by Mish

November 4, 2016: 4th Quarter Nowcast Highlights

  • The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 1.6% for 2016:Q4.
  • Overall positive news during the last two weeks pushed the nowcast for Q4 up 0.2 percentage point.
  • Manufacturers’ shipments and ISM manufacturing survey data had the largest positive contributions in the last two weeks.

November 4, 2016: 4th Quarter Nowcast Detail

Image placeholder title

Mish Comments

RECOMMENDED ARTICLES

The GDPNow Forecast rose from 2.1% to 3.1% since the last estimate.  0.8 percentage points was due to auto sales.

The FRBNY Nowcast report does not even factor in auto sales.

Also note that exports added 0.019 percentage points to Nowcast, but 0.06 percentage points to GDPNow.

Once again it’s not the data per se that drives either forecast, rather, it’s the data vs. what the model predicted.

Regardless, there is a massive difference in how these models see things right now.

At least one of these models is way wrong.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Dueling GDP Estimates: GDPNow vs. FRBNY Nowcast

Both the Atlanta Fed GDPNow and the New York Fed Nowcast updated their models today. Let’s take a look at where they stand for second-quarter GDP.

Nowcast Leapfrogs GDPNow in 1st Quarter GDP Forecast

The latest first quarter GDP estimate by the New York Fed Nowcast jumped to a new high of 3.1%.

Investigating Curious Anomalies in GDPNow and Nowcast GDP Estimates

As of last Friday, the Atlanta Fed GDFPNow model for the second-quarter GDP stood at 3.4%. In contrast, the FRBNY Nowcast report was 2.2%.

GDPNow 1st Quarter Estimate Dips to 1.2%, FRBNY Nowcast 3.1%: One Model is Seriously Wrong

The Atlanta Fed GDPNOw Model for 1st quarter GDP dipped once again today and now sits at 1.2% as of March 9.

GDPNow vs. Nowcast Update

Both the Atlanta Fed and New York Fed updated their GDP model forecasts today. There was little change in either.

Nowcast Ends with 3.9% 4th-Quarter GDP forecast, 1st Quarter at 3.1%

Nowcast does its final forecast on the day GDP comes out. It concludes it's 4th-quarter forecast at 3.9%.

GDPnow, Nowcast Boost Fourth-Quarter GDP Estimates

GDPNow upped its 4th-quarter GDP estimate to 3.3% from 2.9% a week ago. Nowcast upped its forecast to 4.0% from 3.9%.

Nowcast 4th Quarter 2016 and 1st Quarter 2017 Forecasts Dip Slightly: Three Hikes in 2017?

The FRBNY Nowcast for 4th quarter GDP dipped slightly today on account of the wholesale inventory report earlier this week.

4th Quarter Forecast: Nowcast 3.2% vs GDPNow 3.3% (Down from 4.5% on Nov. 1)

Following the ISM manufacturing report, the GDPNow model upped its 4th quarter GDP forecast from 2.9% to 4.5%. Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Nowcast weighed in with a 3.2% forecast. Also today, GDPNow revised its forecast to 3.3%.