by Mish

Let’s take a look at the latest GDPNow and I will follow up with a guess at what the Nowcast would have been.

We find the latter next Friday.

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2016 is 3.0 percent on September 15, down from 3.3 percent on September 9. The forecast of third-quarter real consumer spending growth declined from 3.4 percent to 3.1 percent after this morning’s retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau. The forecast of third-quarter real government spending growth declined from 1.3 percent to 0.8 percent after Tuesday’s Monthly Treasury Statement from the U.S. Bureau of the Fiscal Service.

FRBNY Nowcast

The New York Fed reports …

We will not be publishing our report on September 16 since the date falls during an FOMC blackout period. Reporting will resume on September 23.September 9, 2016: Highlights

  • The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 2.8% and 1.7% for 2016:Q3 and 2016:Q4, respectively.
  • News from this week’s data releases was small and mixed, having overall a negligible effect on the nowcast.
  • Lower than expected inventories and higher than expected job openings had a small positive effect on the nowcast, while negative news came from ISM nonmanufacturing.

Mish Nowcast Guess

The economic reports have been generally miserable. But if we presume the drop in GDPNow flows through in a similar fashion to the Nowcast, we would have a Nowcast of something like 2.5% for third quarter and 1.5% for fourth quarter.

My guess is 2.4% and 1.4% respectively. Bear in mind reports next week will influence those numbers. However, we will be able to reconstruct my estimates from actuals thanks to Nowcast timeline details.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

GDP Forecasts: GDPNow 3.4%, Nowcast 1.9%

The GDP forecasts by the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model and the New York Fed Nowcast are once again not in the same ballpark.

Nowcast Leapfrogs GDPNow in 1st Quarter GDP Forecast

The latest first quarter GDP estimate by the New York Fed Nowcast jumped to a new high of 3.1%.

GDPNow vs. Nowcast Update

Both the Atlanta Fed and New York Fed updated their GDP model forecasts today. There was little change in either.

3rd Quarter GDP Estimates Collapse

In the wake of today’s economic reports, third-quarter GDP estimates from the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model and the New York Fed Nowcast model each plunged 0.8 percentage points.

Nowcast, GDPNow 2nd Quarter Forecasts Narrow Slightly: What’s Ahead?

On Friday, both the Atlanta Fed and New York Fed updated their GDP 2nd quarter forecasts. The FRBNY Nowcast remained at 1.9% while GDPNow dipped to 2.7% narrowing a once gigantic spread to 0.8 percentage points.

GDPNow 3rd Quarter Estimate Ticks Down to 2.8%: Looking Ahead, What’s in Store for the Forecasts

In the wake of today’s durable goods report and last week’s housing reports the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model for third quarter GDP ticked down 0.1 percentage points to 2.8%.

GDPNow Forecast Dips Slightly to 1.7%, Nowcast Steady

Economic news took a tenth of a percent off the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecasts. The New York Fed Nowcast was stable.

Nowcast 3rd Quarter GDP Estimate 2%, GDPNow 3.7%

We have two revisions coming for second-quarter GDP estimates even as time rolls on. The third-quarter is already a month over. GDPNow has its first estimate, a whopping 3.7%. The GDPNow estimate is 1.7 percentage points higher than Nowcast.

GDP Forecasts Dip Again: Forecasts Compared

In the wake of dismal retail sales, first-quarter GDP forecasts by the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model and the FRBNY Nowcast model ticked lower.