GDPNow and Nowcast 4th-Quarter GDP Estimates Near Convergence: 2.7% vs. 2.6%

GDPNow and Nowcast 4th-Quarter GDP Estimates Near Convergence: 2.7% vs. 2.6%

The GDPNow and Nowcast reports are near convergence with surprisingly little volatility and spread vs past history.
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The GDPNow and Nowcast reports are near convergence with surprisingly little volatility and spread vs past history.

GDPNow vs Nowcast

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Data Sources

Last quarter we saw gaps of 2 percentage points between GDPNow and Nowcast. The spread is now 0.1 percentage point.

One potential problems with both reports is lack of economic data. Thanks to the government shutdown, workers did not produces dozens of reports. Today, the New Home Sales report was skipped for the second month.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

GDPNow, Nowcast Near Convergence in 4th Quarter GDP Estimates

Following months of wide differences between GDP forecast models, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow and the New York Fed Nowcast models are in near convergence at 3.3% and 3.2% respectively.

GDPnow, Nowcast Boost Fourth-Quarter GDP Estimates

GDPNow upped its 4th-quarter GDP estimate to 3.3% from 2.9% a week ago. Nowcast upped its forecast to 4.0% from 3.9%.

FRBNY 4th Quarter GDP Nowcast 1.6% vs. GDPNow 3.1%

In sharp contrast to a GDPNow forecast of 3.1 percent for 4th quarter GDP, the FRBNY Nowcast Model estimates 4th quarter GDP at a mere 1.6 percent.

Third-Quarter GDP Forecasts: GDPNow 2.5%, Nowcast 1.5%

The volatility of GDPNow vs Nowcast is once again on display in recent weeks.

Dueling GDP Estimates: GDPNow vs. FRBNY Nowcast

Both the Atlanta Fed GDPNow and the New York Fed Nowcast updated their models today. Let’s take a look at where they stand for second-quarter GDP.

GDPNow vs Nowcast: Bit of Convergence but Inventory Problem Looms

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast came out yesterday, the New York Fed Nowcast today.

4th Quarter Forecast: Nowcast 3.2% vs GDPNow 3.3% (Down from 4.5% on Nov. 1)

Following the ISM manufacturing report, the GDPNow model upped its 4th quarter GDP forecast from 2.9% to 4.5%. Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Nowcast weighed in with a 3.2% forecast. Also today, GDPNow revised its forecast to 3.3%.

Nowcast 3rd Quarter GDP Estimate 2%, GDPNow 3.7%

We have two revisions coming for second-quarter GDP estimates even as time rolls on. The third-quarter is already a month over. GDPNow has its first estimate, a whopping 3.7%. The GDPNow estimate is 1.7 percentage points higher than Nowcast.

Investigating Curious Anomalies in GDPNow and Nowcast GDP Estimates

As of last Friday, the Atlanta Fed GDFPNow model for the second-quarter GDP stood at 3.4%. In contrast, the FRBNY Nowcast report was 2.2%.