The GDPNow model forecast for the fourth quarter took a dive today to 0.3% from 1.0% a week ago. Similarly, the Nowcast model fell to 0.4% from 0.7%.
Pat Higgins at GDPow explains:
“The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 0.3 percent on November 15, down from 1.0 percent on November 8. After this morning’s retail trade releases from the U.S. Census Bureau, and this morning’s industrial production report from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.1 percent and -2.3 percent, respectively, to 1.7 percent and -4.4 percent, respectively.”
Real gross private domestic development is now clocking at -4.4%.
Wow.
Recession Warnings
A bit ago I noted Industrial Production Dives and It’s Not All Strike Related.
Trucking provide another recession warning: Freight Volumes Negative YoY for 11th Straight Month
Donald Broughton, founder of Broughton Capital and author the Cass Freight Index says the index signals contraction, possibly by the end of the year. That’s just one one month away.
Strike Resolved
The GM strike is resolved. We will soon find out how much strike-related damage there was, but the risk is over-estimating the rebound going forward.
The trade deal with China is still unresolved.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
The Donald is not going to allow any bad news like this to be released. Appointees heading the Labor, Commerce and Treasury departments (and the Federal Reserve) know what their marching orders are: massage, massage, massage. Make those numbers look good, no matter what. The narrative of greatness and amazingness must continue. You watch.
Economy that’s dieing (dead)on the vines for a decade,kept (barely)resuscitated by zero rates and around the clock money printing to buy (prop up)well ….everything….while the bills pile up faster than snow on Mt Washington,not lookin good!
More MMT? what’s the definition of insanity??
Fake news report! Trade war is good and easy to win!
its prediction time! link to nymag.com
1% GDP is coming. The final GDP numbers have been higher than the GDP estimates of the Atlanta Fed. We will get a rate cut in late December or January.
I’m not worried … In Powell I trust (cough, cough)
Jerome Wednesday:
Looking ahead, my colleagues and I see a sustained expansion of economic activity, a strong labor market, and inflation near our symmetric 2 percent objective as most likely.
Stock market is up, gold and bonds down. Go figure.
Of course the stock market is up a half percent on this news. Buy! Buy! Buy!
Kudlow did just that!
Kudlow
My “tell” for when things about to get VERY interesting.
Last go round (2008) LK:
Thru summer denying recession —> Labor Dayish capitulating —> few weeks later Pounding The Desk for TARP.
When he INEVITABLY pulls a 180 … it will be when things can’t be covered up any longer … and, OF COURSE, calling for a taxpayer bailout for someone(s).
The White House thought process: Hmmm, we need some positive news out there. I know… Let’s float the idea that we’re really close on a trade deal with China again! It’s only been a couple of weeks since we said that the last time (I’m sure nobody remembers that anyway)…