by Mish

Key Snips

The Committee views the slowing in growth during the first quarter as likely to be transitory and continues to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further, and inflation will stabilize around 2 percent over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data."

Bond Market Reaction

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  • The yield on the 2-year and 5-year treasury notes rose a relatively sharp four basis points.
  • The yield on the 10-year treasury rose 2 basis points.
  • The yield on the 30-year long bond fell 2 basis points.

This action, if it holds, is indicative of a bond market that sees the Fed hiking the US into recession.

Transitory Weakness

  1. April 5: Don’t Worry Weakness is Transitory: Fed Expects a Second Quarter Rebound, Higher Equity Prices
  2. May 2: Auto Sales Puke Again: Year-Over-Year Totals: GM -6%, Ford -7.2%, Toyota -4.4%, Fiat-Chrysler -7.0%
  3. May 1: Consumer Spending Flat, PCE Inflation Weakest Showing In 16 Years, Rate Hike Odds Rising

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Laughable FOMC Statements on Phillips Curve, Inflation Expectations

The Jan 30-31 FOMC minutes were published today. In addition to the usual drivel came laughable Phillips Curve nonsense.

Don’t Worry Weakness is Transitory: Fed Expects a Second Quarter Rebound, Higher Equity Prices

The word of the day is transitory. That’s my take on the release of the March 14-15 FOMC Minutes.

“Idiosyncratic and Transitory Factors” Holding Down Inflation: New Definition of Transitory

The latest Personal Incomes and Outlays report showed that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index was only up 1.4% from the same quarter a year ago.

Fed Will be "Patient" as Low Inflation is "Transitory"

The Fed minutes of the April 30-May 1 FOMC meeting are posted. The Fed will be patient.

Fed Cuts Interest Rate 3rd Time in 2019 With Hints of a Pause

The FOMC committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent.

Bond Market Reaction to Housing

No Reaction In light of the highly-touted strength in new home sales with prices at record highs, one might have expected US Treasury yields to soar. Let’s take a look at what did happen.

Fed Minutes Suggest Gradual Rate Hikes Coming: Little Market Reaction

As expected, the Fed signaled gradual rate hikes are coming.

Rate Cut Odds Shrink Dramatically Following FOMC Decision

The odds the Fed Funds Rate would be 1.75% to 2.00% fell from 54.2% yesterday to 0% today.

Rate Hike Cycles, Gold, and the “Rule of Total Morons”

In response to Janet Yellen’s everything is OK speech following today’s balance sheet reduction notice by the FOMC committee