Fully Open Up Society Now? Really?

Dr. Dan Erickson and Dr. Artin Massihi say Open Up Society Now.

That article is making the rounds. It sounds nice. Many will be convinced.

I asked Chris Martenson a simple not leading question: “What is your response to this article?

To rule out any leading bias, that question, plus a link was the entire extent of my email to Chris. Here is his reply.

Check my Twitter feed. Statistician Carl took these doctors on. Sadly, they are talking pure junk.”

Note: Carl T. Bergstrom is a professor of biology at the University of Wisconsin.

Twitter Feed Response by Carl T. Bergstrom

  1. Unfortunately the misleading claims of those two doctors in Bakersfield keep making the rounds, so I want to very briefly address the problem with what they are saying.
     I won’t get into their possible motives, past political activity, etc. 
  2. What they did was simple: they looked at the fraction of patients who tested positive for #COVID19 at the clinics they own. They found 340 out of 5213 tests were positive, about 6.6%. Then they assume the same fraction of the whole population are infected.
  3. From there, they scale up to the state level and claim 12% incidence statewide. The news story says it is using the same calculation, but it can’t be—how did they get from 6.6% to 12%? Perhaps they estimating infected *ever* versus infected *currently*. It’s not clear.
  4. Using that 12% infected figure, and a known 1400 deaths in California, they assume 1400 out of 4.7 million have died. That gives them an infection fatality rate of 0.03%. That is, they think that if 10,000 are infected, 3 will die on average.
  5. The problem with this approach is that during a pandemic, the people who come into an urgent care clinic are not a random sample of the population. 
    A large fraction of them are coming in precisely because they suspect that they have the disease.  This generates sampling bias.
  6. Estimating that fraction infected from patients at an urgent care facility is a bit like estimating the average height of Americans from the players on an NBA court.
    It’s not a random sample, and it gives a highly biased estimate.
  7. Moreover the estimate does not pass even a basic plausibility check. In New York City, 12,067 people are known to have died from the virus, out of a population of 8.4 million.  This is a rate of 0.14% of all people. Not just infected people. All people.
  8. That gives us a lower bound on the death rate in New York. Not an estimate, a lower bound.
    The death rate for infected people is obviously higher than 0.14%, because not everyone in New York has been infected.
  9. And yet that 0.14% lower bound is nearly *five times as high* as the 0.03% that the Bakerfield duo are claiming. They’ve used absurd methodology to arrive at an implausible number.
    If the pandemic were not so severely politicized, this would be a non-issue from the start.

On Sampling Bias

https://twitter.com/drmikeny/status/1254543363715543041

A Bit of Perspective

https://twitter.com/scottevanjenk/status/1254537877603614722

I asked Martenson his opinion for a few of reasons.

  • Most know Chris Martenson as an economic writer but he also has a PhD in pathology.
  • I know him personally as a straight shooter.
  • Had that study changed his mind, I would have listened. 

Unfortunately, people cling to what they want to hear. 

Worse yet, these charlatan doctors sound like they know what they are talking about, enough so to be offering dangerous advice that many will follow.

OK, When?

We do need to open up the economy. We cannot stay locked down forever.

I will have more to say on when and how later today. 

Mish

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aprnext
aprnext
3 years ago

You ‘sorta’ liked this vid??? I watched due to your, uh, rather restrained (?) response and simply fell on the floor. Anyway you can recommend to Mish, and the rest of the USA, really, to watch this thing?

MishMeMuch
MishMeMuch
3 years ago

Jesus would have healed those in the clinic.

What kind of a nutjob would be so stupid to ask such a question?

MishMeMuch
MishMeMuch
3 years ago

Freedom is Life.

Tyranny is Death.

Totally verifiable FACTS.

Now tell me how the lockdown and economic heist will not kill many many many more people than CV19.

Another tool working against freedom and for tyranny.

Prove you are not Mish.

Science like journalism is about constantly questioning. At least you are honest and pray at the altar of “experts” who we shall never question.

So many 4our letter words are so deserving to label such evil…

JFDIagain
JFDIagain
3 years ago

Interesting article from…

Avery
Avery
3 years ago
Reply to  JFDIagain

Thanks for article about the Hong Kong flu. I didn’t see any media or hysterical suburban mom complaints about LBJ’s or Nixon’s response to it.

larryarie
larryarie
3 years ago

One man’s calculation based on a global mortality rate of .45%, a global infection rate of 40%, and 80% of deaths occurring to people over 65. – People under 65 face a mortality risk of 37 per 100,000 which is six times their death rate from flu. Over 65, 587 per 100,000 which is seven times their death rate from flu. These risks should be communicated so that people can make informed decisions for themselves.

lovethyneighbor
lovethyneighbor
3 years ago
Reply to  larryarie

BULLSHIT NONSENSE and more LIES. .001% Death rate for Covid.

See Jon Rappaport. https://nomorefakenews.com

Avery
Avery
3 years ago
Reply to  larryarie

How about Governor J.B. Pritzker’s BMI of 60, way into the morbidly obese comorbidity range. Out of an abundance of caution he should be isolated at Stateville Prison.

Waafootball
Waafootball
3 years ago

Mish, It is more than just these 2 doctors. There are antibody studies from Stanford, USC, NY Health Dept, University of Miami, just to name a few. We will see more in the coming weeks. Also, how do you explain Sweden? This has been over-hyped from the beginning. This will turn out to be one of the biggest global mistakes in the last 200 years.

CA2020
CA2020
3 years ago
Reply to  Waafootball

How do you explain Sweden?

Sweden population 10.1 Million, Cases ~21000, Deaths 2586

Norway and Finland Combined population 11.2 Million, Cases ~12,205, Deaths 663

Go look at a map they are neighbors.

Sweden has done less than half of the testing that Norway and Finland have done.

Sweden has almost 4 times as many dead.

So are you saying that Sweden staying open is smart and we should have done the same thing?

Would it be acceptable to you for 250,000 in the US to die so we all can go about our business? Was the initial estimates of 2.2 million acceptable?

If you are going to site Sweden as your glorious example do a little research first so you do not look like a Covidiot.

FromBrussels
FromBrussels
3 years ago
Reply to  CA2020

Belgium 49K cases and 7.700 deaths on a 11 mln population WITH lockdown ! Tell me we are doing better than Sweden !

MATHGAME
MATHGAME
3 years ago
Reply to  Waafootball

Belgium’s population almost matches Sweden … but its population density is nearly 16 times greater. Also, Belgium did not close its borders as part of its lockdown. But there is a likely more significant explanation …

To quote from one article of many found by Googling for: “Why does Belgium have the highest COVID-19 death rate per million people?”

(and this reason is explained in MANY of those articles)

“Belgian officials say they are counting in a way that no other country in the world is currently doing: counting deaths in hospitals and care homes, but including deaths in care homes that are suspected, not confirmed, as Covid-19 cases.

According to Belgium’s latest official figures, out of 7,703 deaths, 53% have been in care homes.

Some 16% of deaths in care homes were tested positive for coronavirus. The rest are suspected.

That means more than 3,500 deaths have been counted as caused by Covid-19, but not confirmed.”

Brochacho
Brochacho
3 years ago

I didn’t read any mention of the antibody testing. It is showing that 15% of NY was already infected. That gives us a death rate around a half a percentage ie 0.5% or less. That is a significantly lower mortality rate. It is more deadly than flu, but as the Swedes have shown us, hide the vulnerable and open up the rest. They are approaching a herd immunity and will avoid the second wave.

lovethyneighbor
lovethyneighbor
3 years ago
Reply to  Brochacho

You are all drunk. Covid is lies. The CDC gave very direct orders to mark every death COVID. Wake up. The lock down was the biggest fraud played by the deepstate on the media and the media on the people of the world.

WAKE UP. You are all drunk. No new deaths occurred in the world in 2020. All who died would have died. Its sad to lose someone close, very sad but it happens all the time.

NOTICE the amount of deaths that did NOT occur simply because the Broken WESTERN HEALTH CARE system which kills more than it helps has been closed.

Carneigie created the health care on 1910. This is about VACCINES. Forced Vaccines. WHY?? To end the new births of people with spiritual desires. Make sure that part of the brain no longer lights up.

Start with that. Do you want to see how fucked we are. Start following the doctors. Andrew Kaufman is a good start.

WAKE UP the hospitals are empty.

frozeninthenorth
frozeninthenorth
3 years ago

Another way of looking at the impact of Covid 19 is to look at historical death rates in city/state/nation and see how these numbers compare with this year. Statis will tell you everything you need to know because in a large population death is the one truth (Since you need death certificates!

I think its a much simpler way at looking at the impact of Covid 19 on a large population sample. It has the simple elegance of being simple and statistically robust

Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago

Either something else is killing a lot more people than last year, or the covid deaths are massively underreported.

ToInfinityandBeyond
ToInfinityandBeyond
3 years ago

If the below quote is correct then I suspect these 2 fine doctors are just trying to drum up business for their urgent care facility.
“Dr. Daniel W. Erickson of Bakersfield, California, is a former emergency-room physician who co-owns, with his partner Dr. Artin Massih, Accelerated Urgent Care in Bakersfield.

bradw2k
bradw2k
3 years ago

Q: What do you call a person who graduated last in his class at a low-rated medical school?

A: “Doctor”

How the F someone gets through med school yet doesn’t understand the basics of statistical inference is beyond me.

Anyway, I want to find out how many people believe in Santa Claus, so I’m going to take a poll at a five-year-old’s birthday party, then extrapolate to the entire planet.

Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  bradw2k

I have an engineering degree, and I gotta admit, most of my statistical learning has left me. I just haven’t used it day to day.

bradw2k
bradw2k
3 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz

Doctors have to keep up on research, so I imagine they are exposed to the issue of inference from study data indefinitely. And this was a REALLY basic error these guys did with extrapolating from “their data” to the entire county — like an honors high school student would detect it.

There was a follow-up interview with the left doctor, the statistics-impaired one, and he tried to claim that his data set really was “random” because they were getting people coming in for all sorts of reasons, not just those who thought the might have COVID. … As Gwyneth Paltrow might say: It’s all easy.

ToInfinityandBeyond
ToInfinityandBeyond
3 years ago
Reply to  bradw2k

As my late brother in law surgeon used to say if someone is an ae going into medical school then they will still be an ae when they graduate medical school.

granite
granite
3 years ago

Social media is an amazing and rapid condemnation machine but what these doctors did is really being mischaracterized here. They did not extrapolate data from their own clinic, they used the data available from various sources. For example, they compared Sweden (with minimal shutdown) to Norway (with major shutdown) using data from those countries. To suggest that their analysis is flawed because they failed to use randomized data is a disingenuous comment, since it should be clear to anyone who is reading current events that such data does not exist, i.e. no one is testing random samples of their populations. So everyone is doing what these doctors did – using the next best available substitute.
When the first models suggesting millions of possible deaths came out, draconian measures seemed like the way to go. It’s been clear now for a while that the danger is far lower than that, that the extreme measures are having very little effect, and that they are very poorly and unequally applied. I’m 69 and I run a small store, so I’m high risk and I intend to continue to be cautious for an undetermined period of time. But I can quarantine myself. The whole of society doesn’t need to quarantine itself to protect me.

Jdog1
Jdog1
3 years ago
Reply to  granite

Sweden has 244 deaths per 1 million population
Norway has 38 deaths per 1 million population.

I would say what Sweden is doing is not working very well……

bradw2k
bradw2k
3 years ago
Reply to  granite

Extrapolating from their own sample set to estimate the infection rate and an IFR for their own county is literally the first major point the left doctor makes. And they both keep re-iterating through the video about how they are just talking about their county, and what they are seeing “on the ground.” Overall they are not completely cogent, but that was their principle argument. But yes they say other things, some of which make sense.

I think their point that gov policy needs to be local and NOT statewide is correct. In my state, Oregon, the rural counties have almost no cases, but are under the same Executive Orders as applied to Portland, Salem, etc. Actually this caused a big problem: the rural hospitals were starting down the path towards bankruptcy, so the Governor had to reverse course last week and let all medical offices open up.

Ken Kam
Ken Kam
3 years ago
Reply to  granite

” .. The whole of society doesn’t need to quarantine itself to protect me.” Bravo, and lesson to Herkie above.

sh310
sh310
3 years ago

looking at it from this Californian perspective: CA 2018 flu deaths: 7k, Covid deaths: 1.8k as of today. Hospitals in LA area are empty. Try to justify the hospitals postponing of a friends cancer surgery for the wave of Covid patients that may or may not come

Jdog1
Jdog1
3 years ago
Reply to  sh310

What you are actually saying is that because the lock down worked, and it kept the death rate down, we should not have done it… Perhaps you would be happier if CA followed the NY or Italian example and killed many times more people….

Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  Jdog1

All those people would be dead within the next 100 years anyhow. What’s the big deal?

CA2020
CA2020
3 years ago
Reply to  sh310

You are a Covidiot

RonJ
RonJ
3 years ago
Reply to  CA2020

You parrot yourself very well.

Jdog1
Jdog1
3 years ago

The ability to think critically is a rare commodity in our country today.

The “powers that be” want this thing to be over ASAP, because this thing is not only costing them gillions of dollars a day, it is destroying everything they have worked decades to build.
The entire debt based economy, globalism, and trust in the institutions are all being threatened by this shut down.
For the leaders of every country world wide to commit financial suicide and shut down their own economies because of this thing tells you they know how serious this thing really is.

Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  Jdog1

No no… you’ve got it all wrong. The leaders of the world are in collusion with Lord Soros to send robots to steal donald trump’s medicine.

Gman007
Gman007
3 years ago
Reply to  Jdog1

Perhaps…but its also a period where the greatest transfer of wealth every imagined is trading hands at the fastest rate ever imagined.

Of course Jeff is chump change compared to the family wealth of that small group of Federal Reserve shareholders…


Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago

Speaking of Covid denying whackjobs, here’s something you might or might not end up seeing on the news. Guy walks into a medical clinic for his appointment but won’t put on a mask. They won’t let him in without it, he gets aggro, and starts punching the security guard. Doctor jumps in to help, knocks the doctor down (ended up with a nasty back injury). Eventually the nurses jump in, and they all sit on said whackjob until the cops come get him.

The sheer raging sense of entitlement and lack of care for other people of this guy is mirrored in a lot of the posts here. Y’all ask yourselves: What would Jesus do?

Peaches11
Peaches11
3 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz

He’d say “f-this country I’m outa here” and walk away over the pacific to a deserted island.

WildBull
WildBull
3 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz

Perhaps Jesus would cure him of his mental illness and his C19, if he had it. Perhaps he owns a small business and is seeing years of effort flushed down the toilet along with hid kid’s college education and his house.

The true death rate is somewhere between NYC’s .14% and 3%. Nobody knows for sure. Another thing that nobody knows for sure is when the damage and death from these restrictions surpasses the damage that C19 might cause. Do we wait for famine, riots and wars. They will surely come.

Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  WildBull

Yeah, Jesus would definitely roll those dice against other people’s lives to protect His profits.

I’m not a believer, but I do hope you meet Him someday.

Gman007
Gman007
3 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz

What would Jesus do? Good question! I’ve spent my life researching His guidance and direction. But I couldn’t venture a guess as to how it would go in that precise situation. Misinformation is in abundance. Perspectives are vastly different and vastly polarized.

The first step is likely to attempt to clear up the misinformation. But people choose to believe what they want to believe which creates some real challenges all the way around (Tavistock Institute has spent decades studying social engineering).

I can’t learn if I don’t want to be taught. I also can’t learn if I believe I already have all the answers. What also creates additional challenges is there is another side of the coin to Jesus…a fallen brother hell bent on destroying and making miserable everyone on the planet to the degree he is capable – i.e. supremely selfish.

One good aspect of this COVID-19 (dangerous or harmless, weapon or wild craft, intentional or unintentionally unleashed, etc etc etc)…..

It provides an opportunity to look at ourselves, our families, our communities, and our nations…and reflect on where we have been….and where we are going. What’s really important and what do we want most out of life???

In the greater scheme of things…the situation you note…provides opportunity or a test if you will…to which brother or doctrine will we subscribe to???

Jesus will do as He has done…which is the straight and narrow course of abiding by eternal laws…an eternal course from which He won’t vary or He would cease to be God. He set the example to follow. He put forth His doctrine or described a few of those eternal laws, covenants, and ordinances we must abide by if we are to try and follow His course. He paid the unfathomable price to provide us with the opportunity to correct course within the given framework of this mortality and follow His.

I believe the real question which you are attempting to address (please correct me if I’m off base here)…is what will we do? Which side will we choose? Only two sides to this coin…either have to choose one or the other.

For those who consider themselves nonreligious whether by ignorance or personal choice…its important to the framework of COVID-19. It is encapsulated in the argument of freedom vs. coercion/control. Do we allow people to do what they think is best? Or do we force them to our way of thinking? Do we stab the guy not wearing the mask (whatever the reason)? Or stab the guy wearing the mask (whatever the reason)? Ankle bracelets? Papers? Mandatory vaccinations? Allowed to work? Forced to stay home? Forced to work? Mandatory debt? Mandatory taxes? Basic income? A few who decide what’s best for the many?

Do we allow freedom to choose how we conduct ourselves along with the associated consequences? Or do “we”…whoever “we” is…choose for everyone else what the choices will be along with the consequences…or lack thereof.

You may not like this or find it pertinent because of the “religious” context….but the fundamental core problems we face today…are not that different from yesterday. One coin with two sides. We either choose the one or the other. Influences abound. Misinformation abounds. Truth abounds…though admittedly difficult to decipher and obtain at times. One fact though – wickedness or selfishness never was nor ever will be happiness. The golden/platinum rule.

jfpersona1
jfpersona1
3 years ago
Reply to  Gman007

TL;DR

By the end, did you come up with something different than punch people until they sit on you?

Gman007
Gman007
3 years ago
Reply to  jfpersona1

Good point! And no that’s not the golden/platinum (unselfish) way of doing things…

Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  Gman007

Well, that’s a lot, but I don’t see where it says Jesus would put profits over people. The bible stories I remember involve Jesus kicking over tables covered with money simply because he didn’t like where they were situated. Doesn’t seem like he was pro-business at all. Maybe you’ve confused prophets with profits.

The TV preachers will tell you different, but I think they have ulterior motives.

Gman007
Gman007
3 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz

He did more than kick over tables if memory serves me correctly…He braided a whip and put it to good use…

Also my interpretation is He didn’t take issue with business (parable of the talents for example where the fellow with one talent – equivalent to about 19 years of income w/6 day work weeks)…but took issue with usury or interest. Under the Law of Moses it was forbidden to charge interest internally (between Jews)…but ok externally (like the Romans, Greeks, and all others – i.e. gentiles).

Of particular interest in regards to your reference is when He cleared the temple…it was those doing business on temple grounds… particularly folks charging for sacrificial animals and to exchange money (trade Greek, Roman and Egyptian money for Jewish money) to those coming to worship and pay bekah (atonement money).

Essentially believing Jews were forced into a position where they had to make good on religious rites but coming in with external currency that couldn’t be used. And thus they were being taken advantage of…on holy grounds no less…and Jesus cleaned the house.

bradw2k
bradw2k
3 years ago

Bergstrom is at University of Washington, not Wisconsin.

El_Ted0
El_Ted0
3 years ago

Questioning Dr. Dan Erickson and Dr. Artin Massihi’s numbers is completely valid, but accepting unquestioning NY’s death claims and considering the economic incentives for attributing all these deaths to Covid is ridiculous.

Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  El_Ted0

I’m betting you also believe that there is a some nebulous Global Conspiracy to cash in on the Climate Change Hoax, and that the poor, beleaguered oil companies have no motivation whatsoever to spread lies to protect their profits.

El_Ted0
El_Ted0
3 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz

Nothing nebulous about the climate alarmist hysteria industry.

bradw2k
bradw2k
3 years ago
Reply to  El_Ted0

Yes, I don’t think the attribution of COVID as cause of death to New York numbers is going to age well.

Louis Winthorpe III
Louis Winthorpe III
3 years ago

Dr. Daniel Erickson, DO … graduated from Western Univ Of Health Sciences/College Of Osteopathic Medicine Of The Pacific, Western University Of Health Sciences in 2004 and specializes in emergency medicine.

In case anyone is wondering, USNews rates this school:

#94-122 in Best Medical Schools: Research
#94-122 in Best Medical Schools: Primary Care

And, if I had to guess, also #94-122 in statistics.

BaselineT
BaselineT
3 years ago

Chris Martinsen may be a virologist, however he has a stake in this argument also. Last time I checked, he makes his living off of panic. The more people panic, the more they pay for his services. He may be a bit more reasoned about his panic but that’s exactly what he is selling. I stopped reading him after he warned that the world was ending with Fukashima.

MishMeMuch
MishMeMuch
3 years ago
Reply to  BaselineT

Thank you for this

Expat
Expat
3 years ago

There are many out there who believe these assholes because they want to and because they are profoundly ignorant and stupid. There are many who believe these mass murderers because their bullshit aligns with the absurd and dangerous claims made by Captain Bonespurs. Others simply agree because they are right-wing and this sounds very right-wing (despite these two docs being Coastal Elites and possibly gay since they are “partners” in a clinic).

Let’s take all these believers and put them together in one community (I suggest we send them to Idaho…because who cares about Idaho, right?). Take away all forms of government support because they are probably not commies and would want to live like real Americans! Then make sure they all get infected. And let them die and so benefit the gene pool.

Sarcasm? Hmm, who knows anymore?

Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  Expat

I’m coming around to the idea that the red and blue states need to have their own separate countries. West Coast and North East coast for the blues, the rest for the reds. The blue side would benefit a lot from not sending all that tax money to the red side (could use it to build a wall), and the red side could do whatever it is they keep carrying on about not being able to do.

tokidoki
tokidoki
3 years ago

People should watch the video. My eyes glazed over when they mentioned that they had attended “hundreds of autopsies”.

Sure.

Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  tokidoki

Maybe they’re huge autopsy fans?

tokidoki
tokidoki
3 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz

An autopsy can take a while, plus you have to drive all over. And then they have their own business to run. Virtual autopsy? Don’t think anyone will set up one just because these guys asked nicely.

Peaches11
Peaches11
3 years ago

Catch 22
The longer the economy is shut down the bigger the wealth transfer from the middle class, the sooner it opens more people ( a small percentage of the population ) will die.
Take your pick.

numike
numike
3 years ago

Japan’s northern island of Hokkaido offers a grim lesson in the next phase of the battle against COVID-19. It acted quickly and contained an early outbreak of the coronavirus with a 3-week lockdown. But, when the governor lifted restrictions, a second wave of infections hit even harder. [Twenty-six days later, the island was forced back into lockdown.] link to time.com

NewUlm
NewUlm
3 years ago

The thing most people can’t get is the R0 of 3 to 5 means cases will peak 3-5x faster and so will the CFR. But, it also means that it will be over faster too – unlike the flue which lasts 6 months, C19 peak will be over in 60-80 days. You can NOT look at peaks to make projects, it has to annualized.

I think the overall rate will come in around .2 to .4… so 2-4x than a normal flu year but well below cancer and heart disease which kill 1.2 million annually (including over 200K under 50 years old).

And I looked at the ’57 and ’68 flu pandemics in the US… after adjusting for population 57 = 204K and 68 = 198K deaths… which is what we could see with C19.
Guess what they did not shut in health people and cause a great depression. Also, adjusting the Spanish flu for the population would be 2.17 Million deaths in the US today – we won’t get close to that.

Is this bad – YES, Are mitigation efforts working – Only to slow cases, it will not “burn out” and this strategy may make it worse in the long run – even limited antibodies in more of the population would be better in the fall.

Also, why aren’t we talking about who is actually at risk? If you don’t have co-morbidity this is LESS deadly than the flu, if you do it likely 5-10x worse. Data from NY and across the world shows co-morbidities in 90% plus of cases.

CA2020
CA2020
3 years ago
Reply to  NewUlm

The argument of a Covidiot

Flic1
Flic1
3 years ago

These guys were easy to figure even though they had a couple good points. Their Urgent Care practice is probably very slow right now but it seems their biggest concern is that their favorite cafe is shut down….

RonJ
RonJ
3 years ago
Reply to  Flic1

Denninger mentioned that crashing the economy crashes the medical system, as that happens to be part of the economy. I have read claims that some hospitals have had to shut down, as they stopped performing regular procedures, then wound up with a lack of Covid patients to replace them with.

Here in L.A. County, the death toll reached 1,000, but no one i know personally has gotten Covid, but two people i know personally, have had needed surgical procedures put on hold, one with cancer.

tokidoki
tokidoki
3 years ago

Does it matter? Market up. That’s all that matters.

Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
3 years ago
Reply to  tokidoki

Are you a 12 yr old?

tokidoki
tokidoki
3 years ago
Reply to  Tony Bennett

Honestly, you should direct that question to the market ………….

Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
3 years ago

“Dr. Daniel W. Erickson of Bakersfield, California, is a former emergency-room physician who co-owns, with his partner Dr. Artin Massih, Accelerated Urgent Care in Bakersfield.”

Financial

I have a relationship with an urgent care facility. Guess what? They are not busy. At all. People are scared to come and risk catching virus. And not just urgent care.

CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. (WVIR) – On Tuesday, April 28, the University of Virginia Health System announced it has had a deficit of $85 million per month since the onset of COVID-19 shutdowns. One of the biggest reasons for the loss of money is the lack of elective surgeries and clinic visits.
UVA Health spokesperson Eric Swensen says surgeries are down 70% and clinic visits are down 90%. To cut back on those losses, the health system will furlough non-patient staff.

Physicians will have their pay cut by 20% through July, and retirement contributions will be suspended through the end of July.

Isaiah217
Isaiah217
3 years ago
Reply to  Tony Bennett

I wonder how many die because they fear they are going to die from covid if they go to the hospital to treat them for the disease that ends up killing them anyways

Isaiah217
Isaiah217
3 years ago

“Unfortunately, people cling to what they want to hear”.
That applies to everyone, including you Mish.
“The simple believes everything, but the prudent gives thoughts to his ways”

pvguy
pvguy
3 years ago

So we have doctors who do not understand statistics, and statisticians who do not understand medicine. There is an additional wrinkle that The statisticians are only concerned with Covid-19 deaths, and the doctors are concerned with death from all sources. Delaying treatments for non-virus conditions is going to start killing people too. Somewhere there is a trade off.

And here in Grant County WA, we have had 3 virus deaths out of 90,000 people, or 0.003%. I don’t know why the virus hates New Yorkers, unless is it purely population density, or low level air pollution, but then LA would be hammered, and they are not. Still more questions than answers.

Mish
Mish
3 years ago
Reply to  pvguy

Washington reacted early – NY did not

Schaap60
Schaap60
3 years ago
Reply to  pvguy

LA locked down early too. Almost all the schools closed on March 13. It obviously helped. At this point though, I think people can make a better assessment of the risks, wear a mask, and social distance. So it makes sense to start easing the lockdown while continuing to test widely and encouraging people to take precautions.

BaronAsh
BaronAsh
3 years ago

Those doctors made a lot of sense to me. And they explained how they started off testing those with symptoms, then people who knew people with symptoms, then employers asked them to test employees so it would be safe for them to be in the workplace, then they started testing anyone who asked. So they began with those presenting symptoms and ended up doing a somewhat equivalent of a random trial. Their main point – and it is valid – is that the thing has spread far more than most ‘experts’ have been saying. Which also means that far more are asymptomatic which is another way of saying that it isn’t dangerous at all for the vast majority of people.

Those with co-morbidity factors (i.e. people who are very unhealthy) should self-isolate, be careful etc. Everyone else should wake up out of this collective – clearly manipulated – delusion, stop quoting ‘scientists’ and ‘experts’ as if they know what they are talking about, and try to rescue what’s left of the country before it’s too late and descends into the Orwellian nightmare leftists with conviction have been salivating over for more than a century now. If they get their way, millions will suffer and die, and some of them could be you.

Wake up!

Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  BaronAsh

Another global conspiracy! Gosh, who KNEW there could be so many?

wiredman
wiredman
3 years ago
Reply to  BaronAsh

You have the right idea. Open up and those who are at risk, say locked down on your own accord. They who are at risk and want everybody else to say locked down are selfish. We have enough data to open. But the hysteria continues.

CA2020
CA2020
3 years ago
Reply to  BaronAsh

Trump probably makes a lot of sense to you also, Covidiot!

MATHGAME
MATHGAME
3 years ago
Reply to  BaronAsh

I always love it when people write things like

“stop quoting ‘scientists’ and ‘experts’ as if they know what they are talking about”

and “Those doctors made a lot of sense to me. “

Except that even in his own post Baron Ash writes “they started off testing those with symptoms … then they started testing anyone who asked. So they began with those presenting symptoms and ended up doing A SOMEWHAT EQUIVALENT of a random trial.”

As if “anyone who asked” doesn’t show a strong bias toward people who already think they have some reason to believe they are or have been infected.

Baron Ash is basically saying “Don’t listen to THOSE experts … Listen to MY “experts” whom I’ve debunked in my own post”

LOL!

BaronAsh
BaronAsh
3 years ago
Reply to  MATHGAME

Fair point, but you ignored the thrust of what I was pointing out about the two doctors in that I think it was Mish (or someone) who had said that their data was a little meaningless because they were only testing sick people given they run acute care clinics. I was pointing out that although their early tests were for people presenting symptoms, their later tests were not, i.e. they were not clinic-only patients but many walk-ins only there to get tested.

So you made a good point, but it wasn’t really about what I was – however clumsily – trying to point out.

MATHGAME
MATHGAME
3 years ago
Reply to  BaronAsh

RE: “I was pointing out that although their early tests were for people presenting symptoms, their later tests were not, i.e. they were not clinic-only patients but many walk-ins only there to get tested.”

You missed my point that “walk-ins only there to get tested” shows a strong bias toward people who already think they have some reason to believe they are or have been infected. It is not random by a long shot.

BaronAsh
BaronAsh
3 years ago
Reply to  MATHGAME

And you missed MY point again: they were getting tested because their bosses wanted reassurance so they could go back into the workplace. I guess the use of the word walk-in was incorrect. So it started off with people thinking they were sick, yes, but at the end they were doing general testing of people who weren’t sick but needed to know they were ok for work reasons.

MATHGAME
MATHGAME
3 years ago
Reply to  BaronAsh

It would be wise to look for the news out of Paris, Texas today … a possible harbinger of things to come when localities think they have COVID-19 “controlled” and open prematurely / or / without “masks for all” in place … IOW, letting down their guard as though everything is magically “A-OK”, and then ….. BOOM!

BaronAsh
BaronAsh
3 years ago
Reply to  MATHGAME

Yeah, really scary. “He said the county saw a 38% increase in deaths over last week, but four fewer people died than two weeks ago.”

You either see it or you don’t. Some are convinced this is a major world pandemic; others see this as a bad virus being exploited for nefarious political ends. Both sides can come up with facts and figures to justify their positions.

That’s how it always is with facts and figures.
Which means they aren’t nearly as substantive as far too many of us have been led to believe.
For belief is all it is, ultimately.
Which is what Locke (or what it Hume) warned when the ‘scientific method’ was being developed a few centuries ago (by a salesman, as it happened). I can’t find the quote, but basically he maintained (correctly) that determining something as ‘fact’ is ultimately a matter of subjective opinion.

So from my pov, the fact is that this thing wasn’t nearly as bad as early dire warnings indicated it might have been, and now it’s time to readjust based on a more complete understanding and move forward into opening things back up, reacting intelligently to things like breakouts in old peoples’ homes or whatever, without panicking everyone into believing that every county in every state needs to hunker down in response to local flare-ups. Moreover, the sooner the population gets to herd immunity the better, and the shut-down only delays that, arguably doing more harm than good.

But that’s just my opinion. And of course it could be disastrously wrong.
As could yours.

MATHGAME
MATHGAME
3 years ago
Reply to  BaronAsh

RE: “You either see it or you don’t. Some are convinced this is a major world pandemic; others see this as a bad virus being exploited for nefarious political ends.”

I think that’s a false dichotomy. I think it’s definitely a bad virus, would have been far worse without the near world-wide lockdowns, and is also being exploited by the “never let a crisis go to waste crowd” that controls our politics.

RE: “that determining something as ‘fact’ is ultimately a matter of subjective opinion…. So from my pov, the fact [which you yourself admit is your subjective opinion] is that this thing wasn’t nearly as bad as early dire warnings indicated it might have been”

I think you are fully aware that those dire warnings were issued regarding what was to be expected had not any of the near world-wide lockdowns taken place.

RE: “and now it’s time to readjust based on a more complete understanding and move forward into opening things back up”

I wouldn’t say “more complete” but I would say “better” … there are still many unknowns about this virus.

RE: “Moreover, the sooner the population gets to herd immunity the better”

So many people keep speaking of “getting to herd immunity” yet many of the things that are very much unknown include the prevalence of, the strength of, and the duration of any so-called herd immunity!

After the Newsweek story about Dr. Fauci’s involvement with supporting and financing the dangerous “enhancement of function” research in the Wuhan lab, I have a sneaking suspicion that he was made aware by that lab and its well-known “bat lady” as to just what had happened and how terribly serious it was.

And as you say, I could be wrong, and you could be wrong … or we could both be partly right and partly wrong … none of us are “well-connected” enough to know anything for certain.

But let me ask a question I’ve asked before and received no answer to … Do you think the rather matter-of-fact attitude due to “it only really kills the old and infirm” would be the same if the mortality vs/ age curve was inverted i.e. if the vast majority of those dying were those under 50 with increasing death rates the younger the age and with virtually every child under 10 who is infected ending up dying while hardly anyone over the age of 65 even got seriously ill?

BaronAsh
BaronAsh
3 years ago
Reply to  MATHGAME

First, I am not convinced that the lockdowns have had a huge effect, esp given that other countries have done similarly without them. Also, the healthcare system came nowhere near breaking – indeed it was less stressed than typical flu season because so many other regular services were cancelled. The projections were way off, that’s the bottom line. Not slightly off: way off. That said, there is no real way of arguing against what you say: it’s unknown and unknowable, though again the experiences of countries like Taiwan, S. Korea and Sweden indicate that quite possibly locking down was a mistake.

As to your last question there is a key difference which you ignore, namely that a very high percent of those listed as dying from Covid have one or more co-morbidities and are quite old. If a virus was knocking out the same percentage of young people AND without co-morbidities, it would be a different animal. Furthermore, if it was killing many young, healthy people, it would be a veritable scythe of a pandemic for the old and infirm. So the hypothetical is well nigh impossible.

This is not a pandemic. It’s a very bad flu. Recent figures from CDC are about 50% lower than the one’s on the world data site which nearly all news outlets are using. This is more a political, than a medical, event.

I haven’t read Mish’s article on the economy not going back to normal. I look forward to going there next even though I pray he is wrong. If I am right and we are in the middle of a war (waged asymmetrically), then powerful networks have reached a point where they have to fight it out. One side delivers a broadside (the virus shutting down western economies) and then the receiving side has to weather the blow and then come up with a response or wait for the second blow or surrender. These things take time. But if I’m wrong and this is just a virus run amok, then given the HCQ + cocktail works just fine, if the world wants to slow this thing down, they can.

Unfortunately, being the cynic I am, I don’t think the powers that be want to slow it down (which is why industry hacks and bad actors like Fauxi are still in charge – supposedly). Trump says he wants a V-bottom and a return to normalcy soon. Either he knows stuff we don’t, or he is way over his head. If the latter, although those who hate him will be pleased, they might not be pleased with how bad things get later on down the pike…..

MATHGAME
MATHGAME
3 years ago
Reply to  BaronAsh

You probably should have stopped as soon as you said “That said, there is no real way of arguing against what you say: it’s unknown and unknowable.” It renders the rest of your opinions equivalent to any other opinions.

RE: “Furthermore, if it was killing many young, healthy people, it would be a veritable scythe of a pandemic for the old and infirm.”

Not necessarily … there are many differences between young and old that could make it possible for a virus to target the young without targeting the old.

But at least you acknowledged that a very high death rate among the young would “be a different animal”. And IMO that reveals the inherent, and IMO despicable bias, that permeates much of our society.

“The CBA says we’re actually better off without the drain of all those old people on healthcare and social security … and they’re hardly productive anymore … good riddance!”.

“They need to get out of the workforce and make room for the young! So if they don’t do that voluntarily maybe this will give them the incentive they need!”

“They were going to die soon anyway .. what difference does a year or few make?”

“Who cares? I’M not old!”

BTW, as far as your point about those two doctors … I think it was missing me rather than vice-versa … You finally clarified it and it hit target. But until recently all anti-body tests had such poor sensitivity and specificity that they rendered results statistically suspect at best, meaningless at worst. With the more recently announced test(s) … link to bbc.com … we’ll be able to have more confidence in results. They might confirm the results of those two doctors … or not … but at least the answers will be less “unknowable”.

Finally, I too have become very suspect of the incessant bad-mouthing of HCQ+zinc+Z-pac. Couple that with the fast-tracking of a very expensive Remdesivir that seems suspect at best, and the constant drumbeat for “the vaccine” (when they’ve haven’t found a vaccine for any cold-causing coronavirus yet) and it sure does seem we might be being taken for a ride right to Big Pharma companies’ bank accounts.

BaronAsh
BaronAsh
3 years ago
Reply to  MATHGAME

As always, a good reply.

I disagree generally in the young vs old issue above. Of course there might possibly be something that mainly goes after the young but doesn’t affect the old, but my point was that generally speaking, anything virulent enough to be mowing down young people is probably ten times worse for the older and weaker, that’s all. As to whether or not there’s a prejudice against the young or old or whatever, I have no opinion on that, having never noticed or considered such a thing.

As to HCQ+: I go for the simplest explanations along with a general mistrust of mainstream media or whatever the official narratives are. So my simplest explanation is that ‘they’ don’t want the covid19 cured too quickly (or at all except by vaccine as part of general societal restructuring) and so they have suppressed its use by badmouthing it and also putting up roadblocks – making it hard to use outside of hospitals for example, whereas its greatest benefit is that it’s a highly effective – not to mention used to be cheap – prophylactic. I suspect that along with not wanting to cure the virus (it’s political gold for some), they also don’t want too many people figuring out that they’ll never need a flu shot again since it works like a charm with nearly all viruses, which is why it has proven so effective in malaria-ridden countries where it’s been used for 50+ years. Many other Big Pharma profit generators will be made redundant if too many people twig to just how effective a drug it is for most sorts of viral infection.

Fauxi pushes Remdesivir which was just a few percentage points better than the placebo, like around 40%; and badmouths HCQ with a 90%+ rate, and if you take away the US vets they used it on (all of whom were already terminal before being given it), the results would be closer to 98% or something. In other words, it works. It prevents infection in the first place if you take it prophylactically, and it cures you if you are infected, and used in conjunction with the right antibiotic, it will even get rid of the cytokine (?) storm which has combined with bacterial infections in the lung and, if uncured, results in death or permanent lung damage. No need for all those ventilators, in other words, and they knew it all along.

There is NO threat to the population from coronavirus, despite all of Mish’s impressive number-crunching (which ignores that CDC numbers are close to half many other global counting sites, and probably CDC is twice the actual amount given the way hospitals get $13,000 compensation for a Covid death but only $3,400 for a pneumonia death, and with a ventilator it’s over $40G’s and have been encouraged to make Covid19 the cause of death with or without confirming tests).

So they don’t want people to realise that it’s no real threat. I cannot see any other simple explanation that fits most of the fact patterns, including those featuring Governors stepping in to make its use more or less illegal even though it has clearly shown such success. There’s only so many times ‘incompetence’ fits the bill. A few times, okay, but as a general rule? I don’t buy it.

As far as I’m concerned, cv19 is a political & warfare tool, not a medical crisis. For us ordinary folk, it’s going to end up being a test determining how far gone we are politically & socially. Can we handle this properly by going back to normal soon (less & less likely, seemingly), i.e. will sanity prevail and this entire bogus fiasco be put to bed already? Or is this going to continue and worsen until some sort of feel-good totalitarian nightmare is finally made manifest? Time will tell, but many key elements will play out in real-time in the next few months.

A more exciting time for the Reality TV Republic of the United States of America series has rarely been seen. Ratings are through the roof – especially since nearly everyone worldwide is under house arrest with nothing better to do than keep tuning into the next daily instalments, coming thick and fast hour after hour instead of the old diet of thirty minutes a week on a Sunday. How times have changed…

(from the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons to Arizona Governor who has forbidden HCQ use pending peer-reviewed evidence that it works. So they have given him some.)

MATHGAME
MATHGAME
3 years ago
Reply to  BaronAsh

The only thing I disagree strongly with is your hyperbolic assertion”There is NO threat to the population from coronavirus”. If you wanted to explain what you see as “the fact patterns” as “exaggerating the threat” (though far less than your own exaggeration!) or something like that you’d be more believable.

There are tens of thousands of people in the US who would read your statement, know you were lying just to “amplify”your opinion, because they’ve had family member(s) or friend(s) killed by the disease, and ignore everything you had to say.

And I am one of them.

BaronAsh
BaronAsh
3 years ago
Reply to  MATHGAME

I stand by what I wrote: given that HCQ+ has a 90%+ success rate, there is no threat to the overall population justifying the draconian response we have seen thus far. Far more people die all the time from pneumonia, smoking, car crashes and all the rest of it IF IF IF the govt had gone ahead and used the 10,000,000+ donated HCQ doses, or the 30 million ordered from Bayer shortly thereafter. Instead, we have been playing politics with peoples’ lives.

So don’t blame me. Blame the Administrative State, the media, Trump (for being so weak and ineffective in this regard). Or you can take issue with the peer-reviewed results about the HCQ protocols. If you believe they are false, fine. But if they are no false, then a HUGE fraud has been and still is being perpetrated.

Uncomfortable truth. But many have been saying that they want to follow the facts and the data. The facts and the data show clearly that coronavirus is not a threat – unless we refuse to follow facts and the data. Which thus far the Corona Virus Task Force and the US President and most Governors and Doctors have refused to do.

But don’t worry overmuch: because well over 90% of the CV deaths were from people with terminal conditions anyway. As you will doubtless find out from the family members of those who have passed away recently.

MATHGAME
MATHGAME
3 years ago
Reply to  BaronAsh

RE: “because well over 90% of the CV deaths were from people with terminal conditions anyway.”

Wrong … because the largest percentage of the CV deaths were from people with co-morbidities anyway. Co-morbidities are not necessarily “terminal conditions” unless you count the universal “terminal condition” of being alive as a co-morbidity.

And once again, as before, when you add all the explanatory / clarifying / qualifying (IFs) comments to your original statement that “There is NO threat to the population from coronavirus” that’s fine, and IF all of your IFs end up falling the way you think (not know) they do then I too would agree that “a HUGE fraud has been and still is being perpetrated.”

But it’s become plain that you like to argue in “absolute” declarations first, and then only add all those explanatory / clarifying / qualifying (IFs) comments if challenged on the “absolute” declarations.

I find that to be “playing political games” at its worst, because one of the simplest facts in this entire situation was stated by you previously i.e. “That said, there is no real way of arguing against what you say: it’s unknown and unknowable.”

And while we are learning a little bit more every day, my reply still applies “It renders the rest of your opinions equivalent to any other opinions.”

numike
numike
3 years ago

Nobody Knows What Is Going On link to markmanson.net

marg54
marg54
3 years ago
Reply to  numike

Brilliant read numike, thanks for posting

DBG8489
DBG8489
3 years ago
Reply to  numike

It was a very good read.

The reality is that no one – not these two doctors, not Fauci, not Birx, not Trump, not Cuomo, not Martenson, not Mish, not me, not you, not ANYONE knows enough about either the virus or the economy to be making forced decisions for everyone else.

Every decision forced on society is going to benefit some at the expense of others. Each decision will create something and destroy something. Each decision will kill some and allow others to live.

Our elected representatives, their appointed bureaucrats, the media, and all the virtue-signaling celebrities and companies out there are not gods, they are humans. They are not imbued or anointed with some special power to foresee the future or evaluate the consequences of their decisions any more than any other individual.

Because of this one very simple reality, the best thing EVERYONE can do is get out of the way and let people figure it out for themselves.

Stuki
Stuki
3 years ago
Reply to  DBG8489

“Because of this one very simple reality, the best thing EVERYONE can do is get out of the way and let people figure it out for themselves.”

That WILL work. Or, at least, I’ll be very surprised if it won’t. The Taliban will likely demonstrate it fairly well.

Thing is, you have to mean it. For real.

As in, when the share of people toting around hairtriggered deadly weapons are large enough in the general population, it is perfectly rational to figure out that someone approaching you, or yuor children, or townsmen, may be carrying a suitcase nuke, or a bomb, or a deadly bioweapon. Whether they themselves are explicitly aware of it, isn’t really relevant to calculating the risk they pose.

In which case, figuring out that enforcing social distancing by effective range of your AK, which I’m pretty sure will work perfectly well for The Taliban, cannot somehow be treated as one of the arbitrary “things are diiiiferent…” ‘s that progressives are so fond of.

In the, limit case free, state of nature, men have the right to protect themselves with deadly force. No different from bears. And just as Mama Griz isn’t doing anything wrong by slapping you around a bit to protect her cubs, just because you weren’t really intending to harm them, neither are people doing anything wrong by responding to a mere statistical threat.

In order to sign away the option of lethal force defense, the one they sign it away to, does have some responsibility to reduce the risks which would normally justify exercising it. Otherwise, social distancing by AK, is back to being perfectly A-OK.

DBG8489
DBG8489
3 years ago
Reply to  Stuki

Yes but what does any of that have to do with letting people decide the amount of precautions they personally need to take WRT the virus?

Which is what I thought we were discussing…

Stuki
Stuki
3 years ago
Reply to  DBG8489

One such precaution which people may decide to take, is to make sure noone who just may be infected, gets within effective range of their AK….

If you want to be justified in preventing them from taking that particular precaution, you must first prevent situations from arising, which would compel them to take such a precaution in the first place.

Bohm-Bawerk
Bohm-Bawerk
3 years ago
Reply to  numike

entertaining read

Anda
Anda
3 years ago

Also of interest are the narratives on contact tracing coming out, for example

“In a decentralized system you have the simple problem that you would broadcast the anonymous IDs of infected people to everybody — so some countries’ health legislation will absolutely forbid that. Even though you have a cryptographic method, you’re broadcasting the IDs to all over the place — that’s the only way your local phone can find out have I been in contact or no,” Boos went on.”

So anonymous IDs are not anonymous really (who would have thought) plus it is tabbed on health legislation, not national policy, but

tells a different story of how countries define their claims on public data.

Which all looks like classic mission creep to me.

WildBull
WildBull
3 years ago
Reply to  Anda

It is the perfect excuse for government to track everybody all the time. No surprise there. Sweden has it right.

Stuki
Stuki
3 years ago
Reply to  Anda

When A and B meet in the middle of an empty dessert, and B’s phone goes off alerting he is close to a contagion risk….. It’s kind of hard to anonymize that…

Due to the short distance covid is supposed to be a transmission risk over, a huge share of alerts will be trivially deanonymized this way.

While that may be a low blow, you also have to store interaction history of everyone. Not just known carriers. Since to do much good, once one person tests positive, you want to flag everyone he has been in close contact with (with an extended definition of “close” if you want to collect statistics about how contagion is affected by contact distance…), in order to alert people about those too. Ideally with as much context (how many hops from someone confirmed etc….) as you can obtain.

As a rule, once your flesh identity can be linked to your online identity, no matter how “encrypted” your online identity may be, anonymity is out the window. It’s the reason why it’s a pain to get the bitcoin you paid, or collected, in exchange for a hit on the US President, out anonymously…

And since, wrt covid, it is your flesh identity which is contagious, not your digital one, meaningful anonymity is a bit of a conundrum…..

Anda
Anda
3 years ago
Reply to  Stuki

If you read one system they devised, an app constantly monitors bluetooth, and anyone within range creates a transaction of IDs registered on the app. Both IDs are an anonymous random code. If a person is found to have the virus, they allow their anonymous code to be pasted online, and the app of the other user cross checks codes posted to see if it has interacted (been close) , and then tells that user they have been in contact. Information of time and date might or might not be permitted. As is known, application install data can be linked to a device and owner by its supplier, in theory that would not be allowed, and the app would be completely stand alone.

So there you have an anonymous system, more or less.

The alternative is that the contact data is uploaded to a centralised account, and that then contacts the user via their application. That means all contacts are registered centrally, so in theory that allows an authority to view all of them, and if they have access to any identifier ( for example via app install, or even setting a false bluetooth receptor that registers every person going by along with phones active or a photo etc.) then they are able to monitor a persons social interactions in detail. It also means that if they want to inform a person of contact, that person will have to take their word for it, because they can falsify a contact. If the person wanted proof, then you are right back at providing the true identity of the infected person crossed, so that you can personally potentially verify if true.

So that is the basic difference between central registry or private.

In reality any if these systems will not work well when there are many infected, because you imagine how many people will cross an infected person in the time till symptoms show, you imagine that outside of bluetooth or any other way, that just one infected person walks along a subway or into a shop where a thousand others go in the next few hours, you just cannot track everyone this way, too many matches. It will help as an aid in low number of infected scenario, at best.

Stuki
Stuki
3 years ago
Reply to  Anda

I hear you. You can try to make things a bit harder to deanonymize, by delaying alerts so that the pool of people the average guy has interacted with between each alert, gets larger. It’s effectively how some newer coins attempt to achieve better anonymity than Bitcoin. But the closer to real time you want to get, the smaller the pool gets. Hence the less effective anonymity you have, and the fewer interactions an attacker needs to be able to monitor you being involved in, before deanonymizing you.

Wrt a contagious disease, You really would want to be alerted right “before” being accosted by someone carrying the bioweapon/virus. So you can duck away and/or pull the pin on a disinfectant fogging grenade. But anywhere outside a Tokyo train, alerts that granular in time and space, will result in the “offender” being deanonymized almost completely, every time.

wootendw
wootendw
3 years ago

Covid is only more dangerous than the flu because it is new and no one had any immunity to it until recently. If the flu had just popped up out of nowhere today, it would have been just as deadly and probably as contagious. If the country is re-opened now, the most ‘hurt’ people will be those who advocated shutting it down.

The US foreign policy establishment is using covid as part of it’s “tilt to China” – a new Cold War to keep military sales going. The Hong Kong demonstrators, many paid by the National Endowment for Democracy – a front for the IC – were also part of that.

Expat
Expat
3 years ago
Reply to  wootendw

I strongly suggest that either you do some research into the flu or you go lick someone with Covid. Why not both?

CA2020
CA2020
3 years ago
Reply to  wootendw

Covidiot

Gman007
Gman007
3 years ago
Reply to  wootendw

Like a Monsanto salesman chugging Roundup…

wootendw
wootendw
3 years ago
Reply to  wootendw

@Expat @CA2020 @Gman007

Deadly or not, this virus will not last long. It’ll be gone within a couple of years. If not, or in the mean time, I want IMMUNITY.

Gman007
Gman007
3 years ago
Reply to  wootendw

I hope you are correct! I am very interested in learning more about your basis for that conclusion!

From all of my studies it appears to be a weaponized SARS corona virus (attached spike proteins to provide attachment to ACE-2 receptors) with an HIV component and use of nano technology to employ air flotation (17 hrs or more). It also mutates readily. I have no idea where the end point will be…

Again very interested in the basis for your conclusions should you like to share more…

Anda
Anda
3 years ago

The Spanish government just put forward its re-opening schedule, there are fun videos on how to walk a child out also :/ …. anyway, they said eight weeks yesterday till the “new normal” is reached, like before…but just not quite like before… indefinitely…today they are saying no time frame…businesses say the new plan is untenable… there is some kind of undeclared synchronisation going on at EU level also… and figures for Spain are so chaotic and manipulable, and trust in authority so low, that it comes across as a power play…though infections seem to be increasing from minor previous restriction lifting… anyway the schedule is described here, Mathew Bennett has a critical look at Spanish figures in other posts. Posts 19. to 35. in the below thread describe the schedule

Bohm-Bawerk
Bohm-Bawerk
3 years ago
Reply to  Anda

Anda, I appreciate your Spanish perspective on the topics, since we don’t get all the European news here, unless you really search deeply for it.
Thanks

Anda
Anda
3 years ago
Reply to  Bohm-Bawerk

Welcome. It’s hard to get a feel for what is going on in different countries now, even ones that am familiar with, some have just gone dark . I’m in Portugal at the moment though very familiar with Spain, and there is a stark difference between approaches. Here emergency law is lifted early next month, people seem to be more aware of what is needed without too much imposition or any exaggeration, there will just be gradual relaxation of any restrictions also but in a more informal manner – they aren’t so busy telling everyone what to do, instead the measures seem broader and quietly suggest the level of caution expected from the public, with whatever firm measures that are written in being respected also. In Spain it is like they don’t trust the population often. People everywhere are concerned about the economy now, Spain is more affected because it runs at higher tension overall, whereas for Portugal tourism is more of an extra that is appreciated. For Spain I have to wonder if the level of control is being kept high because even if they slack off basically many businesses will sit empty anyway, and at that point there would be trouble. So by controlling they have a position to sell compensation. Either way it is trouble, because many Spanish don’t like being micro-managed.

Anda
Anda
3 years ago
Reply to  Bohm-Bawerk

This is for Portugal

basically some schooling reopens and small businesses first (soon) , then bigger shops and malls, then places of larger gathering including public. Masks are asked for for now, distancing will be in place for shops for a while. It’s quite straightforward and only subject to a rise in cases. It relies more on public common sense, and people generally don’t want to catch or transmit the virus, there is a feeling of understanding. So no large patrolling is going on, even now people are more relaxed and there is more activity. So how people feel and how government decides fit together quite well. Wouldn’t work in some countries I suppose , because people and society being different.

Herkie
Herkie
3 years ago

These doctors also are running walk in urgent care clinics, specifically these are designed for people that mostly do not have any alternative care. They are not used by the vast majority of insured patients that have continuity of care.

More specifically they are not gerontologists and as we know the older you are the more likely you will die from Covid once infected.

This really is just another variation on “go ahead and open the economy because it is only useless old people dying anyway.” As a useless old person I take some umbridge with the attitude that people are disposable as long as they are old. I intend to live every last minute of life I can and if there are some out there that do not value that life then I suggest they use a razor on their own wrists right now, after all there is nothing special about them that makes their own lives more valuable than mine.

Blurtman
Blurtman
3 years ago
Reply to  Herkie

No one is saying old people are disposable, just that old people with comorbidities should be locked down, not every else.

Isaiah217
Isaiah217
3 years ago
Reply to  Herkie

“I suggest they use a razor on their own wrists”. Really? The stupidity of that statement is astounding. Shows that you care about no one but yourself.

Herkie
Herkie
3 years ago
Reply to  Isaiah217

You are certainly entitled to any ignorant opinion you like. It is the people who think that the economy should be opened because it is only old people dying that have zero respect for life and when they do get older they are going to find out that every human day lived is a right and not a privilege that they get to pass judgement upon.

Of course I would not expect a hostile bible thumper to either understand or agree. But then anyone who thinks religion is the answer is not worth my time to argue with in the first place.

Isaiah217
Isaiah217
3 years ago
Reply to  Herkie

Sadly you are confused, you say I’m not worth arguing with after arguing with me. There’s nothing to understand or agree with. Explain to me how suggesting that people cut their wrists is “respect for life” just because you disagree with them.

Bcalderone
Bcalderone
3 years ago
Reply to  Herkie

Herkie, forget the bible thumper. The last sentence of your post was brilliant, keep fighting the good fight!!

Ken Kam
Ken Kam
3 years ago
Reply to  Herkie

More power to you Herkie, hope you live a long and healthy life. But I wish the same for everyone, not just you, not just older people. Why should the lockdown be forced on EVERYONE? Let each one take responsibility for their life. If anyone thinks it is risky to go to the supermarket, or walk in the street, or the beach, or to the office, take precautions. But don’t tell the whole neighbourhood to stay locked in just because you want the freedom to go walk in the park despite the health risks to you at your age.

njbr
njbr
3 years ago

Two things to remember

Doctors can be motivated by money and politics

Doctors can be dumb-asses, too

Isaiah217
Isaiah217
3 years ago
Reply to  njbr

That pretty much sums up everyone in this world.

Stuki
Stuki
3 years ago
Reply to  njbr

“Doctors can be dumb-asses, too”

Just like Airplane Engineers can build planes which fall out of the sky…

We’re a financialized country now. The idiots are in charge. Of everything. Including bestowing erstwhile esteemed degrees.

Gman007
Gman007
3 years ago
Reply to  Stuki

If the idiots are in charge…then idiots voted them in. If not now in the day and age of controlled voting systems (Dominion voting systems – see the dozen or so documentaries)….then certainly in the times leading up to this time.

Roosevelt could have put an end to it…or slowed it down if he simply would have hanged Prescott Bush back in the day (Wallstreet business plot, Union bank/Nazi’s, etc etc etc). Certainly would have changed JFK’s outcome as well as the last 50+ years of politics…

Or taking a stand to the Jekyll Island group in 1913….or or or or….

Blurtman
Blurtman
3 years ago

If you run the NYC antibody test results by NYC age demographics, you get extraordinarily high fatality rates for the elderly population with comorbidities, around 8% for over 75 age group, 3.4% for 65-74, and it keeps dropping. But for the 18-44 population, the fatality rate is less that 0.1%. And if you look at the fatality rates in all age groups without comorbidities, the fatality rates are very low. So clearly older folks with comorbidities should be protected, but the economy should not be shut down, nor the freedom of everyone restricted.

rum_runner
rum_runner
3 years ago
Reply to  Blurtman

That’s the bottom line right there. Protect the vulnerable populations but otherwise reopen the economy. Letting the young cohort contract the virus also rapidly advances us towards herd immunity.

njbr
njbr
3 years ago
Reply to  Blurtman

87,000,000 in the age 18-44 group in the US

If the rate is the .1% you quote, that is 87,000 deaths.

Shrug.

Just so long as it isn’t you, it’s great, right?

Blurtman
Blurtman
3 years ago
Reply to  njbr

Sorry I was not clearer. The 0.07% fatality rate in the 18-44 age group is primarily amongst those with comorbidities. For those without, the risk of death is much, much less. But if you were honest, you would propose the same number of deaths with the flu’s 0.1% fatality rate. Obviously we aren’t seeing those numbers, because fatalities rates are skewed by the rates of death in the elderly with comorbidites, as I the attempted to illustrate.

Ken Kam
Ken Kam
3 years ago
Reply to  njbr

How much does the rest of society have to pay to save these lives? Where do you draw the line? Is 10,000 deaths too much? 100 deaths? Going by your answer, you will not accept any deaths due to coronavirus, because ‘it could be you’! What about the millions of lives thrown into misery for years to come and possible thousands of deaths caused by the economic impact of the lockdown of healthy people? You don’t care about that? Even if these deaths are not visible now, the suffering is real.

njbr
njbr
3 years ago
Reply to  Blurtman

Not to mention the 870,000 or more acute hospitalizations in that age group that would accompany that rate of death.

Party on, Garth!

dguillor
dguillor
3 years ago
Reply to  Blurtman

You left out the 45-64 cohort. Do they not count? These are people in their prime earning years and very important to the well being of families. Their rate is about ten times that of the 18-44 group.

Blurtman
Blurtman
3 years ago
Reply to  dguillor

But again, primarily with folks with comorbidities. Fatality rate for those w/o is very low. Even so, I would imagine based upon older age group data, that fatality rates in the 45-64 age group is skewed by the over 60 folks. Even with the last swine flu epidemic, obesity greatly raised the morbidity and mortality rates. If you lack a comorbidity, in any age group, fatality rates are very very low.

Blurtman
Blurtman
3 years ago
Reply to  Blurtman

I get 0.8% for 45-64, but most with comorbidities.

Noise vs Information
Noise vs Information
3 years ago
Reply to  Blurtman

What is the incidence of comorbidities among the 45-64 cohort? I understand that high blood pressure, diabetes (any kind), minor heart and lung ailments, and a number of other health conditions qualify as comorbidities. At some point, if the incidence of comorbidities is significant enough, the comorbidity qualification becomes less significant. Just trying to understand the numbers and risks better.

NewUlm
NewUlm
3 years ago

The data from NY shows that over 95% of cases had co-morbidities. At @Blurtman is right, if you are healthy it’s LESS lethal than the flu.

But we have a hard time telling folks in the US, to eat less, smoke less, drink less and get in shape – can’t trigger anyone.

Schaap60
Schaap60
3 years ago
Reply to  NewUlm

Assuming Blurtman’s numbers are correct, you’re using them to compare the overall flu death rate of .1% to the Covid death rate of young healthy people. The Covid death rate of young healthy people is very low, but still much higher than the flu death rate for young healthy people.

Blurtman
Blurtman
3 years ago
Reply to  Schaap60

Again, the flu 0.1 fatality rate is not for all age groups. It is higher for older folks than for healthy young folks, just like COVID-19. But the flu is more lethal for kids than COVID-19. The 0.1 fatality rate is a gross average. You need the fatality rate by age group for the flu to make a comparison.

Noise vs Information
Noise vs Information
3 years ago
Reply to  NewUlm

Thank you, but my question was what percentage of each age cohort already suffers from comorbidities? If 75% of the 45-64 age cohort have comorbitities, then the vast majority of these folks will have a significant fatality rate (compared to the ordinary flu) if they get COVID-19. If high blood pressure, any form of diabetes, chronic – but modest – lung, heart or vascular disease or dysfunction, counts as co-morbidities among 45-64 years olds, then the risk to these folks is pretty significant. I’m in excellent shape, exercise regularly, and maintain a healthy diet. But I also had a one-off pulmonary embolism two years ago and am on for Coumadin for life. Am I “healthy” or do I count as having a co-morbidity? I just feel folks are throwing a lot of statistics around without examining them close enough or which rely on data that is uncertain or wrong.

Blurtman
Blurtman
3 years ago

Look at the obesity rate for black women. Trump’s fault, once again.

Expat
Expat
3 years ago
Reply to  Blurtman

Would you like to volunteer all your friends and family for a lab experiment?
You are also spouting this…um….opinion after five months of research by real experts as well as a giant, real-world experiment. But we still don’t have accurate, full data on mortality.
You are welcome to blather on about subjects that don’t affect others (kill them). that is your right. So if you want to say that Jesus is the saviour or that ham is delicious, that is your constitutional right. But it is not your right to make up bullshit about a major, deadly pandemic. Nope. it’s not. So stop whinging and frothing at the mouth.

CA2020
CA2020
3 years ago
Reply to  Blurtman

So tell us how you do that? Covidiot!

Lance Manly
Lance Manly
3 years ago

Seems like South Korea, New Zealand, and Australia have pretty good at setting themselves up to return to a least a new normal. Looks like it took a serious approach to testing and contact tracing throughout the society is key. Unfortunately “serious approach by the administration” would appear to be an oxymoron.

psalm876
psalm876
3 years ago
Reply to  Lance Manly

“Looks like it took a serious approach to testing and contact tracing throughout the society is key.”

And extensive use of masks in public ought to be noted.

Hong Kong has a similar strategy and experience. They also reaped the benefit of a short flu season, bringing flu cases to zero at the earliest date ever.

GeorgeWP
GeorgeWP
3 years ago
Reply to  Lance Manly

+VietNam. Going to be a interesting few years for Oz and NZ. Perhaps we will have a travel agreement with VN and SKorea and a few other places as well. Otherwise it will be 2 weeks in isolation on return, not an incentive for outbound travel. And can’t see many inbound from pox ridden places being enticed on a 4 week visit with 2 weeks in a hotel room for starters. Perhaps we can see some innovation by providing hermetically sealed planes and entry points, buses and hotels that domestic travelers don’t access.

On the other hand US and Europe will be able to travel freely amongst themselves as it will be endemic, so no point with restrictions.

marg54
marg54
3 years ago
Reply to  GeorgeWP

Reply to GeorgeWP Forget Vietnam, they are under reporting and lack testing. There is talk of people from Oz and New Zealand being able to travel freely between each country. But all other countries will be out.

Stuki
Stuki
3 years ago
Reply to  GeorgeWP

“Perhaps we will have a travel agreement with VN …”

China Beach the new Bali…. An Aussie bar, built with home flipping cash, and credit, on every corner…. 🙂

Scooot
Scooot
3 years ago

Thanks for this Mish.

UKMark
UKMark
3 years ago

I fear these two jokers will end up in the same way as Andrew Wakefield, the widely discredited doctor who stirred up a frenzy over the MMR vaccine with his BS “research” about autism. I’m sure a lot of people want to believe the conclusions, but when it becomes clear that their message is utter bollocks and ends up costing lives then the backlash will likely be violent.

Meanwhile what is becoming clear that different countries are reporting death numbers in very different ways. Belgium (a small, densely packed country in Europe) is at pains to report in a timely manner any death which is even suspected of being COVID related as a COVID stat (source: Bloomberg). The UK’s stats are still playing catch-up, with official numbers only representing hospital deaths, and numbers from home/care-homes only now beginning to become clear (and not yet represented in the totals). Other countries are clearly massively under-reporting numbers as COVID stats are well below “excess death” stats from general mortalities (source FT). In yet more countries (e.g. Germany) there are as yet no general mortality figures to cross check against, and in yet others (e.g. China) the numbers are clearly hogwash, being perhaps only 1/20th – 1/100th of reality. Frankly, any reasonably densely populated country with a temperate climate that is not yet seeing deaths in the 500+ per 1M area is either doing an amazing job (a minority), is lying (a few) or still struggling to get its stats in order (many). I doubt that when the dust settles we will see a mortality rate much under 1.5% (for typical demographics with a realistic proportion of older and BAME cohorts).

The bottom line is that it’s probably going to take many weeks yet before numbers become really clear, and in that information vacuum I doubt we’ve seen the last of the dubious claims from “scientists” wanting their 10 minutes of fame.

UKMark
UKMark
3 years ago
Reply to  UKMark

In case people are interested, the FT article (free to view) which discusses the under-reporting of COVID deaths is available here –

The Bloomberg article which discusses how Belgium is trying to present realistic numbers is here –

(If this link isn’t working for you just do a search for “Why the World’s Highest Virus Death Rate Is in Europe’s Capital”)

marg54
marg54
3 years ago
Reply to  UKMark

excellent response. I am surprised not more is written about the varying ways different countries report Covid-19 cases. In particular Indonesia and Bali are playing down numbers hoping to open up to tourism.

randocalrissian
randocalrissian
3 years ago
Reply to  UKMark

It seems that, at least in the US, people are too inclined to throw political rocks at one another to bother with a deep dive into the science. This is a tendency for which we will all pay an unquantifiable price. I am glad we have some sane people putting good info out there like Mish, who seems to have a history of leaning right, isn’t afraid to lean away from a right president, and is trying to cut through the bull and find truth. Keep up the good work.

marg54
marg54
3 years ago
Reply to  UKMark

Is there any study or research being done on the true number of deaths from Covid-19 based on rise in death rates compared to similar periods in past years? I see it is available for some countries but worldwide would be interesting.

UKMark
UKMark
3 years ago
Reply to  marg54

The increase in deaths above past averages is called “excess deaths” and is the basis of that FT study. The problem is that you need historical numbers (available for most countries) and the current figures to compare against them. It takes a while to produce the current figures and different countries are quicker at it than others. Here in the UK we are publishing death stats with about a 10 day lag. In other countries (e.g. Germany) it apparently takes months to produce such data.

Tengen
Tengen
3 years ago

I agree with Martenson, but the nice thing about this is that we will have actual feedback after reopening. We’ll see if more people get sick and how other countries fare around the world.

This may not sound like much, but after 12 years of suspended animation where the Fed papered over everything, real world feedback is refreshing!

Carl_R
Carl_R
3 years ago
Reply to  Tengen

Well, yes and no. We will see what happens, but that will only be a partial answer. The virus may well spread much faster in cold dry air than it does in the summer, so I’m thinking that reopening now will be relatively safe. Cases will continue to grow, but at a manageable rate. In October to March, will it be the same?

Gman007
Gman007
3 years ago
Reply to  Carl_R

Its an experiment…plain and simple.

anoop
anoop
3 years ago

Quatloo
Quatloo
3 years ago
Reply to  anoop

That really clears things up, thanks

palmer808
palmer808
3 years ago

😜

palmer808
palmer808
3 years ago

KEEP IT STUPID SIMPLE

For the youngins who dare read this tripe…

palmer808
palmer808
3 years ago

Really, in this day and age?!
Humans on the moon?!
And yet….
We lack the ability to produce a forced air haz-mat suit for every child, woman, man, walking the earth?!
I’m calling holy giant B.S.!
we’re all walking around in haz-mat suits like it’s the new normal…
KISS
REMEMBER?!

Stuki
Stuki
3 years ago
Reply to  palmer808

We also lack the ability to walk on the moon.

We sit on the couch and do nothing of value, while collecting welfare The Fed has stolen from others on our behalf, now. That’s what, and that is all, 50 years of completely unconstrained financialization has rendered us competent enough to do.

Gman007
Gman007
3 years ago
Reply to  palmer808

Amen Stuki!

Plenty of evidence we never walked on the moon to begin with…but that’s another topic for another day…

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