had to be rebuilt to support the building properly to prevent floors from crashing down. Chinese construction was of shoddy quality over thesst 20 years due to rampant growth.
So what? How is this at all relevant to Mish’s post?
Salmo Trutta
1 year ago
The U.S. dollar is in a self-reinforcing upward spiral. Export countries are selling Treasuries to defend their exchange rates, adding to supply, and the E-$ is contracting, removing demand. At the same time the FED is raising its administered rates. Not unlike Volcker’s time.
Is it time again for Central bank liquidity swaps?
Perhaps scuttling bilateral trade is laying the groundwork for military hostility? If trade is already suppressed, then a future drop due to a hot war would be a less significant shock to each side’s domestic economy.
Call_Me_Al
Call_Me
1 year ago
“Unless political relations between the United States and China
improve—something neither side, especially China, shows any interest in”
Come on, the ‘especially China’ is a childish taunt. The overarching sentiment is correct, but each side needs the other as a foil. While Twitter, the NBA, Disney, et cetera are making nice, can anyone name one word or action that U.S. political actors have done in the past year that has shown an interest in improving bilateral relations?
Call_Me_Al
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improve—something neither side, especially China, shows any interest in”