The GDPNow forecast for third-quarter GDP fell to 1.8% today on weak economic reports.

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GDP Estimates

Oxford Estimate

Real Final Sales

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The important number is "Real Final Sales".

That's the bottom line estimate for the economy. The rest is inventory adjustment which nets to zero over time.

The GDPNow estimate of Real Final Sales fell to 1.6% today, a new low for the series. It's near, and possibly below the economic stall point.

Also, please see my report today: Manufacturing ISM Worst Since 2009 on Severe Contraction of Export Orders.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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