GDPNow issued an update today but it’s missing a lot of key inputs.
GDPNow Current Estimates
- GDP: 3.8 Percent
- Real Final Sales: 3.4 Percent
- Real Final Domestic Sales: 2.7 Percent
- Real Final Private Domestic Sales: 2.9 Percent
GDPNow has had a hot hand. But be warned, those estimates are missing many key economic reports.
Six Delayed Reports
- Oct 1: Construction Spending
- Oct 2: Motor Vehicle Sales
- Oct 2: Jobless Claims
- Oct 2: Factory Orders
- Oct 3: Employment Situation (Nonfarm Payrolls Household and Establishment surveys)
- October 7: International Trade in Goods and Services
The BEA’s scheduled GDP release date is Thursday, October 30, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET.
I believe shutdown will be over by then, but perhaps not. And the longer the delay, the more likely inputs to the GDP report will be suspect and subject to big revisions.
Notice from GDPNow
Today the Atlanta Fed issued this GDPNow Notice.
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.8 percent on October 7, unchanged from October 1 after rounding. Due to the government shutdown, today’s GDPNow update is based only on the Nonmanufacturing ISM Report on Business released on October 3 by the Institute for Supply Management. After that release, the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 4.2 percent to 4.0 percent.
Due to the government shutdown, the GDPNow update scheduled for Thursday, October 9, will be deferred until a new monthly data release is available for the model.
My GDPNow Comments
This GDPNow update included ISM but is missing the 6 reports I highlighted. It makes no sense for GDPNow to update estimates with so many missing reports, thus the deferment.
What’s striking about the graph is the discrepancy between GDPNow and the Blue Chip consensus.
Blue Chip is an expensive report and GDPNow was authorized to chart that on a delay.
My eyeball estimate is the gap between GDPNow and Blue Chip was ~1.8 percentage points on ~September 8.
That’s a big gap.
Today’s International Trade in Goods and Services report (Missing in Action) was potentially huge. What was the trade deficit?
The other big missing report was nonfarm payrolls.
Those two reports could have canceled each other, been irrelevant, or produced a big swing.
Numbers to Watch
The headline number, GDP, was never the best number to watch. But it is always the most hyped.
The difference between GDP and real final sales is inventory adjustment which nets to zero over time.
But tariffs have hugely distorted the import- and export-based numbers.
The estimates to watch now, if we had numbers, are final domestic sales and private final domestic sales.
The latest private final sales estimate is 2.9 percent, but that may have changed in a big way if we had the International Trade in Goods and Services report due today.
Meanwhile, add GDPNow to the list of government shutdown economic report casualties.
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October 7, 2025: How Screwed Up Are BLS Real and Nominal Median Earnings?
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Pentagon Revises Press Rules
The subject of 2 recent posts
https://x.com/USRoute41/status/1975612144126509065
Suspect this is more about the logistics of having to read all articles before publishing rather than sucumbing to pressure.
My estimate is the report delay will be two weeks.
As in the two week contractor estimates in the film the ‘Money Pit.’
A bit of levity for a moribund economy.
GDP is being bolstered by an increase in the transaction’s velocity of money, typical after a surge in the money stock growth. 1st qtr. of 2026 looks nasty.
– Six Delayed Reports: > Could they come up with a more important list? Not so sure.
Oct 1: Construction Spending > Spending = Buyers, while Non-Spending = No Buyers. That’s where we are at with Construction imo.
Oct 2: Motor Vehicle Sales > They tanked with EV’s and look to stay down for quite sometime now. Unlike most items, New Motor Vehicles don’t NEED TO BE replaced every few years. So they won’t be imo.
Oct 2: Jobless Claims > Are they even accurate enough to be missed?
Oct 2: Factory Orders > A Key Report imo, that makes me think they must be down big time, and they don’t want this one seen just yet (Tariffs causing issues perhaps?).
Oct 3: Employment Situation (Nonfarm Payrolls Household and Establishment surveys) > > Are they even accurate enough to be missed?
October 7: International Trade in Goods and Services > Got Darts? Might need them for this one…
– The BEA’s scheduled GDP release date is Thursday, October 30, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET. > Should be interesting.
– I believe shutdown will be over by then, but perhaps not. And the longer the delay, the more likely inputs to the GDP report will be suspect and subject to big revisions. > I would have to agree, as the Dems are going to get crushed with the stance they took imo. They are already circling the wagons, but not too much strength in this move. They will have to cave or take a drastic hit that may stick with them like glue, if they are not careful imo.
This thing is a cluster.
There is no data. The Fed will not cut rates
The stats dont even matter. The bottom is falling out.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/ar-AA1O1NGc
Is US terminal tariff influenced GDP growth like terminal US equity (and world equity) valuation blow-off growth? Debt ladened, job-wage limited American consumers must still buy needed consumables – even if on credit … Today. at a franchise US grocery store, I ‘saved’ 31 dollars on less than 15 items using 2 and 3 for 1 items bonus sale purchases. I declined an offer of a $5.79 2 for 1 ‘deal’ on a bag of chips that had collapsed in volume to about twice the volume of an old-timer snack pack. Woo Wee.. In 2005 a x/2-2.5x/2x/1.5.x valuation 4-phase fractal pattern of equity/commodity growth and decay was identified. From the 7 April 2025 low to the 7 Oct 2025 46 day high, a 24/58/46/33-35 day :: x/2.5x/2x’/1.5x’ fractal pattern appears operative.
“What’s striking about the graph is the discrepancy between GDPNow and the Blue Chip consensus.”
If my memory serves me correctly, there always seems to be a sizeable difference between the Blue Chip Consensus & GDPNow. Granted, it may be a little more exaggerated in the last couple of quarters, but that’s probably due to discrepancies with how each captures Net Imports which has been highly variable over the last 9 months.
As you’d expect, the next 3-4 months of revisions may look bonkers across, once the shutdown ends.
Bonkers is correct
First importers front-ran tariffs
Then imports collapsed
Now getting back to the new normal (if there is such a thing as normal)
China is still skirting tariffs through other countries but Trump has relaxed things again (on and off) to which China has responded by cutting soybean imports and restricting rare earth exports.
Not sure if government numbers during the shutdown or govt numbers under Trump’s new obeisant stooges beginning in 2026 will be the LEAST accurate of the two.
If it’s up 1500%, there may be reason for suspicion.
Make coal great again….
Navajo bid for 167 million tons of coal mining rights at $187,000–1/10 of a cent per ton
Only bid received
Funny on so many levels
Almost like the pile of broken treaties