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For a change, the GDPNow and Nowcast forecasts for GDP are on similar tracks this quarter.

The base forecasts are 1.3% and 1.5% wheras we have seen spreads well over a full percentage points in previous quarters.

Real Final Sales

Real final sales is the true bottom line estimate for the economy. The rest is inventory adjustments that nets to zero over time.

Rate Cut Odds

On the basis of real final sales there should not be a rate cut this month, assuming GDPNow is accurate, but it might not be.

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Nonetheless, despite a strong jobs report July Rate Cut Odds are Still 100%.


I am skeptical of the GDPNow real final sales estimates because of a buildup of inventory.

On July 3, I commented the Manufacturing Sector is Rolling Over But Inventories Keep Piling Up.

Meanwhile, the BIS warns of Diminishing Returns of Monetary Policy, Zombies, Junk, Complacency.

The crosscurrents are very strong this month and jobs have been volatile for five months as well.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock