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The GDPNow estimate as of January 25 is 3.4%.​

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The Federal Reserve Bank of New York Nowcast estimate as of January 18 is 3.9%​

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Econoday Consensus

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The Econoday consensus estimate is 2.9%

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2.2% to 3.3% is quite a range. Factor in Nowcast and the range is 2.2% to 3.9%.


I think 3.9% is wildly high and 2.2% considerably low. I will guess slightly higher than the consensus at 3.0%.

Nothing will surprise me much other than the top or bottom estimates coming in.

That said, I estimate any pleasant surprises for the 4th quarter will be undone in the first quarter of 2018.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock​