According to Census Data nearly half of small businesses don’t have enough cash to go more than a month.
Axios provided the lead cartogram.
Michigan is the worst-hit state. Florida, Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania, are also are among the states where small businesses report being hit hardest.
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Florida
Ohio
I believe Biden will carry Florida, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Two of 3 would tip the election easily.
Yes, I know it’s early, things can change, the 2016 polls were wrong (but not by as much as most believe), etc. etc. etc. etc. and etc.
Those Who Hate Trump and Biden Will Decide the Election
The swing voters, not the alleged Bernie Sanders sitouts will decide the election as noted in Those Who Hate Trump and Biden Will Decide the Election.
“It’s not 2016 anymore, OK?” said Christopher Nicholas, a longtime Republican consultant based in Pennsylvania. “There’s no way Joe Biden will be as bad a candidate as Hillary Clinton.”
Importantly, “People like that choose the devil they don’t know,” added Nicholas.
Extremely Narrow Path
The path for Trump is an extremely narrow one.
It is unlikely, not impossible for Trump to repeat. By unlikely I mean something like 6-4, not 9-1.
Lots of things can happen, but that goes both ways. What appears to be comfortable Biden win can easily turn into a blowout.
Mish
Morning Joe had an interesting segment on how well Joe Biden is polling with old people in these swing States. Joe thinks Donald Trump and the Republican Party are losing them with the often made points that it’s mostly old people who die which is no big deal. I’ll tell you who is terrified of this virus – old people! Guess who has the highest voter turnout – old people! Also, Morning Joe talked about the flawed strategy of attacking Biden as too old. Trump is old too. Also, old people like to vote for old people so don’t attack on age if you need them. The old white people in swing states killed Hillary.
Having more than 100,000 dead old people on his resume is gonna be hard to overcome. With so many states trying to reopen it will probably be over 150,000 sadly.
When the Durham investigation is complete and the facts and evidence are on full display along with the indictments, the clear thinking voters in the middle will decide this election.
It will not be long before resentment and rage is kindled by the 90% left out of the feds largess. $Trillions spent to make the One Percenters whole at the expense of the presently impoverished and future taxpayers (the young) is a destabilizing factor going forward, no?
The political question will be, who is most to blame for directing the feds flood away from the average hurting citizen and toward the privileged connected elite? The Congress or the White House? What political machinations lie before us as municipal, county and state governments come to grips with this unfolding revenue drought? Will they favor preserving their positions of privilege over providing services? Do we yet see any politician striving to get ahead of these issues, or will they be gobsmacked again?
November seems a lot further off when these ideas are contemplated!
Pelosi gets house to approve another $3 trillion in stimulus cash but Moscow Mitch and the fat orange one refuse to allow it to even come to a senate vote and to veto if it ever did pass the GOP senate.
Who do you think the 90% will blame?
And mind you by November the depression will be not only worse but entrenched, close to 55% of all small and medium sized businesses say they will not be rehiring the employees they let go. Also the same survey published at CNBC said that more than one third of small businesses forced to close say they have not got the ability to reopen ever.
Debt and stimulus cash may be the bette noir of the GOP (the only debt they do not love is that passed by democrats for the 90%) but without it the country WILL fail, break up. This economic crisis is so large and so deep that the great depression will pale next to it, and so sudden and severe that people just do not have the time to float till things can get better. There will be blood. Millions and tens of millions will have absolutely nothing left to lose.
I hate to say it but a UBI that sounded absurd just a matter of months ago now sounds like the only way to get through this. Say $2k per month for six months and renewable at a rate that is at that time deemed needed.
But what must come with that (and won’t) is a heafty increase in taxes on the top 10% that the GOP simply is never going to allow. It is going to happen, just not under the current government. Meaning the voters are going to vote out these clowns in the biggest landslide in history. I do not even like Biden but I plan to vote for him simply because Trump and the GOP would destroy the nation. I am not exaggerating nor being hyperbolic. America will break up if this goes on. Nothing is “normal” now, and politics is no exception.
Coronavirus devastating small businesses: One-third won’t reopen, 55% won’t rehire same workers, Facebook survey finds
One overlooked change in Silicon Valley (and thus the financial viability of California, since SV is the tax mule) is that “working from home” is becoming normalized. What sane person would continue to live in Silicon Valley if they could “work from home” from anywhere else in the world. Even if engineers took a 25% pay cut, they could be living like kings elsewhere.
California is the antithesis of “battleground state,” but if you’re talk about long-term prospects of a state, California is surely mortally wounded.
I live on the northern peninsula. I disagree with you in terms of where to live. The Bay Area is a great place to live in terms of weather and all the activities available. That being said, Sunnyvale, Santa Clara, San Jose, etc. would not be my top choices as it is too hot and crowded down there. Then there are the infrastructure problems living in many other areas, especially internet connectivity, which is going to be necessary to work from home successfully.
You also have to remember that an awful lot of people don’t like their home environments and miss interacting physically with others, which is a point that has been brought out in many recent news interviews.
I too live in the Bay Area. I used to think we would lose more jobs here and it just never happens. I’ve watched for more than 30 years and I think we keep growing because CEOs and venture capitalists want to live here. I hope more remote work takes hold because we don’t have enough housing but it won’t. Maybe a few days a week but not permanent offsite at scale. Most people abhor it
Texas is about to go full Covid-19 parabolic, and will be a battleground state.
“Texas is about to go full Covid-19 parabolic…”
I am sure that is what you wish.
Half the deaths in here in California have been in nursing homes. Governor Newsom failed to protect them with his shut down orders.
Texas is opening their economy with the highest daily new case load of the crisis, 2000+ on Friday May 15, 2020. You do the math.
Mobility equals virus spread. If you don’t understand that at this point you are probably never will.
As for wishing. I do not wish for this virus to continue spreading. I wish we would stop being a collection of selfish individuals and do something for the common health of ALL.
Destroying the economy is doing great harm. Do the math. In a crashed economy there is no common health of all. People are stressed about the possibility of losing their business. Others are stressed over losing a job. Mental depression and drug abuse to cope are being talked about.
Locally, the streets in my L.A. adjacent city are rather busy with cars during business hours and have been. People do go to grocery stores, Home Depot, Walmart, etc. Others have still been going to work. People haven’t just been sitting at home. The number of new cases has never dropped to zero, in spite of a “shut down” that has been going on for two months. Mobility never went away.
What makes you think that the economy would be any better with no shutdown. There would be more sick people, more dead people, and with that people would choose to self quarantine and isolate. People don’t want to get sick and die. It is literally coded/hardwired into our brains.
Open it up. Give it 2-3 weeks and cases will surge, and 2-3 weeks later deaths will surge. People will get scared and go home. If I die there is no economy for me.
Would you personally go to work if at your job people are getting sick and dying? I wouldn’t, most wouldn’t. If you would you are a fool.
Would you stay home with CV19 fear if the government wasn’t giving you unemployment and stimulus checks? I’d wager the answer would be a big fat NO!
Doesn’t really matter what you think anyways. All the state economies are opening (they have to in order to not allow competing states to get an economic advantage). Cities and towns everywhere are running budget deficits all of a sudden. Stories in my local paper each day are about how many new layoffs and salary cuts are occurring. There is nothing worse for a politician that to have to cut budget, layoff workers and find ways to milk residents for more money to close budget gaps.
More and more people are going to be mingling and taking off those silly masks. Government cannot afford to reimpose shutdowns and even if they try, many more people are going to ignore them this time around. The die has been cast. There will be no going back for anything less than millions of sudden deaths and that ain’t going to happen because most people recover form a bout of CV19.
So sad for your arguments! [lol]
Cities, towns, and states that have no income tax are getting killed because they rely upon sales taxes and sales have (with few exceptions) had a massive coronary.
Good luck, it is the Virus not the lockdowns, covidiot!
4 ppl dies in the two offices I work in. Many more got sick and recovered at home. The numbers of survivors is MUCH higher that the deaths.
If you think any country can wait this out you are mistaken. It’ll be here for yrs. And economic collapse will kill FAR more many ppl as hospitals close due to lack of funding that comes with economic collapse. Hospitals in post-Soviet Russia, present day Venezuela and post collapse Greece were/are hellholes.
This blog has become nothing more than orgy of Hussman-like pessimism projections, confirmational bias & TDS.
So why you still here?
Don’t just think of the presidential election. If people are still hurting economically come October, if many are not back to work then as voters, they are going to take it out on incumbents across the board.
Given that many business owners tend to lean red and to vote more than average people, it is very possible that while Biden may well take out Trump, due to Trump bleeding out from all the shots he has made into his feet and legs, local and perhaps Congress Republicans may gain in the election.
I am a small business owner, and I would have preferred to close. I lost about $2,000 a week being open, while my loss would have been about $1000 a week to be closed. My competitors were all open, so I had to open as well.
I expect revenue to be down 60-70% the first year after we reopen. I’d rather stay closed.
At the same time, I think the forced shut downs were the wrong move… so I’m torn.
When dot-gov allows everybody else to open and I don’t, it’s going to look bad. It’s about me predicting a complete lack of customers, not any virus. But I’ll spin it as concerns about operating safely.
I’ll probably close down my stores over this. Come back 2022ish. I can reopen but surveying the moms who are our customers, they’re not coming back any time soon. In March/April I was guessing my business would be down 50-70% when we reopened, but I’m watching re-openings in my industry and they’re down over 90%.
But the relevance to your post… though I think Trump AND the governors handled this terribly, the virus hasn’t hurt my business. The irrational fear and coming depression are what’s going to convince me not to reopen.
Plus landlords trying to play hardball with rent for the 8+ weeks I’ve been shuttered. Tried to buy myself out of the leases but they wouldn’t take it. I have no personal guarantee, looking forward to them getting nothing now. Pigs get slaughtered.
Also, in the USA this has become partisan, with Team Blue tagging itself as the “lets stay inside until nobody can die” motto and Team Red tagging itself as the “we need to reopen the economy and live life without fear” motto.
As time increases on the x-axis, Team Red is going to see public opinion shift their way.
Maybe yes, maybe no. It depends on the results in real life. Will deaths cease by October? Will deaths be accelerating sharply in October/November? At one extreme it will be a red win, at the other a blue win. In between, it will be a typical election.
Every voter will know somebody who has lost a job.
Most voters will know somebody who was financially devastated.
A small minority of voters will know somebody who has died from COVID.
Are they equal? No. Are people rational? No.
Its pigs get fed, hogs get slaughtered.
I was going off the bears/bulls/pigs metaphor. Have it your way though.
I don’t have no dog in the election but I agree about Florida. Even in 2016 with Clinton being the nominee Florida was still very close. Disapproval of Trump by elderly voters, massive in state migration should allow Biden to carry it narrowly.
“Michigan, Florida, Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania are among” are 5 states, not 4. I presume you are giving the Yoopers their own state.
I don’t think listing Michigan twice means it can be counted twice.
“I don’t think listing Michigan twice means it can be counted twice.”
Doh! Don’t give them any ideas!