As has been typical for two quarters, there is a wide gap between the GDPNow forecast of 3.9% and the Nowcast forecast of 2.1%.

Once again, Nowcast is likely way too low.

Watch Real Final Sales

GDPNow is projecting a huge inventory build in the third quarter. Its base forecast is 3.9% but real final sales, the bottom line estimate of GDP is only 1.6%.

RECOMMENDED ARTICLES

If accurate, an inventory build will add 2.3 percentage points to GDP at a time when sales and housing are in the midst of a slide.

There are a few more reports next week, so expect the GDPNow estimate to change a bit.

The BEA will report a number before Nowcast updates its estimate, a peculiar way of doing business even though I do not believe they take advantage.

I will post a guess on Thursday. The GDP report is due Friday.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

GDPNow vs Nowcast: Little Change From Week Ago, 3.9% vs 2.8%

From a week ago, the GDP forecasts moved little on the economic news. Nowcast was unchanged. GDPNow rose 0.1 pp to 3.9%.

Nowcast Ends with 3.9% 4th-Quarter GDP forecast, 1st Quarter at 3.1%

Nowcast does its final forecast on the day GDP comes out. It concludes it's 4th-quarter forecast at 3.9%.

Final Model Forecasts for First Quarter GDP: GDPNow 2.0%, Nowcast 2.9%

The advance (first) estimate of first-quarter GDP is published tomorrow. The GDPNow final estimate is 2.0%, Nowcast 2.9%

Dueling Forecasts: GDPNow 4.2% vs Nowcast 1.8%

For the first quarter, the initial GDPNow forecast was 2.3% on January 30, 2017. The GDPNow forecast spiked quickly to 3.4% then crashed to a final estimate of 0.2% on April 27.

Nowcast GDP Forecast Surges, GDPNow Forecast is Down a Bit

The GDPNow and Nowcast GDP forecasts for the first quarter of 2020 converged quite a bit today.

GDPNow Forecast Dips to 2.3%: Real Final Sales 1.3%

The discrepancy between GDPNow and Nowcast widened again. Importantly, GDPNow forecasts real final sales of just 1.3%.

GDPNow Forecast Dips Slightly to 1.7%, Nowcast Steady

Economic news took a tenth of a percent off the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecasts. The New York Fed Nowcast was stable.

Nowcast, GDPNow 2nd Quarter Forecasts Narrow Slightly: What’s Ahead?

On Friday, both the Atlanta Fed and New York Fed updated their GDP 2nd quarter forecasts. The FRBNY Nowcast remained at 1.9% while GDPNow dipped to 2.7% narrowing a once gigantic spread to 0.8 percentage points.

GDPNow Forecast Surges to 4.7%: Spread to Nowcast an Amazing 2.7 Percentage Pts

Following today's ISM and construction reports, the GDPNow forecast for 3rd-Quarter GDP rose to 4.7%. Nowcast is 2.0%.