First Germany, Now France
The eurozone recovery is faltering, first with Germany, now with France.
French Factories Suffer Worst Quarterly Output Drop Since 2012.
Germany
In February, German Industrial Output fell by 1.6 percent after rising by a revised 0.1 percent in January, data from the Economy Ministry showed. February’s drop was the biggest since August 2015 and compared with a Reuters consensus forecast for a rise of 0.3 percent.
In March, German Industrial Production Rebounded 1.0% but that would seem to leave Germany in the red.
Upswing Intact?
Germany’s economy minister said the ‘Upswing Remains Intact‘ and industrial output edged up 0.1 percent on the quarter.
Really?
The math seems screwy, no doubt due to seasonal adjustments or lies, but here’s the kicker: “Factory orders dropped for a third month running in March as foreign demand weakened.“
Germany New Orders Dip 0.9% in March
As translated from Destatis.
According to preliminary data from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) in March 2018, price-adjusted new orders in the manufacturing sector were 0.9% lower than in the previous month, seasonally and calendar- adjusted . For February 2018, after revision of the preliminary results, there was a decrease of 0.2% compared to January 2018 (provisional value: + 0.3%).
Trump’s trade war with everyone and his reimposed Iran sanctions will add to European misery.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
In fact, the rates are negative. Try to open a bank account, and you are going to pay the bank for the privilege of lending your money. Mafia tried that trick and failed, so had to resort to extortion.
Fifth major weakness of the EU — extreme over-regulation, even worse than in US; think regulations on the curvature on imported bananas.
Sixth major weakness of the EU — it is by far the world’s largest fossil fuel importer, including oil, gas, coal; thus very exposed to the consequences of turmoil in distant places, and to political blackmail.
Seventh major weakness of the EU — excessive immigration of unassimilable elements, which is already radically transforming European culture.
Eighth major weakness of the EU … oh, we could go on & on. Suffice to say that the Europe of the future is going to be very different from the Europe of the past, and not in good ways.
Friendly reminder that people should remember the SHIFT + Enter trick for creating paragraph breaks. It’s a bit disconcerting opening a thread expecting 15 posts and seeing only 3 instead!
Don’t have much to add otherwise but will second Bam_Man’s sentiment of how crazy it is they’ve been at ZIRP so long. NIRP on the horizon?
Populism isn’t dead in the EU, just biding its time. However, I already think of pretty-boy Macron as populist. A populist for the bourgeoisie, not the mass of people per se.
Try squaring those 4 corners under their existing regime. How?
Four major weaknesses of the EU: Export dependence, Cost of Welfare, Debt, Youth Unemployment.
Apple just cancelled 800M Euro data centre in Ireland blaming planning consents. Nonsense, it was EU tax grab. I hope Apple have enough sense to go to the UK to receive a warm welcome and in exchange for French talent grabs the UK drops corporate taxes further to attract business.
They will try to steal as much talent from the UK as they can France tried in the past but was blocked by the EU when the UK was in the project. When outside the UK is fair game.
The EU is so export dependent it can’t afford to p-off too many but it’s managing to do that to at least one major market. They are so obsessed with the idea of punishment they fail to see damaging a good customer will damage them too.
BTW, the UK will suffer too. No free lunch for anyone.
Let’s see if the EU have enough emotional intelligence to avoid destroying their project. I, for one, doubt it. All will suffer. The Euro house will burn down with no fire escapes and the elite will blame everyone except their own arrogance.
The EU has exhibited substantial arrogance towards the UK even down to denying future access to the Galileo satellite network based on substantial UK knowhow and part funded by the UK. This attitude needs to change as it will BACKFIRE.
Prediction: If the scew-up Brexit the fat lady will sing. It won’t encourage further integration but be the straw on the camels back. Punishing the UK will backfire as Germany’s 2nd largest net export market and big for French cars.
Comments: Junker stated the US is losing vigour, this was a day or 2 prior to figures released. In usual EU double speak he was commenting on the EU.
They’ve already been at ZERO for the past six years.
Oh, wait.
I guess Draghi and the ECB will have to cut interest rates.