Spread Values

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Spread Values in Basis Points

  • 10-7 Spread: 04 Basis Points
  • 10-5 Spread: 10 Basis Points
  • 10-2 Spread: 21 Basis Points
  • 05-2 Spread: 11 Basis Points

This cannot possibly mean what is used to mean (i.e. the Fed is tightening into a recession).

How do I know?


In his speech today, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell did not mention "yield curve even once". Instead he talked about "moving stars".

For discussion, please see Powell Praises the Fed, Discusses the Stars (Literally), Defends Goldilocks.

Long Term Picture

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Note how the yield curve steepens mightily ahead of recessions as the Fed tries in vain to prevent one.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Why the Yield Curve Inverts in One Simple Picture

The yield curve inverts when the Fed keeps hiking in the face of a slowdown.

Relentless Yield Curve Flattening

Most economists expect the Fed will hike at least twice more this year. If so, portions of the yield curve may invert.

Yield Curve Steepening and Flattening: It Depends on Where One Looks

Some claim the yield curve is flattening, others say steepening. The steepening side has more merit starting January 2.

Yield Curve to Completely Flatten in 2018: But How?

The T. Rowe Price Group expects the yield curve to completely flatten in 2018. This is not a surprise as I have been commenting the same way for quite some time. The more important question is how? By yields converging up, down, or a mix?

Flattening of the Yield Curve in Pictures; Is an Inversion Necessary to Signal a Recession?

Curve watchers Anonymous has an eye on the yield curve. Here is a snapshot of year-end-closing values from 1998-12-31 through 2015-12-31.

What Spot in the Yield Curve is Likely to Invert First?

The yield curve has flattened considerably over the last year. Will it invert? Where? The following chart explains.

Debate over the Yield Curve: Is it Steepening or Flattening?

A recent Wall Street Journal story stated that “A flattening of the Treasury yield curve in 2017 is a worrying sign for investors banking on resurgent U.S. inflation and growth.”

Yield Curve Flattens Dramatically, Looking Quite Recessionary

Curve Watchers Anonymous has been watching the yield curve flatten for months on end.

Yield Curve Flattens Considerably: Surprising Economic Strength Revisited

Curve Watchers Anonymous is taking a hard look at the yield curve in light of the now odds-on market view of a March rate hike.