by Mish

Color me truly skeptical because the ISM and Fed regional reports have been overly optimistic for some time vs. actual hard data.

Nonetheless, GDPNow bumped its forecast for 1st quarter GDP from 0.9% to 1.2% based on the ISM report.

New orders are rapidly expanding, inventories are shrinking, and production is up. Price pressures hit a new upside high.

GDPNow Latest Forecast: 1.2 Percent — April 3, 2017

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 1.2 percent on April 3, up from 0.9 percent on March 31. The forecasts for first-quarter real consumer spending growth and real nonresidential equipment investment growth increased from 0.8 percent and 7.4 percent to 1.2 percent and 9.0 percent, respectively, after this morning’s Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management.

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How Come?

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Some of these diffusion reports have gone haywire. Actual factory output does not match these reports.

I believe GDPNow made a mistake in bumping up its GDP forecast. On Friday we find out if Nowcast did the same.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

First Quarter GDP Second Estimate 1.2 Percent: Mish vs. Consensus

This morning, the BEA revised its estimate of first-quarter GDP to 1.2% from 0.7%. The Econoday consensus estimate was 0.8%, in a range of 0.7% to 1.0%.

1st Quarter GDP Estimates: ZeroHedge, Mish, GDPNow, Nowcast, ISM, Markit

On Friday, April 28, the BEA will release its preliminary estimate for first quarter GDP.

2nd Quarter GDP Estimates from ISM and Markit

On July 3, we discussed the divergence between the Markit and ISM diffusion indexes for manufacturing. Today, let’s look at ISM Nonmanufacturing vs Markit Services.

GDPNow Estimate Unchanged Following Trade and Factory Orders Reports

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model remains unchanged, at 1.2%, following today’s international trade and factory orders reports.

Six GDP Estimates: ZeroHedge, Mish, GDPNow, Nowcast, ISM, Markit

On Wednesday, I asked a handful of bloggers and economic writers their estimate for first quarter GDP.

Markit PMI vs. ISM Fantasyland GDP Projection: Stagflation Lite?

The discrepancy between the ISM’s Report on Business and Markit’s Manufacturing PMI assessment of the economy widened today.

Nowcast 3rd Quarter GDP Estimate 2%, GDPNow 3.7%

We have two revisions coming for second-quarter GDP estimates even as time rolls on. The third-quarter is already a month over. GDPNow has its first estimate, a whopping 3.7%. The GDPNow estimate is 1.7 percentage points higher than Nowcast.

ISM-PMI Divergence Widens: Markit Estimates 2nd Quarter GDP at 1.1%, Says Profit Squeeze Underway

Unlike their counterparts at the ISM, Markit sees growth in both services and manufacturing weakening with U.S. private sector growth at a seven-month low in April.

Inventories: Another Hit to GDP Estimates for First Quarter

Wholesale inventories declined 0.1% for March while retail inventories rose 0.4% according to Advance Indicators from the Census Department.