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by Mish

Meanwhile, the FRBNY Nowcast Model sits at a robust 3.1%. as of March 3.

The spread is just shy of two full percentage points. One or both of these models are seriously wrong.

In five weeks, the GDP Now Model shed 2.2 percentage points in growth estimates.


GDPNow Evolution

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Even if the difference between GDPNow and Nowcast splits down the middle, they will both be about 1 full percentage point off the mark.

However, a Nowcast update comes out tomorrow and I expect it to dip at least a fair amount.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock