For a change, the GDPNow and Nowcast forecasts for GDP are on similar tracks this quarter.

The base forecasts are 1.3% and 1.5% wheras we have seen spreads well over a full percentage points in previous quarters.

Real Final Sales

Real final sales is the true bottom line estimate for the economy. The rest is inventory adjustments that nets to zero over time.

Rate Cut Odds

On the basis of real final sales there should not be a rate cut this month, assuming GDPNow is accurate, but it might not be.


Nonetheless, despite a strong jobs report July Rate Cut Odds are Still 100%.


I am skeptical of the GDPNow real final sales estimates because of a buildup of inventory.

On July 3, I commented the Manufacturing Sector is Rolling Over But Inventories Keep Piling Up.

Meanwhile, the BIS warns of Diminishing Returns of Monetary Policy, Zombies, Junk, Complacency.

The crosscurrents are very strong this month and jobs have been volatile for five months as well.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

GDPNow and Nowcast Estimates Continue Similar Second-Quarter Track

Only 0.2 percentage points separate the GDPNow and Nowcast estimates for the 2nd quarter. But what about inventories?

GDPnow, Nowcast Boost Fourth-Quarter GDP Estimates

GDPNow upped its 4th-quarter GDP estimate to 3.3% from 2.9% a week ago. Nowcast upped its forecast to 4.0% from 3.9%.

Final Model Forecasts for First Quarter GDP: GDPNow 2.0%, Nowcast 2.9%

The advance (first) estimate of first-quarter GDP is published tomorrow. The GDPNow final estimate is 2.0%, Nowcast 2.9%

GDPNow, Nowcast Near Convergence in 4th Quarter GDP Estimates

Following months of wide differences between GDP forecast models, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow and the New York Fed Nowcast models are in near convergence at 3.3% and 3.2% respectively.

Nowcast 3rd Quarter GDP Estimate 2%, GDPNow 3.7%

We have two revisions coming for second-quarter GDP estimates even as time rolls on. The third-quarter is already a month over. GDPNow has its first estimate, a whopping 3.7%. The GDPNow estimate is 1.7 percentage points higher than Nowcast.

First Estimate of Second-Quarter GDP at 2.1% Topping Consensus

Real GDP at 2.1% topped the consensus estimate of 1.9%, the GDPNow forecast of 1.3, and Nowcast at 1.5% (revised today).

GDPNow 4th Quarter Estimate Sinks to 2.8% from 3.3%: What Happened?

On Dec 19 the GDPNow model estimated fourth-quarter GDP at 3.3%. The forecast is now 2.8%. Let's review the reasons.

GDPNow Initial Estimate of 1st-Quarter GDP: 0.3 Percent

The GDPNow initial forecast for 1st-quarter 2019 GDP is a minuscule 0.3%.

Final GDP Estimates for GDPNow and Nowcast Tick Lower

Early in the quarter, there was talk of a Trumpian 5% GDP in the third quarter. The low- to mid-3s is more likely.