The GDPNow and Nowcast forecasts for GDP are on a similar track this quarter.

The base forecasts are 1.6% and 1.4% respectively, whereas spreads were frequently over a full percentage point in previous quarters.

Real Final Sales

Real final sales represent the true bottom line estimate for the economy. The rest is inventory adjustments that nets to zero over time.

A bottom-line GDP print of 2.6% is nothing to sneeze at.

Rate Cut Odds

Based on real final sales, there should not be a rate cut this month, assuming GDPNow is accurate, but that's quite an assumption.

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Meanwhile, rate cut odds are 100% and Half-Point Rate Cut Odds Explode to 71%.

The Fed tried to walk back expectations of a 50 basis point cut on Friday, but 25 points minimum is a given.

Inventories

I am skeptical of the GDPNow real final sales estimate because of a buildup of inventory.

On July 3, I commented the Manufacturing Sector is Rolling Over But Inventories Keep Piling Up.

Meanwhile, the BIS warns of Diminishing Returns of Monetary Policy, Zombies, Junk, Complacency.

The crosscurrents are very strong this month

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

GDPNow and Nowcast Estimates Follow Similar Track This Quarter

The current GDPNow and Nowcast GDP estimates are 1.3% and 1.5% respectively.

GDPnow, Nowcast Boost Fourth-Quarter GDP Estimates

GDPNow upped its 4th-quarter GDP estimate to 3.3% from 2.9% a week ago. Nowcast upped its forecast to 4.0% from 3.9%.

Nowcast 3rd Quarter GDP Estimate 2%, GDPNow 3.7%

We have two revisions coming for second-quarter GDP estimates even as time rolls on. The third-quarter is already a month over. GDPNow has its first estimate, a whopping 3.7%. The GDPNow estimate is 1.7 percentage points higher than Nowcast.

Final Model Forecasts for First Quarter GDP: GDPNow 2.0%, Nowcast 2.9%

The advance (first) estimate of first-quarter GDP is published tomorrow. The GDPNow final estimate is 2.0%, Nowcast 2.9%

Inventory Adjustment Add 2 Percentage Points to GDPNow Estimate

The gap between GDPNow and Nowcast is 2.6 percentage points, the widest ever. Inventories pad the GDPNow estimate.

Cusp of Recession: GDPNow 1.4% vs Nowcast 2.1%, Nowcast 2019 Q1 is Only 1.2%

After trailing GDPNow for nearly the entire quarter, Nowcast now Lead GDPNow by one full percentage point.

GDPNow, Nowcast Near Convergence in 4th Quarter GDP Estimates

Following months of wide differences between GDP forecast models, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow and the New York Fed Nowcast models are in near convergence at 3.3% and 3.2% respectively.

Nowcast, GDPNow 2nd Quarter Forecasts Narrow Slightly: What’s Ahead?

On Friday, both the Atlanta Fed and New York Fed updated their GDP 2nd quarter forecasts. The FRBNY Nowcast remained at 1.9% while GDPNow dipped to 2.7% narrowing a once gigantic spread to 0.8 percentage points.

GDPNow 4th Quarter Estimate Sinks to 2.8% from 3.3%: What Happened?

On Dec 19 the GDPNow model estimated fourth-quarter GDP at 3.3%. The forecast is now 2.8%. Let's review the reasons.