The divergence between GDPNow and the New York Fed Nowcast GDP estimates widened to 0.9 percentage points in the past week.

GDPNow Latest Forecast: 1.8 Percent — March 16, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2018 is 1.8 percent on March 16, down from 1.9 percent on March 14. The nowcast of first-quarter real private fixed-investment growth increased from 2.4 percent to 3.3 percent after this morning’s new residential construction release from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning's industrial production and capacity utilization release from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. This increase was more than offset by the modest downward revisions to the nowcasts of the contributions of real consumer spending, real net exports, and real inventory investment to first-quarter real GDP growth.

Nowcast Latest Forecast: 2.7 Percent — March 16, 2018

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GDPnow vs Nowcast


Nowcast is impervious to big change but GDPNow isn't.

Following the Retail Sales numbers on March 14, Nowcast declined 0.18 percentage points. On the same data, GDPNow decline 0.60 percentage points.

Real Final Sales

Real final sales is the bottom line GDP estimate. Inventories account for the difference between real final sales and the baseline estimate.

Nearly two months of data is in. The first quarter rates to be very weak.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

GDPNow "Real Final Sales" Forecast Remains 1.1%

GDPNow and Nowcast GDP estimates came out today. I believe the GDPNow estimate is closer to the right track.

GDPNow "Real Final Sales" Forecast Dips to 1.6%

Poor housing reports and poor economic reports on durable goods and international trade took a toll on GDP estimates.

GDPNow Forecast Dips to 2.3%: Real Final Sales 1.3%

The discrepancy between GDPNow and Nowcast widened again. Importantly, GDPNow forecasts real final sales of just 1.3%.

GDPNow Real Final Sales Estimate Dives to 1.1%

Following today's retail sales numbers, the GDPNow forecast fell to 1.9% with real final sales at 1.1%

GDPNow Forecast Drops Slightly to 4.0%: Real Final Sales Estimate is 3.3%

The GDPNow forecast is 4.0, down from 4.1% on May 1.

GDPNow Real Final Sales Forecast Slips to 0.9%

If you thought today's inventory build numbers would add to GDP estimates, you thought wrong.

GDPNow Forecast Dips Slightly to 1.7%, Nowcast Steady

Economic news took a tenth of a percent off the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecasts. The New York Fed Nowcast was stable.

GDPNow Forecast Slips Slightly Despite Retail Sales Rebound

Despite a rebound in retail Sales the GDPNow forecast slips to 1.9 percent. Real final sales are 0.9 percent.

Dueling Forecasts: GDPNow 4.2% vs Nowcast 1.8%

For the first quarter, the initial GDPNow forecast was 2.3% on January 30, 2017. The GDPNow forecast spiked quickly to 3.4% then crashed to a final estimate of 0.2% on April 27.