Skip to main content

As has been typical for two quarters, there is a wide gap between the GDPNow forecast of 3.9% and the Nowcast forecast of 2.1%.

Once again, Nowcast is likely way too low.

Watch Real Final Sales

GDPNow is projecting a huge inventory build in the third quarter. Its base forecast is 3.9% but real final sales, the bottom line estimate of GDP is only 1.6%.

Scroll to Continue

RECOMMENDED ARTICLES

If accurate, an inventory build will add 2.3 percentage points to GDP at a time when sales and housing are in the midst of a slide.

There are a few more reports next week, so expect the GDPNow estimate to change a bit.

The BEA will report a number before Nowcast updates its estimate, a peculiar way of doing business even though I do not believe they take advantage.

I will post a guess on Thursday. The GDP report is due Friday.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock