by Mish

Meanwhile, the FRBNY Nowcast Model sits at a robust 3.1%. as of March 3.

The spread is just shy of two full percentage points. One or both of these models are seriously wrong.

In five weeks, the GDP Now Model shed 2.2 percentage points in growth estimates.

GDPNow Evolution

Image placeholder title

Even if the difference between GDPNow and Nowcast splits down the middle, they will both be about 1 full percentage point off the mark.

However, a Nowcast update comes out tomorrow and I expect it to dip at least a fair amount.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

FRBNY 4th Quarter GDP Nowcast 1.6% vs. GDPNow 3.1%

In sharp contrast to a GDPNow forecast of 3.1 percent for 4th quarter GDP, the FRBNY Nowcast Model estimates 4th quarter GDP at a mere 1.6 percent.

Dueling GDP Estimates: GDPNow vs. FRBNY Nowcast

Both the Atlanta Fed GDPNow and the New York Fed Nowcast updated their models today. Let’s take a look at where they stand for second-quarter GDP.

Divergence Between GDPNow and FRBNY Nowcast Hits Two Full Percentage Points

Since February 24, a string of bad economic reports drove the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for 1st quarter GDP from 2.5% to 1.2%

1st Quarter GDP Estimates: ZeroHedge, Mish, GDPNow, Nowcast, ISM, Markit

On Friday, April 28, the BEA will release its preliminary estimate for first quarter GDP.

Huge Difference Between GDPNow and Nowcast Models

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow and the New York Fed Nowcast GDP models once again are wildly different.

GDPNow, FRBNY Nowcast Inch Up: Gap Still Two Percent

Te Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model inched up to 1.0% from 0.9% on Friday. Nothing much mattered since a week ago.

Nowcast Leapfrogs GDPNow in 1st Quarter GDP Forecast

The latest first quarter GDP estimate by the New York Fed Nowcast jumped to a new high of 3.1%.

Nowcast 4th Quarter 2016 and 1st Quarter 2017 Forecasts Dip Slightly: Three Hikes in 2017?

The FRBNY Nowcast for 4th quarter GDP dipped slightly today on account of the wholesale inventory report earlier this week.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow +2.8% vs. New York Fed Nowcast +1.2%

Following today’s retail sales alleged blowout, to which treasury yields actually declined, comes a big GDP upgrade by the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model vs. a smaller jump by the New York Fed Nowcast Model.