The GDPNow estimate as of January 25 is 3.4%.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York Nowcast estimate as of January 18 is 3.9%
The Econoday consensus estimate is 2.9%
2.2% to 3.3% is quite a range. Factor in Nowcast and the range is 2.2% to 3.9%.
I think 3.9% is wildly high and 2.2% considerably low. I will guess slightly higher than the consensus at 3.0%.
Nothing will surprise me much other than the top or bottom estimates coming in.
That said, I estimate any pleasant surprises for the 4th quarter will be undone in the first quarter of 2018.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock