by Mish

Latest forecast: 2.8 percent — September 28, 2016

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2016 is 2.8 percent on September 28, down from 2.9 percent on September 20. The forecast of third-quarter real equipment investment growth fell from 1.5 percent to 0.8 percent after this morning’s advance durable manufacturing report from the U.S. Census Bureau. The forecast of third-quarter real investment residential growth, which now stands at –8.9 percent, declined by 1.3 percentage points on both September 22 and September 26 following the release of housing data on those dates.

Looking Ahead

On Thursday the Census bureau posts an advance report on trade. On Friday, the Personal Income and Outlays report will highlight consumer spending.

Both GDPNow and the FRBNY update their models on Friday. The latest FRBNY Nowcast for 3rd quarter GDP was 2.26%.

Unless this week’s spending and trade reports are good, especially consumer spending, the FRBNY estimate could easily dip below 2%.

Related Articles

Articles 1-3 above are not reflected in the most recent Nowcast. As it stands right now, I am guessing that their guess will be 2.0% to 2.1%.

It will not take much of a push to see a sub-2% reading. A poor spending report could result in an estimate of 1.8%. It will take a decent spending report just to hold things flat.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

3rd Quarter GDP Estimates Collapse

In the wake of today’s economic reports, third-quarter GDP estimates from the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model and the New York Fed Nowcast model each plunged 0.8 percentage points.

Nowcast, GDPNow 2nd Quarter Forecasts Narrow Slightly: What’s Ahead?

On Friday, both the Atlanta Fed and New York Fed updated their GDP 2nd quarter forecasts. The FRBNY Nowcast remained at 1.9% while GDPNow dipped to 2.7% narrowing a once gigantic spread to 0.8 percentage points.

Nowcast 3rd Quarter GDP Estimate 2%, GDPNow 3.7%

We have two revisions coming for second-quarter GDP estimates even as time rolls on. The third-quarter is already a month over. GDPNow has its first estimate, a whopping 3.7%. The GDPNow estimate is 1.7 percentage points higher than Nowcast.

GDPNow 4th Quarter Estimate Sinks to 2.8% from 3.3%: What Happened?

On Dec 19 the GDPNow model estimated fourth-quarter GDP at 3.3%. The forecast is now 2.8%. Let's review the reasons.

GDPNow 1st Quarter Forecast Ticks Up Slightly Despite Growing Trade Imbalance: Expect Trade Howls

Despite poor but not horrendous economic reports today, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model forecast for first quarter GDP ticked up slightly today, from 2.4% to 2.5%

GDPNow 3rd Quarter Forecast Dips to 3%; Nowcast Postponed, I Take a Stab

It’s curious the New York Fed has a blackout on its GDP Model but the Atlanta Fed doesn’t.

GDP Forecasts Dip Again: Forecasts Compared

In the wake of dismal retail sales, first-quarter GDP forecasts by the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model and the FRBNY Nowcast model ticked lower.

Tracking GDPNow Forecasts vs. Reality: What About that Initial 2nd Quarter Estimate?

On May 1, the GDPNow Model came up with an initial forecast of 4.3% for second quarter GDP.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow +2.8% vs. New York Fed Nowcast +1.2%

Following today’s retail sales alleged blowout, to which treasury yields actually declined, comes a big GDP upgrade by the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model vs. a smaller jump by the New York Fed Nowcast Model.