The GDPNow estimate as of January 25 is 3.4%.​

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The Federal Reserve Bank of New York Nowcast estimate as of January 18 is 3.9%​

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Econoday Consensus


The Econoday consensus estimate is 2.9%

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2.2% to 3.3% is quite a range. Factor in Nowcast and the range is 2.2% to 3.9%.


I think 3.9% is wildly high and 2.2% considerably low. I will guess slightly higher than the consensus at 3.0%.

Nothing will surprise me much other than the top or bottom estimates coming in.

That said, I estimate any pleasant surprises for the 4th quarter will be undone in the first quarter of 2018.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock​

Final Model Forecasts for First Quarter GDP: GDPNow 2.0%, Nowcast 2.9%

The advance (first) estimate of first-quarter GDP is published tomorrow. The GDPNow final estimate is 2.0%, Nowcast 2.9%

GDP Forecasts Slide on Final Data, GDPNow 3.8%: ZeroHedge 4.4%, Mish 3.4%, More

The BEA provides its first estimate of 2nd-quarter GDP on Friday. Expectations fell due to unexpectedly weak data Thurs.

2nd Quarter GDP Final Estimate Tomorrow: Up or Down from Prior?

The BEA’s third (final) estimate of second-quarter GDP is due Thursday. The Econoday consensus is the BEA will up the reading to 3.1% from 3.0%.

Nowcast GDP Forecast Surges, GDPNow Forecast is Down a Bit

The GDPNow and Nowcast GDP forecasts for the first quarter of 2020 converged quite a bit today.

GDPNow Real Final Sales Forecast Slips to 0.9%

If you thought today's inventory build numbers would add to GDP estimates, you thought wrong.

GDPNow "Real Final Sales" Forecast Remains 1.1%

GDPNow and Nowcast GDP estimates came out today. I believe the GDPNow estimate is closer to the right track.

Fourth-Quarter GDP Final Estimate Hits 2.9%,Tops Consensus

The third estimate of fourth-quarter GDP is 2.9%, up 0.4 percentage points from the second estimate.

GDP Forecasts Dip Again: Forecasts Compared

In the wake of dismal retail sales, first-quarter GDP forecasts by the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model and the FRBNY Nowcast model ticked lower.

4th-Quarter GDP Forecasts Off To Weak Start

GDPNow and Nowcast Forecasts for 4th-quarter GDP are 1% and 0.7% respectively.