by Mish

Latest forecast: 2.5 percent — February 27, 2017

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 2.5 percent on February 27, up from 2.4 percent on February 16. The forecast for first-quarter real residential investment growth increased from 7.8 percent to 10.8 percent after the housing data releases last week from the National Association of Realtors and the U.S. Census Bureau.

GDP Comments

In regards to the trade deficit report this morning, Econoday commented: “This report will be bringing down early first-quarter GDP estimates.” A reader also commented on the same thing.

I replied to the reader “I agree but the effect is likely not as big effect as you might think. It takes big numbers just to move things s a couple ticks. Even then, it depends on the model. It may have already been anticipated even if economists did not see it.”

That’s what happened.

Economic Reports and Effects on GDPNow

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Today’s balance of trade report did not move GDPNow even one tick. I have followed these reports for a long time and unless something is really wild in the trade report, the models barely budge.

However, I will take a shot that the New York Fed Nowcast does move one or two ticks to the downside following the report.

Trump Howling

One thing we can expect from today’s reports is for Trump and his economic advisors led by Peter Navarro, to step up the “unfair” trade charges.

Exports look anemic, especially capital goods exports.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

GDPNow 3rd Quarter Estimate Ticks Down to 2.8%: Looking Ahead, What’s in Store for the Forecasts

In the wake of today’s durable goods report and last week’s housing reports the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model for third quarter GDP ticked down 0.1 percentage points to 2.8%.

Nowcast, GDPNow 2nd Quarter Forecasts Narrow Slightly: What’s Ahead?

On Friday, both the Atlanta Fed and New York Fed updated their GDP 2nd quarter forecasts. The FRBNY Nowcast remained at 1.9% while GDPNow dipped to 2.7% narrowing a once gigantic spread to 0.8 percentage points.

GDPNow 1st Quarter Forecast Plunges to 1.3% Following Vehicle Sales and Factory Orders Reports

The GDPNow Model forecast for 1st quarter 2017 GDP plunged 0.5 percentage points to 1.3% following recent economic data.

GDPNow Forecast Slips Slightly Despite Retail Sales Rebound

Despite a rebound in retail Sales the GDPNow forecast slips to 1.9 percent. Real final sales are 0.9 percent.

GDP Forecasts Dip Again: Forecasts Compared

In the wake of dismal retail sales, first-quarter GDP forecasts by the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model and the FRBNY Nowcast model ticked lower.

Nowcast Leapfrogs GDPNow in 1st Quarter GDP Forecast

The latest first quarter GDP estimate by the New York Fed Nowcast jumped to a new high of 3.1%.

Nowcast 4th Quarter 2016 and 1st Quarter 2017 Forecasts Dip Slightly: Three Hikes in 2017?

The FRBNY Nowcast for 4th quarter GDP dipped slightly today on account of the wholesale inventory report earlier this week.

Dueling Forecasts May 12: GDPNow vs Nowcast

I expected the GDPNow forecast today to take another dive today from the last estimate due to generally poor economic reports during the interim period. Instead, the model stayed flat at 3.6%. That means the model expected generally poor reports.

GDPNow Forecast Dips to 0.9%: Divergence with Nowcast Hits 2.3 Percentage Points – Why?

The Fed hiked today, smack in the face of an Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model forecast of 0.9 percent.